A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall? New Insights on Water Security and Fragility in the Sahel

Do Sahelian countries face specific risks of water-related conflict Sahelian countries face growing fragility and climate challenges—especially those belonging to the Group of Five Sahel States (known as the G5 Sahel)—Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Maur...

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Main Authors:	Khan, Amjad Muhammad, Rodella, Aude-Sophie
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2021
Subjects:	CONFLICT POLITICAL ECONOMY INSTITUTIONS NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT CLIMATE AGRICULTURE IRRIGATION INFRASTRUCTURE
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/693481634066645154/A-Hard-Rains-a-Gonna-Fall-New-Insights-on-Water-Security-and-Fragility-in-the-Sahel http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36391

id	okr-10986-36391
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-363912021-10-15T05:10:35Z A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall? New Insights on Water Security and Fragility in the Sahel Khan, Amjad Muhammad Rodella, Aude-Sophie CONFLICT POLITICAL ECONOMY INSTITUTIONS NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT CLIMATE AGRICULTURE IRRIGATION INFRASTRUCTURE Do Sahelian countries face specific risks of water-related conflict Sahelian countries face growing fragility and climate challenges—especially those belonging to the Group of Five Sahel States (known as the G5 Sahel)—Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger. This study examines how their relation to water availability and irrigation infrastructure factors in. It documents that the G5 Sahel countries, given their high baseline water scarcity and state fragility, face a higher risk of conflict over water resources compared to the rest of Africa. This is demonstrated through empirical analyses using geospatial data and exploiting (i) climate-induced variation in water availability, and (ii) an event study analysis of conflict trends, which sharply increased post-2010 in the region following the Arab Spring and the rise of the Boko Haram. Irrigated areas are found to be important for buffering against weather shocks but are also more prone to targeting during conflict events compared to non-irrigated regions. The evidence suggests that this reflects increased competition for scarce (fertile) resources between state and rebel groups on this climate frontier with a well-documented history of agropastoral conflict. Other regions of Africa are not found to experience similar conflict related to water resources. These findings are especially pertinent for informing projects and policy interventions in fragile countries as post-COVID-19 recovery and climate action plans are rolled out. 2021-10-14T14:17:49Z 2021-10-14T14:17:49Z 2021-10 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/693481634066645154/A-Hard-Rains-a-Gonna-Fall-New-Insights-on-Water-Security-and-Fragility-in-the-Sahel http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36391 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9805 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Africa Africa Western and Central (AFW) Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritania Niger
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	CONFLICT POLITICAL ECONOMY INSTITUTIONS NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT CLIMATE AGRICULTURE IRRIGATION INFRASTRUCTURE
spellingShingle	CONFLICT POLITICAL ECONOMY INSTITUTIONS NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT CLIMATE AGRICULTURE IRRIGATION INFRASTRUCTURE Khan, Amjad Muhammad Rodella, Aude-Sophie A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall? New Insights on Water Security and Fragility in the Sahel
geographic_facet	Africa Africa Western and Central (AFW) Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritania Niger
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9805
description	Do Sahelian countries face specific risks of water-related conflict Sahelian countries face growing fragility and climate challenges—especially those belonging to the Group of Five Sahel States (known as the G5 Sahel)—Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger. This study examines how their relation to water availability and irrigation infrastructure factors in. It documents that the G5 Sahel countries, given their high baseline water scarcity and state fragility, face a higher risk of conflict over water resources compared to the rest of Africa. This is demonstrated through empirical analyses using geospatial data and exploiting (i) climate-induced variation in water availability, and (ii) an event study analysis of conflict trends, which sharply increased post-2010 in the region following the Arab Spring and the rise of the Boko Haram. Irrigated areas are found to be important for buffering against weather shocks but are also more prone to targeting during conflict events compared to non-irrigated regions. The evidence suggests that this reflects increased competition for scarce (fertile) resources between state and rebel groups on this climate frontier with a well-documented history of agropastoral conflict. Other regions of Africa are not found to experience similar conflict related to water resources. These findings are especially pertinent for informing projects and policy interventions in fragile countries as post-COVID-19 recovery and climate action plans are rolled out.
format	Working Paper
author	Khan, Amjad Muhammad Rodella, Aude-Sophie
author_facet	Khan, Amjad Muhammad Rodella, Aude-Sophie
author_sort	Khan, Amjad Muhammad
title	A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall? New Insights on Water Security and Fragility in the Sahel
title_short	A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall? New Insights on Water Security and Fragility in the Sahel
title_full	A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall? New Insights on Water Security and Fragility in the Sahel
title_fullStr	A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall? New Insights on Water Security and Fragility in the Sahel
title_full_unstemmed	A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall? New Insights on Water Security and Fragility in the Sahel
title_sort	hard rain's a-gonna fall? new insights on water security and fragility in the sahel
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2021
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/693481634066645154/A-Hard-Rains-a-Gonna-Fall-New-Insights-on-Water-Security-and-Fragility-in-the-Sahel http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36391
_version_	1764485147444379648

A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall? New Insights on Water Security and Fragility in the Sahel

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