Lake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum : Technical Paper 3. Estimating the Spillover Economic Effects of Foreign Conflict - Evidence from Boko Haram

Violent conflicts present a formidable threat to regional economies. Throughout the world, border regions in many countries are possibly impacted by the cross-border economic effects of regional insurgencies in neighboring countries or national sta...

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Main Authors:	Jedwab, Remi, Blankespoor, Brian, Masaki, Takaaki, Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos
Format:	Report
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2021
Subjects:	CONFLICT INSURGENCY TRADE POVERTY TRAP SPILLOVER EFFECT SPATIAL ECONOMICS LABOR MARKET COMMODITIES ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY MIGRATION BOKO HARAM
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/168241636640474130/Technical-Paper-3-Estimating-the-Spillover-Economic-Effects-of-Foreign-Conflict-Evidence-from-Boko-Haram http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36574

id	okr-10986-36574
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-365742021-11-17T05:10:42Z Lake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum : Technical Paper 3. Estimating the Spillover Economic Effects of Foreign Conflict - Evidence from Boko Haram Jedwab, Remi Blankespoor, Brian Masaki, Takaaki Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos CONFLICT INSURGENCY TRADE POVERTY TRAP SPILLOVER EFFECT SPATIAL ECONOMICS LABOR MARKET COMMODITIES ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY MIGRATION BOKO HARAM Violent conflicts present a formidable threat to regional economies. Throughout the world, border regions in many countries are possibly impacted by the cross-border economic effects of regional insurgencies in neighboring countries or national state failures, i.e. "bad neighbors". This raises two questions. First, what is the magnitude of the spill-over economic effects of foreign conflict and what are the channels through which they operate Second, what policies can governments adopt in the potentially exposed regions to mitigate such spill-over effects. In this paper, we adopt a difference-in-difference (DiD) framework leveraging the unexpected rise of the Boko Haram insurgency in Northeastern Nigeria in 2009 to study its economic effects in neighboring areas in Cameroon, Chad and Niger that were not directly targeted by Boko Haram activities. We find strong cross-border economic effects that are likely driven by reduced trade activities, not the diffusion of conflict. Factors of local economic resilience to this foreign conflict shock then include trade diversification and political and economic securitization. More generally, conflicts, if they have regional economic effects, may necessitate regional responses. 2021-11-16T19:44:45Z 2021-11-16T19:44:45Z 2021-11-12 Report http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/168241636640474130/Technical-Paper-3-Estimating-the-Spillover-Economic-Effects-of-Foreign-Conflict-Evidence-from-Boko-Haram http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36574 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Economic & Sector Work Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum Africa Africa Western and Central (AFW) Central Africa West Africa Cameroon Chad Niger Nigeria
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	CONFLICT INSURGENCY TRADE POVERTY TRAP SPILLOVER EFFECT SPATIAL ECONOMICS LABOR MARKET COMMODITIES ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY MIGRATION BOKO HARAM
spellingShingle	CONFLICT INSURGENCY TRADE POVERTY TRAP SPILLOVER EFFECT SPATIAL ECONOMICS LABOR MARKET COMMODITIES ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY MIGRATION BOKO HARAM Jedwab, Remi Blankespoor, Brian Masaki, Takaaki Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos Lake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum : Technical Paper 3. Estimating the Spillover Economic Effects of Foreign Conflict - Evidence from Boko Haram
geographic_facet	Africa Africa Western and Central (AFW) Central Africa West Africa Cameroon Chad Niger Nigeria
description	Violent conflicts present a formidable threat to regional economies. Throughout the world, border regions in many countries are possibly impacted by the cross-border economic effects of regional insurgencies in neighboring countries or national state failures, i.e. "bad neighbors". This raises two questions. First, what is the magnitude of the spill-over economic effects of foreign conflict and what are the channels through which they operate Second, what policies can governments adopt in the potentially exposed regions to mitigate such spill-over effects. In this paper, we adopt a difference-in-difference (DiD) framework leveraging the unexpected rise of the Boko Haram insurgency in Northeastern Nigeria in 2009 to study its economic effects in neighboring areas in Cameroon, Chad and Niger that were not directly targeted by Boko Haram activities. We find strong cross-border economic effects that are likely driven by reduced trade activities, not the diffusion of conflict. Factors of local economic resilience to this foreign conflict shock then include trade diversification and political and economic securitization. More generally, conflicts, if they have regional economic effects, may necessitate regional responses.
format	Report
author	Jedwab, Remi Blankespoor, Brian Masaki, Takaaki Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos
author_facet	Jedwab, Remi Blankespoor, Brian Masaki, Takaaki Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos
author_sort	Jedwab, Remi
title	Lake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum : Technical Paper 3. Estimating the Spillover Economic Effects of Foreign Conflict - Evidence from Boko Haram
title_short	Lake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum : Technical Paper 3. Estimating the Spillover Economic Effects of Foreign Conflict - Evidence from Boko Haram
title_full	Lake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum : Technical Paper 3. Estimating the Spillover Economic Effects of Foreign Conflict - Evidence from Boko Haram
title_fullStr	Lake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum : Technical Paper 3. Estimating the Spillover Economic Effects of Foreign Conflict - Evidence from Boko Haram
title_full_unstemmed	Lake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum : Technical Paper 3. Estimating the Spillover Economic Effects of Foreign Conflict - Evidence from Boko Haram
title_sort	lake chad regional economic memorandum : technical paper 3. estimating the spillover economic effects of foreign conflict - evidence from boko haram
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2021
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/168241636640474130/Technical-Paper-3-Estimating-the-Spillover-Economic-Effects-of-Foreign-Conflict-Evidence-from-Boko-Haram http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36574
_version_	1764485546066837504

Lake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum : Technical Paper 3. Estimating the Spillover Economic Effects of Foreign Conflict - Evidence from Boko Haram

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