Understanding Drivers of Decoupling of Global Transport CO2 Emissions from Economic Growth : Evidence from 145 Countries
This paper examines the extent to which countries have succeeded in decoupling transport emissions from economic growth, and how changes in emissions intensity, economic growth, and population growth have contributed to changes in transportation-re...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/766991634561185532/Understanding-Drivers-of-Decoupling-of-Global-Transport-CO2-Emissions-from-Economic-Growth-Evidence-from-145-Countries http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36427 |
| Summary: | This paper examines the extent to
which countries have succeeded in decoupling transport
emissions from economic growth, and how changes in emissions
intensity, economic growth, and population growth have
contributed to changes in transportation-related emissions.
The paper employs a modified version of the Tapio decoupling
model, and demonstrates that over the 1990–2018 study period
only 12 of 145 countries achieved “absolute decoupling,”
defined as reducing emissions while growing gross domestic
product. The majority of the top emitters remain in a
“relative decoupling” state, with emissions growing more
slowly than gross domestic product. Many of the middle- and
low-income countries have not achieved decoupling; their
emissions are growing as fast as or faster than gross
domestic product. To understand the driving factors of
transport-related carbon emissions, the paper conducts
index-decomposition and an econometric analysis. The results
reveal that while transportation emission intensity has
declined in most countries, economic growth and population
growth have offset these declines. If these patterns
continue, achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement with
improvements in efficiency alone seems unrealistic. The
paper also shows evidence that higher energy prices are
associated with strong emissions reduction. |
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