Climate Shocks, Vulnerability, Resilience and Livelihoods in Rural Zambia

To what extent do the behavioral choices of Zambian smallholder farmers influence the negative effects of climate shocks, and what impact do these choices have on vulnerability and resilience? This paper uses nationally representative, three-wave h...

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Main Authors:	Ngoma, Hambulo, Finn, Arden, Kabisa, Mulako
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2021
Subjects:	CLIMATE RESILIENCE CLIMATE SHOCKS SMALLHOLDER FARMERS VULNERABILITY LIVELIHOODS
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/289351629811668275/Climate-Shocks-Vulnerability-Resilience-and-Livelihoods-in-Rural-Zambia http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36200

id	okr-10986-36200
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-362002021-08-27T05:10:33Z Climate Shocks, Vulnerability, Resilience and Livelihoods in Rural Zambia Ngoma, Hambulo Finn, Arden Kabisa, Mulako CLIMATE RESILIENCE CLIMATE SHOCKS SMALLHOLDER FARMERS VULNERABILITY LIVELIHOODS To what extent do the behavioral choices of Zambian smallholder farmers influence the negative effects of climate shocks, and what impact do these choices have on vulnerability and resilience? This paper uses nationally representative, three-wave household-level panel data to investigate these questions. The empirical estimation employs an instrumental variable probit regression model, which also controls for the endogeneity of key choice variables. There are four main empirical findings. First, droughts are the most prevalent climate shock rural smallholder farmers in Zambia face, but the extent of exposure differs spatially, with the Southern and Western Provinces being the hardest hit. Nationally, about three-quarters of all smallholder farmers are vulnerable and only about one-quarter are resilient. Second, increased climate shocks correlate with both increased vulnerability and reduced resilience, with short- and long-term deviations in seasonal rainfall worsening vulnerability and resilience. Third, higher asset endowments and education level of the household head reduce vulnerability and increase resilience among smallholder farmers. Female-headed households are more vulnerable and less resilient, on average. Fourth, the use of climate-smart agricultural practices—namely, minimum tillage and use of inorganic fertilizers or hybrid maize seed—significantly improves household resilience in the short term. The paper draws two main policy implications from the findings. First, the results point to an urgent need to invest in research and development for climate shock–tolerant crop varieties and in broader climate-smart agricultural technologies to scale out and scale up context-specific practices through innovative digital platforms. Second, more investment is needed in risk mitigation strategies such as weather indexed insurance, targeted social cash transfers and how to make these work effectively for smallholder farmers. Other important complementary elements include investment in innovative digital platforms that can facilitate timely delivery of climate information services and facilitating asset accumulation and education that can enable farmers to improve climate shock resilience over time. 2021-08-26T18:49:03Z 2021-08-26T18:49:03Z 2021-08 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/289351629811668275/Climate-Shocks-Vulnerability-Resilience-and-Livelihoods-in-Rural-Zambia http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36200 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9758 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Africa Africa Eastern and Southern (AFE) Zambia
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	CLIMATE RESILIENCE CLIMATE SHOCKS SMALLHOLDER FARMERS VULNERABILITY LIVELIHOODS
spellingShingle	CLIMATE RESILIENCE CLIMATE SHOCKS SMALLHOLDER FARMERS VULNERABILITY LIVELIHOODS Ngoma, Hambulo Finn, Arden Kabisa, Mulako Climate Shocks, Vulnerability, Resilience and Livelihoods in Rural Zambia
geographic_facet	Africa Africa Eastern and Southern (AFE) Zambia
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9758
description	To what extent do the behavioral choices of Zambian smallholder farmers influence the negative effects of climate shocks, and what impact do these choices have on vulnerability and resilience? This paper uses nationally representative, three-wave household-level panel data to investigate these questions. The empirical estimation employs an instrumental variable probit regression model, which also controls for the endogeneity of key choice variables. There are four main empirical findings. First, droughts are the most prevalent climate shock rural smallholder farmers in Zambia face, but the extent of exposure differs spatially, with the Southern and Western Provinces being the hardest hit. Nationally, about three-quarters of all smallholder farmers are vulnerable and only about one-quarter are resilient. Second, increased climate shocks correlate with both increased vulnerability and reduced resilience, with short- and long-term deviations in seasonal rainfall worsening vulnerability and resilience. Third, higher asset endowments and education level of the household head reduce vulnerability and increase resilience among smallholder farmers. Female-headed households are more vulnerable and less resilient, on average. Fourth, the use of climate-smart agricultural practices—namely, minimum tillage and use of inorganic fertilizers or hybrid maize seed—significantly improves household resilience in the short term. The paper draws two main policy implications from the findings. First, the results point to an urgent need to invest in research and development for climate shock–tolerant crop varieties and in broader climate-smart agricultural technologies to scale out and scale up context-specific practices through innovative digital platforms. Second, more investment is needed in risk mitigation strategies such as weather indexed insurance, targeted social cash transfers and how to make these work effectively for smallholder farmers. Other important complementary elements include investment in innovative digital platforms that can facilitate timely delivery of climate information services and facilitating asset accumulation and education that can enable farmers to improve climate shock resilience over time.
format	Working Paper
author	Ngoma, Hambulo Finn, Arden Kabisa, Mulako
author_facet	Ngoma, Hambulo Finn, Arden Kabisa, Mulako
author_sort	Ngoma, Hambulo
title	Climate Shocks, Vulnerability, Resilience and Livelihoods in Rural Zambia
title_short	Climate Shocks, Vulnerability, Resilience and Livelihoods in Rural Zambia
title_full	Climate Shocks, Vulnerability, Resilience and Livelihoods in Rural Zambia
title_fullStr	Climate Shocks, Vulnerability, Resilience and Livelihoods in Rural Zambia
title_full_unstemmed	Climate Shocks, Vulnerability, Resilience and Livelihoods in Rural Zambia
title_sort	climate shocks, vulnerability, resilience and livelihoods in rural zambia
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2021
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/289351629811668275/Climate-Shocks-Vulnerability-Resilience-and-Livelihoods-in-Rural-Zambia http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36200
_version_	1764484769997914112

Climate Shocks, Vulnerability, Resilience and Livelihoods in Rural Zambia

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