Growth in Syria : Losses from the War and Potential Recovery in the Aftermath

This paper addresses three questions: (1) what would have been the growth and income trajectory of Syria in the absence of war; (2) given the war, what explains the reduction in economic growth; and (3) what potential growth scenarios for Syria there could be in the aftermath of war. Conflict impact...

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Main Authors:	Devadas, Sharmila, Elbadawi, Ibrahim, Loayza, Norman V.
Format:	Journal Article
Published:	Taylor and Francis 2022
Subjects:	WAR CONFLICT RECONSTRUCTION CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES ECONOMIC GROWTH FACTORS OF PRODUCTION
Online Access:	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36855

id	okr-10986-36855
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-368552022-01-28T16:16:04Z Growth in Syria : Losses from the War and Potential Recovery in the Aftermath Devadas, Sharmila Elbadawi, Ibrahim Loayza, Norman V. WAR CONFLICT RECONSTRUCTION CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES ECONOMIC GROWTH FACTORS OF PRODUCTION This paper addresses three questions: (1) what would have been the growth and income trajectory of Syria in the absence of war; (2) given the war, what explains the reduction in economic growth; and (3) what potential growth scenarios for Syria there could be in the aftermath of war. Conflict impact estimates point to negative GDP growth of −12% on average over 2011–2018, with output contracting to about one-third of the 2010 level. In post-conflict simulation scenarios, the growth drivers are affected by the assumed levels of reconstruction assistance, repatriation of refugees, and productivity improvements associated with three political settlement outcomes: a baseline (Sochi-plus) moderate scenario, an optimistic (robust political settlement) scenario, and a pessimistic (de facto balance of power) scenario. Respectively for these scenarios, GDP per capita average growth in the next two decades is projected to be 6.1%, 8.2%, or 3.1%, assuming a final and stable resolution of the conflict. 2022-01-20T22:10:54Z 2022-01-20T22:10:54Z 2021-07-05 Journal Article Middle East Development Journal 1793-8120 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36855 CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo World Bank Taylor and Francis Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Journal Article Middle East and North Africa Syrian Arab Republic
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
topic	WAR CONFLICT RECONSTRUCTION CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES ECONOMIC GROWTH FACTORS OF PRODUCTION
spellingShingle	WAR CONFLICT RECONSTRUCTION CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES ECONOMIC GROWTH FACTORS OF PRODUCTION Devadas, Sharmila Elbadawi, Ibrahim Loayza, Norman V. Growth in Syria : Losses from the War and Potential Recovery in the Aftermath
geographic_facet	Middle East and North Africa Syrian Arab Republic
description	This paper addresses three questions: (1) what would have been the growth and income trajectory of Syria in the absence of war; (2) given the war, what explains the reduction in economic growth; and (3) what potential growth scenarios for Syria there could be in the aftermath of war. Conflict impact estimates point to negative GDP growth of −12% on average over 2011–2018, with output contracting to about one-third of the 2010 level. In post-conflict simulation scenarios, the growth drivers are affected by the assumed levels of reconstruction assistance, repatriation of refugees, and productivity improvements associated with three political settlement outcomes: a baseline (Sochi-plus) moderate scenario, an optimistic (robust political settlement) scenario, and a pessimistic (de facto balance of power) scenario. Respectively for these scenarios, GDP per capita average growth in the next two decades is projected to be 6.1%, 8.2%, or 3.1%, assuming a final and stable resolution of the conflict.
format	Journal Article
author	Devadas, Sharmila Elbadawi, Ibrahim Loayza, Norman V.
author_facet	Devadas, Sharmila Elbadawi, Ibrahim Loayza, Norman V.
author_sort	Devadas, Sharmila
title	Growth in Syria : Losses from the War and Potential Recovery in the Aftermath
title_short	Growth in Syria : Losses from the War and Potential Recovery in the Aftermath
title_full	Growth in Syria : Losses from the War and Potential Recovery in the Aftermath
title_fullStr	Growth in Syria : Losses from the War and Potential Recovery in the Aftermath
title_full_unstemmed	Growth in Syria : Losses from the War and Potential Recovery in the Aftermath
title_sort	growth in syria : losses from the war and potential recovery in the aftermath
publisher	Taylor and Francis
publishDate	2022
url	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36855
_version_	1764486032700473344

Growth in Syria : Losses from the War and Potential Recovery in the Aftermath

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