A Reappraisal of the Migration-Development Nexus : Testing the Robustness of the Migration Transition Hypothesis
This paper tests the migration transition hypothesis that emigration flows first increase and later decrease with a country’s economic development. Using a migration version of the gravity model, this hypothesis is tested on a global panel data set...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/786201611170919983/A-Reappraisal-of-the-Migration-Development-Nexus-Testing-the-Robustness-of-the-Migration-Transition-Hypothesis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35032 |
| Summary: | This paper tests the migration
transition hypothesis that emigration flows first increase
and later decrease with a country’s economic development.
Using a migration version of the gravity model, this
hypothesis is tested on a global panel data set comprising
180 origin and destination countries and a 50-year timeframe
(1970-2020). This is the most extensive panel data set used
so far to test the migration transition hypothesis. The
results confirm the existence of an inverted U-shaped
relationship between development and emigration within a
cross-country panel setting. Nevertheless, the migration
hump cannot be interpreted as a causal relationship: for a
given low-income country, an increase in economic
development is not found to lead to higher emigration. For a
subsample of 44 countries that have transitioned from
low-income to middle-income status, emigration has rather
declined with economic development. The migration transition
hypothesis is therefore unfounded. Instead, the migration
hump appears to be driven by an underlying cross-sectional
pattern that cannot be fully controlled: middle-income
countries tend to exhibit higher emigration rates than low-
or high-income countries. The findings of this paper have
important policy implications: development programs can
simultaneously promote economic development and reduce emigration. |
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