How Has COVID-19 Affected the Intention to Migrate via the Backway to Europe and to a Neighboring African Country? Survey Evidence and a Salience Experiment in The Gambia
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in border closures in many countries and a sharp reduction in overall international mobility. However, this disruption of legal pathways to migration has raised concerns that potential migrants may turn to irregul...
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2021
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/551791620830976251/How-Has-COVID-19-Affected-the-Intention-to-Migrate-via-the-Backway-to-Europe http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35571 |
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okr-10986-355712022-09-20T00:09:26Z How Has COVID-19 Affected the Intention to Migrate via the Backway to Europe and to a Neighboring African Country? Survey Evidence and a Salience Experiment in The Gambia Bah, Tijan L Batista, Catia Gubert, Flore McKenzie, David MIGRATION CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 PANDEMIC IMPACT REMITTANCES LABOR FORCE SURVEY MIGRATORY INTENTION The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in border closures in many countries and a sharp reduction in overall international mobility. However, this disruption of legal pathways to migration has raised concerns that potential migrants may turn to irregular migration routes as a substitute. This paper examines how the pandemic has changed intentions to migrate from The Gambia, the country with the highest pre-pandemic per-capita irregular migration rates in Africa. A large-scale panel survey conducted in 2019 and 2020 is used to compare changes in intentions to migrate to Europe and to neighboring Senegal. The data show that the pandemic has reduced the intention to migrate to both destinations, with approximately one-third of young males expressing less intention to migrate. The largest reductions in migration intentions are for individuals who were unsure of their intent pre-pandemic, and for poorer individuals who are no longer able to afford the costs of migrating at a time when these costs have increased and their remittance income has fallen. This paper also introduces the methodology of priming experiments to the study of migration intentions, by randomly varying the salience of the COVID-19 pandemic before eliciting intentions to migrate. There is no impact of this added salience, which appears to be because knowledge of the virus, while imperfect, was already enough to inform migration decisions. Nevertheless, despite these decreases in intentions, the overall desire to migrate the backway to Europe remains high, highlighting the need for legal migration pathways to support migrants and divert them from the risks of backway migration. 2021-05-13T16:56:22Z 2021-05-13T16:56:22Z 2021-05 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/551791620830976251/How-Has-COVID-19-Affected-the-Intention-to-Migrate-via-the-Backway-to-Europe http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35571 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9658 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Africa Africa Western and Central (AFW) Gambia, The |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
MIGRATION CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 PANDEMIC IMPACT REMITTANCES LABOR FORCE SURVEY MIGRATORY INTENTION |
| spellingShingle |
MIGRATION CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 PANDEMIC IMPACT REMITTANCES LABOR FORCE SURVEY MIGRATORY INTENTION Bah, Tijan L Batista, Catia Gubert, Flore McKenzie, David How Has COVID-19 Affected the Intention to Migrate via the Backway to Europe and to a Neighboring African Country? Survey Evidence and a Salience Experiment in The Gambia |
| geographic_facet |
Africa Africa Western and Central (AFW) Gambia, The |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9658 |
| description |
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in
border closures in many countries and a sharp reduction in
overall international mobility. However, this disruption of
legal pathways to migration has raised concerns that
potential migrants may turn to irregular migration routes as
a substitute. This paper examines how the pandemic has
changed intentions to migrate from The Gambia, the country
with the highest pre-pandemic per-capita irregular migration
rates in Africa. A large-scale panel survey conducted in
2019 and 2020 is used to compare changes in intentions to
migrate to Europe and to neighboring Senegal. The data show
that the pandemic has reduced the intention to migrate to
both destinations, with approximately one-third of young
males expressing less intention to migrate. The largest
reductions in migration intentions are for individuals who
were unsure of their intent pre-pandemic, and for poorer
individuals who are no longer able to afford the costs of
migrating at a time when these costs have increased and
their remittance income has fallen. This paper also
introduces the methodology of priming experiments to the
study of migration intentions, by randomly varying the
salience of the COVID-19 pandemic before eliciting
intentions to migrate. There is no impact of this added
salience, which appears to be because knowledge of the
virus, while imperfect, was already enough to inform
migration decisions. Nevertheless, despite these decreases
in intentions, the overall desire to migrate the backway to
Europe remains high, highlighting the need for legal
migration pathways to support migrants and divert them from
the risks of backway migration. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Bah, Tijan L Batista, Catia Gubert, Flore McKenzie, David |
| author_facet |
Bah, Tijan L Batista, Catia Gubert, Flore McKenzie, David |
| author_sort |
Bah, Tijan L |
| title |
How Has COVID-19 Affected the Intention to Migrate via the Backway to Europe and to a Neighboring African Country? Survey Evidence and a Salience Experiment in The Gambia |
| title_short |
How Has COVID-19 Affected the Intention to Migrate via the Backway to Europe and to a Neighboring African Country? Survey Evidence and a Salience Experiment in The Gambia |
| title_full |
How Has COVID-19 Affected the Intention to Migrate via the Backway to Europe and to a Neighboring African Country? Survey Evidence and a Salience Experiment in The Gambia |
| title_fullStr |
How Has COVID-19 Affected the Intention to Migrate via the Backway to Europe and to a Neighboring African Country? Survey Evidence and a Salience Experiment in The Gambia |
| title_full_unstemmed |
How Has COVID-19 Affected the Intention to Migrate via the Backway to Europe and to a Neighboring African Country? Survey Evidence and a Salience Experiment in The Gambia |
| title_sort |
how has covid-19 affected the intention to migrate via the backway to europe and to a neighboring african country? survey evidence and a salience experiment in the gambia |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2021 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/551791620830976251/How-Has-COVID-19-Affected-the-Intention-to-Migrate-via-the-Backway-to-Europe http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35571 |
| _version_ |
1764483351476961280 |