Escaping the Low-Growth Trap : Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum

Guinea-Bissau’s massive economic potential has not so far translated into better livelihoods for its population. Growth per capita has averaged less than 1 percent per year over 2000-2019. This chapter provides an in-depth analysis of the factors b...

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Main Author:	World Bank
Format:	Report
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2020
Subjects:	FRAGILITY POLITICAL INSTABILITY ECONOMIC GROWTH GOVERNANCE PUBLIC SECTOR REFORM HUMAN CAPITAL EDUCATION ENROLLMENT COMPLETION RATES LABOR MARKET PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT EMPLOYMENT JOB CREATION GENDER EQUALITY DIVERSIFICATION
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/473261604385132681/Guinea-Bissau-Country-Economic-Memorandum-Escaping-the-Low-Growth-Trap http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34752

id	okr-10986-34752
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-347522021-05-25T09:50:24Z Escaping the Low-Growth Trap : Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum World Bank FRAGILITY POLITICAL INSTABILITY ECONOMIC GROWTH GOVERNANCE PUBLIC SECTOR REFORM HUMAN CAPITAL EDUCATION ENROLLMENT COMPLETION RATES LABOR MARKET PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT EMPLOYMENT JOB CREATION GENDER EQUALITY DIVERSIFICATION Guinea-Bissau’s massive economic potential has not so far translated into better livelihoods for its population. Growth per capita has averaged less than 1 percent per year over 2000-2019. This chapter provides an in-depth analysis of the factors behind the economic stagnation. An interplay of three constraints have impeded sustained high growth. First, the low and volatile growth performance is linked to fragility and political instability, which, together with a poorly diversified economy, with raw cashew nuts accounting for 95-98 percent of export earnings, help explain the stop-go growth cycle. Second, human capital accumulation remains low. An acute shortage of a skilled workforce is a major constraint to inclusive growth. The education system is marked by alarmingly low levels of learning. Third, private investment is particularly low—the second lowest in Africa. Years of underinvestment in infrastructure, energy, and human capital are holding the country back from achieving strong, enduring and inclusive growth. The chapter concludes by highlighting how the COVID-19 crisis exacerbates these constraints and discusses areas that could support sustainable growth. The chapter is organized as follows: section 1.1 presents a brief overview of the political and social context. Section 1.2 puts recent growth into historical and comparative perspective. Section 1.3 presents analysis that helps explain the low-growth trap and identifies possible areas that Guinea-Bissau could pursue to escape this trap. Finally, Section 1.4 discusses the economic impact of COVID-19 and potential pathways to recovery. 2020-11-09T20:09:30Z 2020-11-09T20:09:30Z 2020-11-02 Report http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/473261604385132681/Guinea-Bissau-Country-Economic-Memorandum-Escaping-the-Low-Growth-Trap http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34752 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Economic & Sector Work Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum Africa Guinea-Bissau
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	FRAGILITY POLITICAL INSTABILITY ECONOMIC GROWTH GOVERNANCE PUBLIC SECTOR REFORM HUMAN CAPITAL EDUCATION ENROLLMENT COMPLETION RATES LABOR MARKET PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT EMPLOYMENT JOB CREATION GENDER EQUALITY DIVERSIFICATION
spellingShingle	FRAGILITY POLITICAL INSTABILITY ECONOMIC GROWTH GOVERNANCE PUBLIC SECTOR REFORM HUMAN CAPITAL EDUCATION ENROLLMENT COMPLETION RATES LABOR MARKET PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT EMPLOYMENT JOB CREATION GENDER EQUALITY DIVERSIFICATION World Bank Escaping the Low-Growth Trap : Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum
geographic_facet	Africa Guinea-Bissau
description	Guinea-Bissau’s massive economic potential has not so far translated into better livelihoods for its population. Growth per capita has averaged less than 1 percent per year over 2000-2019. This chapter provides an in-depth analysis of the factors behind the economic stagnation. An interplay of three constraints have impeded sustained high growth. First, the low and volatile growth performance is linked to fragility and political instability, which, together with a poorly diversified economy, with raw cashew nuts accounting for 95-98 percent of export earnings, help explain the stop-go growth cycle. Second, human capital accumulation remains low. An acute shortage of a skilled workforce is a major constraint to inclusive growth. The education system is marked by alarmingly low levels of learning. Third, private investment is particularly low—the second lowest in Africa. Years of underinvestment in infrastructure, energy, and human capital are holding the country back from achieving strong, enduring and inclusive growth. The chapter concludes by highlighting how the COVID-19 crisis exacerbates these constraints and discusses areas that could support sustainable growth. The chapter is organized as follows: section 1.1 presents a brief overview of the political and social context. Section 1.2 puts recent growth into historical and comparative perspective. Section 1.3 presents analysis that helps explain the low-growth trap and identifies possible areas that Guinea-Bissau could pursue to escape this trap. Finally, Section 1.4 discusses the economic impact of COVID-19 and potential pathways to recovery.
format	Report
author	World Bank
author_facet	World Bank
author_sort	World Bank
title	Escaping the Low-Growth Trap : Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum
title_short	Escaping the Low-Growth Trap : Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum
title_full	Escaping the Low-Growth Trap : Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum
title_fullStr	Escaping the Low-Growth Trap : Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum
title_full_unstemmed	Escaping the Low-Growth Trap : Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum
title_sort	escaping the low-growth trap : guinea-bissau country economic memorandum
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2020
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/473261604385132681/Guinea-Bissau-Country-Economic-Memorandum-Escaping-the-Low-Growth-Trap http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34752
_version_	1764481580778127360

Escaping the Low-Growth Trap : Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum

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