How to End the COVID-19 Pandemic by March 2022
How can the world reach herd immunity against COVID-19 before the second anniversary of the pandemic, or March 2022? A study of vaccine demand and supply answers this question. A target of vaccinating 60 percent of the population in each country by...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/181611618494084337/How-to-End-the-COVID-19-Pandemic-by-March-2022 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35454 |
| Summary: | How can the world reach herd immunity
against COVID-19 before the second anniversary of the
pandemic, or March 2022? A study of vaccine demand and
supply answers this question. A target of vaccinating 60
percent of the population in each country by March 2022 is
likely sufficient to achieve worldwide herd immunity under a
baseline scenario with limited mutation. Achieving this
target appears feasible given stated production capacity of
vaccine manufacturers and the pace of current and historical
vaccination campaigns. Considering existing pre-purchase
contracts for vaccines, achieving this target requires
addressing a procurement gap of just 350 million vaccine
courses in low- and middle-income countries. Immediate
additional donor funding of about $4 billion or in-kind
donations of excess orders by high-income countries would be
sufficient to close this gap. There are additional
challenges along the path to achieving world-wide herd
immunity---including supply chain issues, trade
restrictions, vaccine delivery, and mutations. Overall
however, this analysis suggests multilateral action now can
bring an end to the acute phase of the pandemic early next year. |
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