COVID-19, Poverty, and Social Safety Net Response in Zambia
What has the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic been on poverty in Zambia, and how can social protection programs mitigate these effects? This paper estimates the pre-pandemic poverty level in Zambia and then simulates the distributional impact of COV...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2021
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/858911615226832335/COVID-19-Poverty-and-Social-Safety-Net-Response-in-Zambia http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35249 |
| Summary: | What has the impact of the COVID-19
pandemic been on poverty in Zambia, and how can social
protection programs mitigate these effects? This paper
estimates the pre-pandemic poverty level in Zambia and then
simulates the distributional impact of COVID-19 in the
country. The paper also estimates the impact of a social
cash transfer program that led the COVID response, on
poverty levels. In the absence of recent nationally
representative household survey data, this is done by
updating the consumption distribution in the 2015 Living
Conditions Monitoring Survey using annual real per capita
gross domestic product growth rates for specific sectors.
The study shows that the national poverty headcount rate
increased from 54.4 percent in 2015 to 55.8 percent in 2019,
and this change was driven entirely by rural areas. By
contrast, the economic impact of COVID-19 has
disproportionately impacted urban areas and exacerbated the
already high poverty levels, with the poverty headcount
increasing to 57.6 percent in 2020. Expanding and enhancing
cash transfers have been a key policy lever that many
countries have used to mitigate the negative economic
consequences of the pandemic. Simulations in Zambia suggest
that a fully operational social cash transfer program with
the current and proposed enhanced transfer amounts has the
potential to reduce poverty significantly – by four and six
percentage points, respectively. Beyond this specific
analysis, the paper makes a case for the innovative use of
existing data to inform adaptive or shock responsive social
protection, even in largely data poor environments. |
|---|