How Do Ex Ante Simulations Compare with Ex Post Evaluations? Evidence from the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs

This paper compares the ex ante simulation of the impacts of conditional cash transfer programs against the ex post estimates of impacts obtained from experimental evaluations. Using data on program-eligible households in treatment areas from the s...

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Main Authors:	Leite, Phillippe, Narayan, Ambar, Skoufias, Emmanuel
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	2012
Subjects:	AGE GROUPS ARITHMETIC BASELINE SURVEYS BENEFICIARIES CARE CENTERS CHILD LABOR CONTROL GROUPS COUNTERFACTUAL DATA COLLECTION DATA REQUIREMENTS DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS DROPOUT RATES ENROLLMENT ENROLLMENT RATE ENROLLMENT RATES ENROLMENT RATE ENROLMENT RATES ESTIMATORS EVALUATION METHODS EVALUATION RESULTS EVALUATION STUDIES EX ANTE ANALYSIS EX POST EVALUATION EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES EXPERIMENTS FORECASTS GIRLS HOUSEHOLD INCOME HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMPACT EVALUATION INCOME LANDLESS HOUSEHOLDS METHODOLOGY MODELING NUTRITION OUTCOME INDICATORS PER CAPITA INCOME POVERTY ALLEVIATION POVERTY MEASURES POVERTY REDUCTION PRIMARY SCHOOL PRIMARY SCHOOL AGE PRIMARY SCHOOL STUDENTS PRIMARY SCHOOLING PROGRAM EFFECTS PROGRAM EVALUATION PROGRAM IMPACTS PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION PROGRAMS QUASIEXPERIMENTAL METHODS RELIABILITY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERS RESEARCHERS RURAL AREAS SAMPLE SIZE SCENARIO SCENARIOS SCHOOL ATTENDANCE SCHOOLING SCHOOLS SELECTION BIAS SIMULATION SIMULATIONS SURVEY DATA TARGETING TECHNIQUES TRAINING PROGRAMME TRAINING PROGRAMS TRANSPARENCY TREATMENT EFFECTS TREATMENT GROUPS UNEMPLOYMENT VALIDITY WAGES WEIGHTING
Online Access:	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20110623162735 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3469

id	okr-10986-3469
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spelling	okr-10986-34692021-04-23T14:02:10Z How Do Ex Ante Simulations Compare with Ex Post Evaluations? Evidence from the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs Leite, Phillippe Narayan, Ambar Skoufias, Emmanuel AGE GROUPS ARITHMETIC BASELINE SURVEYS BENEFICIARIES CARE CENTERS CHILD LABOR CONTROL GROUPS COUNTERFACTUAL DATA COLLECTION DATA REQUIREMENTS DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS DROPOUT RATES ENROLLMENT ENROLLMENT RATE ENROLLMENT RATES ENROLMENT RATE ENROLMENT RATES ESTIMATORS EVALUATION METHODS EVALUATION RESULTS EVALUATION STUDIES EX ANTE ANALYSIS EX POST EVALUATION EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES EXPERIMENTS FORECASTS GIRLS HOUSEHOLD INCOME HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMPACT EVALUATION INCOME LANDLESS HOUSEHOLDS METHODOLOGY MODELING NUTRITION OUTCOME INDICATORS PER CAPITA INCOME POVERTY ALLEVIATION POVERTY MEASURES POVERTY REDUCTION PRIMARY SCHOOL PRIMARY SCHOOL AGE PRIMARY SCHOOL STUDENTS PRIMARY SCHOOLING PROGRAM EFFECTS PROGRAM EVALUATION PROGRAM IMPACTS PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION PROGRAMS QUASIEXPERIMENTAL METHODS RELIABILITY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERS RESEARCHERS RURAL AREAS SAMPLE SIZE SCENARIO SCENARIOS SCHOOL ATTENDANCE SCHOOLING SCHOOLS SELECTION BIAS SIMULATION SIMULATIONS SURVEY DATA TARGETING TECHNIQUES TRAINING PROGRAMME TRAINING PROGRAMS TRANSPARENCY TREATMENT EFFECTS TREATMENT GROUPS UNEMPLOYMENT VALIDITY WAGES WEIGHTING This paper compares the ex ante simulation of the impacts of conditional cash transfer programs against the ex post estimates of impacts obtained from experimental evaluations. Using data on program-eligible households in treatment areas from the same baseline surveys that are used for experimental evaluations of conditional cash transfer programs in Mexico and Ecuador, the authors use a micro-simulation model to derive ex ante estimates of the impact of the programs on enrollment rates and poverty. The estimates reveal that ex ante predictions of certain impacts of conditional cash transfer programs match up well against the benchmark estimates of ex post experimental studies. The findings seem to support the use of this model to assess the potential impact and cost efficiency of a conditional cash transfer program ex ante, in order to inform decisions about how the program would be designed. 2012-03-19T18:03:01Z 2012-03-19T18:03:01Z 2011-06-01 http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20110623162735 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3469 English Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5705 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Latin America & Caribbean Latin America & Caribbean The World Region The World Region North America America
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	AGE GROUPS ARITHMETIC BASELINE SURVEYS BENEFICIARIES CARE CENTERS CHILD LABOR CONTROL GROUPS COUNTERFACTUAL DATA COLLECTION DATA REQUIREMENTS DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS DROPOUT RATES ENROLLMENT ENROLLMENT RATE ENROLLMENT RATES ENROLMENT RATE ENROLMENT RATES ESTIMATORS EVALUATION METHODS EVALUATION RESULTS EVALUATION STUDIES EX ANTE ANALYSIS EX POST EVALUATION EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES EXPERIMENTS FORECASTS GIRLS HOUSEHOLD INCOME HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMPACT EVALUATION INCOME LANDLESS HOUSEHOLDS METHODOLOGY MODELING NUTRITION OUTCOME INDICATORS PER CAPITA INCOME POVERTY ALLEVIATION POVERTY MEASURES POVERTY REDUCTION PRIMARY SCHOOL PRIMARY SCHOOL AGE PRIMARY SCHOOL STUDENTS PRIMARY SCHOOLING PROGRAM EFFECTS PROGRAM EVALUATION PROGRAM IMPACTS PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION PROGRAMS QUASIEXPERIMENTAL METHODS RELIABILITY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERS RESEARCHERS RURAL AREAS SAMPLE SIZE SCENARIO SCENARIOS SCHOOL ATTENDANCE SCHOOLING SCHOOLS SELECTION BIAS SIMULATION SIMULATIONS SURVEY DATA TARGETING TECHNIQUES TRAINING PROGRAMME TRAINING PROGRAMS TRANSPARENCY TREATMENT EFFECTS TREATMENT GROUPS UNEMPLOYMENT VALIDITY WAGES WEIGHTING
spellingShingle	AGE GROUPS ARITHMETIC BASELINE SURVEYS BENEFICIARIES CARE CENTERS CHILD LABOR CONTROL GROUPS COUNTERFACTUAL DATA COLLECTION DATA REQUIREMENTS DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS DROPOUT RATES ENROLLMENT ENROLLMENT RATE ENROLLMENT RATES ENROLMENT RATE ENROLMENT RATES ESTIMATORS EVALUATION METHODS EVALUATION RESULTS EVALUATION STUDIES EX ANTE ANALYSIS EX POST EVALUATION EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES EXPERIMENTS FORECASTS GIRLS HOUSEHOLD INCOME HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMPACT EVALUATION INCOME LANDLESS HOUSEHOLDS METHODOLOGY MODELING NUTRITION OUTCOME INDICATORS PER CAPITA INCOME POVERTY ALLEVIATION POVERTY MEASURES POVERTY REDUCTION PRIMARY SCHOOL PRIMARY SCHOOL AGE PRIMARY SCHOOL STUDENTS PRIMARY SCHOOLING PROGRAM EFFECTS PROGRAM EVALUATION PROGRAM IMPACTS PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION PROGRAMS QUASIEXPERIMENTAL METHODS RELIABILITY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERS RESEARCHERS RURAL AREAS SAMPLE SIZE SCENARIO SCENARIOS SCHOOL ATTENDANCE SCHOOLING SCHOOLS SELECTION BIAS SIMULATION SIMULATIONS SURVEY DATA TARGETING TECHNIQUES TRAINING PROGRAMME TRAINING PROGRAMS TRANSPARENCY TREATMENT EFFECTS TREATMENT GROUPS UNEMPLOYMENT VALIDITY WAGES WEIGHTING Leite, Phillippe Narayan, Ambar Skoufias, Emmanuel How Do Ex Ante Simulations Compare with Ex Post Evaluations? Evidence from the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
geographic_facet	Latin America & Caribbean Latin America & Caribbean The World Region The World Region North America America
relation	Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5705
description	This paper compares the ex ante simulation of the impacts of conditional cash transfer programs against the ex post estimates of impacts obtained from experimental evaluations. Using data on program-eligible households in treatment areas from the same baseline surveys that are used for experimental evaluations of conditional cash transfer programs in Mexico and Ecuador, the authors use a micro-simulation model to derive ex ante estimates of the impact of the programs on enrollment rates and poverty. The estimates reveal that ex ante predictions of certain impacts of conditional cash transfer programs match up well against the benchmark estimates of ex post experimental studies. The findings seem to support the use of this model to assess the potential impact and cost efficiency of a conditional cash transfer program ex ante, in order to inform decisions about how the program would be designed.
format	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author	Leite, Phillippe Narayan, Ambar Skoufias, Emmanuel
author_facet	Leite, Phillippe Narayan, Ambar Skoufias, Emmanuel
author_sort	Leite, Phillippe
title	How Do Ex Ante Simulations Compare with Ex Post Evaluations? Evidence from the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
title_short	How Do Ex Ante Simulations Compare with Ex Post Evaluations? Evidence from the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
title_full	How Do Ex Ante Simulations Compare with Ex Post Evaluations? Evidence from the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
title_fullStr	How Do Ex Ante Simulations Compare with Ex Post Evaluations? Evidence from the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
title_full_unstemmed	How Do Ex Ante Simulations Compare with Ex Post Evaluations? Evidence from the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
title_sort	how do ex ante simulations compare with ex post evaluations? evidence from the impact of conditional cash transfer programs
publishDate	2012
url	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20110623162735 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3469
_version_	1764387050725834752

How Do Ex Ante Simulations Compare with Ex Post Evaluations? Evidence from the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs

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