Trade-Policy Dynamics : Evidence from 60 Years of U.S.-China Trade
This paper studies the growth of Chinese imports into the United States from autarky during 1950–1970 to about 15 percent of overall imports in 2008, taking advantage of the rich heterogeneity in trade policy and trade growth across products during...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2021
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/421231627562264647/Trade-Policy-Dynamics-Evidence-from-60-Years-of-U-S-China-Trade http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36052 |
| id |
okr-10986-36052 |
|---|---|
| recordtype |
oai_dc |
| spelling |
okr-10986-360522021-08-06T05:10:27Z Trade-Policy Dynamics : Evidence from 60 Years of U.S.-China Trade Alessandria, George Khan, Shafaat Yar Khederlarian, Armen Ruhl, KimJ. Steinberg, Joseph B. TRADE POLICY TRADE ELASTICITY TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE POLICY UNCERTAINTY TRADE DYNAMICS PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENTS WTO ACCESSION This paper studies the growth of Chinese imports into the United States from autarky during 1950–1970 to about 15 percent of overall imports in 2008, taking advantage of the rich heterogeneity in trade policy and trade growth across products during this period. Central to the analysis is an accounting for the dynamics of trade, trade policy, and trade-policy expectations. The analysis isolates the lagged effects of past reforms and the current effects of uncertainty about future reforms. It builds a multi-industry, heterogeneous-firm model with a dynamic export participation decision to estimate a path of trade-policy expectations. The findings show that being granted Normal Trade Relations (NTR) status in 1980 was largely a surprise and that, in the early stages, this reform had a high probability of being reversed. The likelihood of reversal dropped considerably during the mid-1980s, and, despite China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, changed little throughout the late 1990s and early 2000s. Thus, although uncertainty depressed trade substantially following the 1980 liberalization, much of the trade growth that followed China’s WTO accession was a delayed response to previous reforms rather than a response to declining uncertainty. 2021-08-05T12:33:53Z 2021-08-05T12:33:53Z 2021-07 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/421231627562264647/Trade-Policy-Dynamics-Evidence-from-60-Years-of-U-S-China-Trade http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36052 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9741 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper East Asia and Pacific China United States |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
TRADE POLICY TRADE ELASTICITY TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE POLICY UNCERTAINTY TRADE DYNAMICS PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENTS WTO ACCESSION |
| spellingShingle |
TRADE POLICY TRADE ELASTICITY TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE POLICY UNCERTAINTY TRADE DYNAMICS PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENTS WTO ACCESSION Alessandria, George Khan, Shafaat Yar Khederlarian, Armen Ruhl, KimJ. Steinberg, Joseph B. Trade-Policy Dynamics : Evidence from 60 Years of U.S.-China Trade |
| geographic_facet |
East Asia and Pacific China United States |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9741 |
| description |
This paper studies the growth of Chinese
imports into the United States from autarky during 1950–1970
to about 15 percent of overall imports in 2008, taking
advantage of the rich heterogeneity in trade policy and
trade growth across products during this period. Central to
the analysis is an accounting for the dynamics of trade,
trade policy, and trade-policy expectations. The analysis
isolates the lagged effects of past reforms and the current
effects of uncertainty about future reforms. It builds a
multi-industry, heterogeneous-firm model with a dynamic
export participation decision to estimate a path of
trade-policy expectations. The findings show that being
granted Normal Trade Relations (NTR) status in 1980 was
largely a surprise and that, in the early stages, this
reform had a high probability of being reversed. The
likelihood of reversal dropped considerably during the
mid-1980s, and, despite China’s accession to the World Trade
Organization (WTO) in 2001, changed little throughout the
late 1990s and early 2000s. Thus, although uncertainty
depressed trade substantially following the 1980
liberalization, much of the trade growth that followed
China’s WTO accession was a delayed response to previous
reforms rather than a response to declining uncertainty. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Alessandria, George Khan, Shafaat Yar Khederlarian, Armen Ruhl, KimJ. Steinberg, Joseph B. |
| author_facet |
Alessandria, George Khan, Shafaat Yar Khederlarian, Armen Ruhl, KimJ. Steinberg, Joseph B. |
| author_sort |
Alessandria, George |
| title |
Trade-Policy Dynamics : Evidence from 60 Years of U.S.-China Trade |
| title_short |
Trade-Policy Dynamics : Evidence from 60 Years of U.S.-China Trade |
| title_full |
Trade-Policy Dynamics : Evidence from 60 Years of U.S.-China Trade |
| title_fullStr |
Trade-Policy Dynamics : Evidence from 60 Years of U.S.-China Trade |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Trade-Policy Dynamics : Evidence from 60 Years of U.S.-China Trade |
| title_sort |
trade-policy dynamics : evidence from 60 years of u.s.-china trade |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2021 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/421231627562264647/Trade-Policy-Dynamics-Evidence-from-60-Years-of-U-S-China-Trade http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36052 |
| _version_ |
1764484327821803520 |