Projecting the Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Projecting the Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The highly uncertain evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, influenced in part by government actions, social behavior, and vaccine-related developments, will play a critical role in shaping the global recovery’s strength and durability. This paper dev...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Guenette, Justin-Damien, Yamazaki, Takefumi
Format: Working Paper
Language:English
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2021
Subjects:
CORONAVIRUS
COVID-19
PANDEMIC IMPACT
ECONOMIC SHOCK
BUSINESS CYCLE
ECONOMETRIC MODEL
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/718991616433868772/Projecting-the-Economic-Consequences-of-the-COVID-19-Pandemic
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35304
id okr-10986-35304
recordtype oai_dc
spelling okr-10986-353042022-09-20T00:09:13Z Projecting the Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic Guenette, Justin-Damien Yamazaki, Takefumi CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 PANDEMIC IMPACT ECONOMIC SHOCK BUSINESS CYCLE ECONOMETRIC MODEL The highly uncertain evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, influenced in part by government actions, social behavior, and vaccine-related developments, will play a critical role in shaping the global recovery’s strength and durability. This paper develops a modeling approach to embed pandemic scenarios and the rollout of a vaccine in a macroeconometric model and illustrates the impact of different pandemic- and vaccine-related assumptions on growth outcomes. The pandemic and the measures to contain it, including vaccine deployment, are assumed to be represented by consumption shocks in a macroeconometric model. In the baseline scenario, social distancing and a gradual vaccination process allow policy makers to make significant inroads in containing the pandemic. In a downside scenario, insufficient pandemic control efforts accompanied by delayed vaccination leads to persistently higher infection levels and a materially worse growth outcome. In contrast, in an upside scenario, effective management of the pandemic combined with rapid vaccine deployment would set the stage for stronger growth outcomes. 2021-03-25T14:10:12Z 2021-03-25T14:10:12Z 2021-03 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/718991616433868772/Projecting-the-Economic-Consequences-of-the-COVID-19-Pandemic http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35304 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9589 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
topic CORONAVIRUS
COVID-19
PANDEMIC IMPACT
ECONOMIC SHOCK
BUSINESS CYCLE
ECONOMETRIC MODEL
spellingShingle CORONAVIRUS
COVID-19
PANDEMIC IMPACT
ECONOMIC SHOCK
BUSINESS CYCLE
ECONOMETRIC MODEL
Guenette, Justin-Damien
Yamazaki, Takefumi
Projecting the Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic
relation Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9589
description The highly uncertain evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, influenced in part by government actions, social behavior, and vaccine-related developments, will play a critical role in shaping the global recovery’s strength and durability. This paper develops a modeling approach to embed pandemic scenarios and the rollout of a vaccine in a macroeconometric model and illustrates the impact of different pandemic- and vaccine-related assumptions on growth outcomes. The pandemic and the measures to contain it, including vaccine deployment, are assumed to be represented by consumption shocks in a macroeconometric model. In the baseline scenario, social distancing and a gradual vaccination process allow policy makers to make significant inroads in containing the pandemic. In a downside scenario, insufficient pandemic control efforts accompanied by delayed vaccination leads to persistently higher infection levels and a materially worse growth outcome. In contrast, in an upside scenario, effective management of the pandemic combined with rapid vaccine deployment would set the stage for stronger growth outcomes.
format Working Paper
author Guenette, Justin-Damien
Yamazaki, Takefumi
author_facet Guenette, Justin-Damien
Yamazaki, Takefumi
author_sort Guenette, Justin-Damien
title Projecting the Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic
title_short Projecting the Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic
title_full Projecting the Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic
title_fullStr Projecting the Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic
title_full_unstemmed Projecting the Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic
title_sort projecting the economic consequences of the covid-19 pandemic
publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate 2021
url http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/718991616433868772/Projecting-the-Economic-Consequences-of-the-COVID-19-Pandemic
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35304
_version_ 1764482754514255872

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