Estimating the Economic and Distributional Impacts of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Estimating the Economic and Distributional Impacts of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

This paper applies a top-down, macro-micro modeling framework that links a computable general equilibrium model with the survey-based global income distribution dynamics model to assess the economic and distributional effects of the implementation...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Estrades Pineyrua, Carmen, Maliszewska, Maryla, Osorio-Rodarte, Israel, Seara E Pereira, Maria Filipa
Format: Working Paper
Language:English
English
Published: Washington, DC: World Bank 2022
Subjects:
GROSS NATIONAL INCOME PER CAPITA; GLOBAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM; COMMON SET OF RULES; COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL; TRADE-WEIGHTED AVERAGE; ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT; REAL INCOME; PAPER PRODUCT; RULES OF ORIGIN; TRADE COSTS; MEAT PRODUCT; AD VALOREM EQUIVALENT; TARIFF REDUCTION SCHEDULE; TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT; COAL PRODUCT; SHARE OF WOMAN; TRADE IN GOODS; AGREEMENT IN FORCE; REDUCTION IN TARIFFS; TRADE IN SERVICES; PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION; GROWTH AND TRADE; FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT; IMPACT OF TRADE; IMPACT ON POVERTY; REDUCTION OF POVERTY; ECONOMIES OF SCALE; LEARNING BY DOING; REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENT; BOOSTING GROWTH; BOOST TO GROWTH; INCREASE IN LABOR; PRICE OF EXPORT; EXPANSION OF TRADE; HARMONIZATION OF RULES; FAST ECONOMIC GROWTH; GROWTH IN TRADE; REGIONAL VALUE CONTENT; AGRICULTURE AND SERVICE; PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENT; TRADE POLICY CHANGES; REDUCTION OF BARRIERS; GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN; AGRICULTURAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION; REPRESENTATIVE HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS; STANDARD OF LIVING; PURCHASING POWER PARITY; TRADE IN MANUFACTURE; AGRICULTURAL AND FOOD; ANALYSIS OF POVERTY; EXPORT TRANSACTION COSTS; CREATING JOB OPPORTUNITY; MILLION PEOPLE; AD VALOREM TAX; SLOW POPULATION GROWTH; GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS; TRADE AND GROWTH; AIR TRANSPORT; PRODUCTIVITY GAIN; ROAD TRANSPORT; WATER TRANSPORT; MANUFACTURING SECTOR; PRODUCTIVITY INCREASE; EXTREME POVERTY; BASELINE SCENARIO; PROTECTION LEVEL; NATURAL RESOURCES; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; TRADE DIVERSION; FOOD SECTOR; IMPORT INCREASE; MIDDLE CLASS; ADMINISTRATIVE COST; OPEN ACCESS; MANUFACTURING GOOD; DEVELOPMENT POLICY; REAL GDP; PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH; DIFFERENTIATED IMPACT; BASELINE CONDITIONS; TOTAL TRADE; TRADE FLOW; REGIONAL MARKET; TERTIARY LEVEL; AGRICULTURAL GOOD; MACROECONOMIC IMPACT; POVERTY HEADCOUNT; STUDY ESTIMATE; COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE; TARIFF COMMITMENT; WELFARE IMPLICATION; COMPETITIVE SECTOR; WORLD TRADE; FOREIGN PROVIDERS; PRICE CONTROL; POPULATION PROJECTION; GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION; TARIFF INCREASE; LABOR PRODUCTIVITY; HOUSEHOLD DEMAND; AGE COHORT; SKILLED LABOR; EDUCATION CATEGORY; PREFERENTIAL RATE; UTILIZATION RATE; UPPER BIND; TARIFF HEADING; LOCAL PRODUCTION; SECTORAL RESULTS; LEATHER CROPS; LOW TRADE; GOODS TRADE; PREFERENTIAL TREATMENT; IMPORTED INPUTS; CONSTANT RETURN; FACILITATING TRADE; EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE; ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION; GRAVITY MODEL; HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION; MARKET CONDITION; TARIFF PEAKS; LOWER TARIFF; SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE; STRANDED ASSET; TRANSITIONAL COSTS; CAPITAL GOOD; GLOBAL INCIDENCE; DYNAMIC GAINS; REGIONAL GROUPING; WORLD POPULATION; WORLD EXPORTS; FOOD PRODUCT; OTHER SECTORS; INCOME GAIN; MALE WORKER; NEW ENTRANT; LIBERAL RULE; GLOBAL INCOME; TRADE BLOC; PRODUCTIVITY ASSUMPTION; TARIFF LIBERALIZATION; WEIGHTED TARIFF; ECONOMIC DEPRESSION; SIMULATION RESULT; RESEARCH SUPPORT; HEADCOUNT RATIO; OPEN ECONOMY; PARTICIPATING COUNTRY; NEGATIVE TERMS; TARIFF REVENUE; INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY; SANITARY MEASURE; TECHNICAL STANDARD; MANUFACTURING EXPORT; BASE YEAR; EQUIVALENT VARIATION; ESTIMATE IMPACT; ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGE; TARIFF SCHEDULE; POSITIVE IMPACT; INCOME GROWTH; APPAREL TARIFF; IMPORT PRICE; INCREASING TRADE; TRADE EXPORTS; NONMETALLIC MINERAL; TOURISM SERVICES; HIGH SHARE
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/485751644957468051/Estimating-the-Economic-and-Distributional-Impacts-of-the-Regional-Comprehensive-Economic-Partnership
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37012
Description
Summary:This paper applies a top-down, macro-micro modeling framework that links a computable general equilibrium model with the survey-based global income distribution dynamics model to assess the economic and distributional effects of the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Reductions of tariffs and non-tariff measures, implementation of a rule of origin, together with productivity gains stemming from trade cost reductions can strengthen regional trade and value chains among Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership members. The results of the analysis indicate that in an already deeply integrated region, tariff liberalization alone brings little benefit, with estimated real income gains of 0.21 percent relative to the baseline (without the RCEP) in 2035. With liberal rules of origin, the gains in real income could double to 0.49 percent. The biggest benefits accrue when the productivity gains are considered, increasing real income by as much as 2.5 percent for the trade bloc. In this scenario, trade among RCEP members increases by 12.3 percent in 2035 relative to the baseline. The RCEP also has the potential to lift 27 million additional people to middle-class status by 2035. It will also boost wages, with faster gains in sectors that employ larger shares of women. The aggregate effects mask large variety of outcomes across countries, with Vietnam expected to register the highest trade and income gains. Implementation of the RCEP help partially mitigate the negative economic impacts of COVID-19 in the East Asia and the Pacific region.

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