Groundswell Africa : A Deep Dive into Internal Climate Migration in Senegal
The World Bank’s flagship report Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration finds that Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to witness high levels of climate-induced mobility (Rigaud et al. 2018). An expanded and deeper analysis through Groundsw...
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2021
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/776881634532602504/Groundswell-Africa-A-Deep-Dive-into-Internal-Climate-Migration-in-Senegal http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36445 |
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okr-10986-364452022-01-15T05:10:36Z Groundswell Africa : A Deep Dive into Internal Climate Migration in Senegal Rigaud, Kanta Kumari de Sherbinin, Alex Jones, Bryan Abu-Ata, Nathalie E. Adamo, Susana MIGRATION INTERNAL MIGRATION INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION CLIMATE MIGRATION CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT CLIMATE RESILIENCE DISPLACEMENT The World Bank’s flagship report Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration finds that Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to witness high levels of climate-induced mobility (Rigaud et al. 2018). An expanded and deeper analysis through Groundswell Africa, focusing on West African countries, reaffirms this pattern region. The recent study projects that by 2050, without concrete climate and development action, West Africa could see as many as 32.0 million people move because of slow-onset climate impacts, such as water stress, drops in crop and ecosystem productivity, and sea level rise compounded by storm surge. These spatial population shifts will represent up to 3.5 percent of the total population of West Africa. Understanding the scale and the patterns of these climate-induced spatial population shifts is critical to inform policy dialogue, planning, and action to avert, minimize, and better manage climate-induced migration for dignified, productive, and sustainable outcomes. By 2050, internal climate migration in Senegal could reach more than 1 million. This figure represents 3.3 percent of the population, at the high end of the confidence interval under the pessimistic scenario, which combines high emissions with unequal development. In alternative scenarios, more inclusive and climate-friendly, the scale of climate migration would be reduced. The greatest gains in modulating the scale of climate migration are realized under the optimistic scenario, which combines low emissions with moderate development pathways. The number of climate migrants would drop from a mean value of 600,000 under the pessimistic and reference scenario in 2050 to 90,000 in 2050 under the optimistic scenario, which translates into a reduction of 85 percent. This major drop underscores the critical need for both inclusive development and low emissions to modulate the scale of climate migration, with the greatest gains achieved through early action. 2021-11-02T13:50:01Z 2021-11-02T13:50:01Z 2021-10-18 Report http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/776881634532602504/Groundswell-Africa-A-Deep-Dive-into-Internal-Climate-Migration-in-Senegal http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36445 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Working Paper Africa Africa Western and Central (AFW) Senegal |
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Digital Repository |
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Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
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World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
MIGRATION INTERNAL MIGRATION INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION CLIMATE MIGRATION CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT CLIMATE RESILIENCE DISPLACEMENT |
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MIGRATION INTERNAL MIGRATION INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION CLIMATE MIGRATION CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT CLIMATE RESILIENCE DISPLACEMENT Rigaud, Kanta Kumari de Sherbinin, Alex Jones, Bryan Abu-Ata, Nathalie E. Adamo, Susana Groundswell Africa : A Deep Dive into Internal Climate Migration in Senegal |
| geographic_facet |
Africa Africa Western and Central (AFW) Senegal |
| description |
The World Bank’s flagship report
Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration finds
that Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to witness high levels of
climate-induced mobility (Rigaud et al. 2018). An expanded
and deeper analysis through Groundswell Africa, focusing on
West African countries, reaffirms this pattern region. The
recent study projects that by 2050, without concrete climate
and development action, West Africa could see as many as
32.0 million people move because of slow-onset climate
impacts, such as water stress, drops in crop and ecosystem
productivity, and sea level rise compounded by storm surge.
These spatial population shifts will represent up to 3.5
percent of the total population of West Africa.
Understanding the scale and the patterns of these
climate-induced spatial population shifts is critical to
inform policy dialogue, planning, and action to avert,
minimize, and better manage climate-induced migration for
dignified, productive, and sustainable outcomes. By 2050,
internal climate migration in Senegal could reach more than
1 million. This figure represents 3.3 percent of the
population, at the high end of the confidence interval under
the pessimistic scenario, which combines high emissions with
unequal development. In alternative scenarios, more
inclusive and climate-friendly, the scale of climate
migration would be reduced. The greatest gains in modulating
the scale of climate migration are realized under the
optimistic scenario, which combines low emissions with
moderate development pathways. The number of climate
migrants would drop from a mean value of 600,000 under the
pessimistic and reference scenario in 2050 to 90,000 in 2050
under the optimistic scenario, which translates into a
reduction of 85 percent. This major drop underscores the
critical need for both inclusive development and low
emissions to modulate the scale of climate migration, with
the greatest gains achieved through early action. |
| format |
Report |
| author |
Rigaud, Kanta Kumari de Sherbinin, Alex Jones, Bryan Abu-Ata, Nathalie E. Adamo, Susana |
| author_facet |
Rigaud, Kanta Kumari de Sherbinin, Alex Jones, Bryan Abu-Ata, Nathalie E. Adamo, Susana |
| author_sort |
Rigaud, Kanta Kumari |
| title |
Groundswell Africa : A Deep Dive into Internal Climate Migration in Senegal |
| title_short |
Groundswell Africa : A Deep Dive into Internal Climate Migration in Senegal |
| title_full |
Groundswell Africa : A Deep Dive into Internal Climate Migration in Senegal |
| title_fullStr |
Groundswell Africa : A Deep Dive into Internal Climate Migration in Senegal |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Groundswell Africa : A Deep Dive into Internal Climate Migration in Senegal |
| title_sort |
groundswell africa : a deep dive into internal climate migration in senegal |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2021 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/776881634532602504/Groundswell-Africa-A-Deep-Dive-into-Internal-Climate-Migration-in-Senegal http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36445 |
| _version_ |
1764485268337852416 |