Long-Term Fiscal Risks and Sustainability in an Oil-Rich Country : The Case of Russia

Russia entered the global crisis with strong fiscal position, low public debt, and large fiscal and monetary reserves, which helped it cushion the crisis shocks. But the rise in the non-oil fiscal deficit in 2007-08 and, more importantly, the massi...

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Main Authors: Bogetic, Zeljko, Smits, Karlis, Budina, Nina, van Wijnbergen, Sweder
Format: Policy Research Working Paper
Language:English
Published: 2012
Subjects:
TAX
Online Access:http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20100317120425
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3727
id okr-10986-3727
recordtype oai_dc
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
topic ACCOUNTING
ALLOCATION
ARREARS
ASSET POSITION
BANK BORROWING
BANK EQUITY
BANK LENDING
BANK LOANS
BANK POLICY
BANKING CRISIS
BANKING SECTOR
BANKING SYSTEM
BASELINE SCENARIO
BASIS POINT
BASIS POINTS
BOND SPREADS
BUDGET BALANCE
BUDGET CONSTRAINT
BUDGET LAW
BUDGET PLANNING
CAPITAL ACCOUNT
CAPITAL ADEQUACY
CAPITAL FLOWS
CAPITAL FORMATION
CAPITAL GAIN
CAPITAL INFLOWS
CAPITAL INVESTMENT
CAPITAL MARKET
CAPITAL OUTFLOW
CAPITAL OUTFLOWS
CASH SETTLEMENTS
CENTRAL BANK
COLLATERAL
COMMERCIAL BANK
COMMERCIAL BANKS
CORPORATE BORROWERS
COUNTRY RISK
CREDIT RISK
CREDIT RISKS
CREDITOR
CURRENCY
CURRENCY CRISIS
DEBT ACCUMULATION
DEBT CRISES
DEBT DYNAMICS
DEBT LEVELS
DEBT OVERHANG
DEBT RESTRUCTURING
DEBT SERVICING
DEBT-SERVICE
DEBTOR
DEFAULT RISK
DEFICITS
DEPOSIT
DEPOSITS
DEVALUATION
DOMESTIC DEMAND
DOMESTIC GOODS
DOMESTIC INTEREST RATES
DOMESTIC LIQUIDITY
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMIC RECOVERY
EMERGING ECONOMIES
EMERGING MARKET
EMERGING MARKET BOND
EXCHANGE RATE
EXPENDITURE
EXPENDITURE COMMITMENTS
EXPENDITURE CONTROL
EXPENDITURE LEVEL
EXPENDITURE LEVELS
EXPENDITURE POLICY
EXPENDITURE PROGRAMS
EXPENDITURES
EXPORT GROWTH
EXPORTERS
EXTERNAL BORROWING
EXTERNAL FINANCING
FEDERAL BUDGET
FINANCIAL CONDITIONS
FINANCIAL CRISES
FINANCIAL CRISIS
FINANCIAL FLOWS
FINANCIAL SECTOR
FINANCIAL SECTOR INDICATORS
FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
FINANCIAL SYSTEM
FISCAL ADJUSTMENT
FISCAL BALANCE
FISCAL COST
FISCAL DEFICIT
FISCAL DEFICITS
FISCAL EXPENDITURE
FISCAL IMPLICATIONS
FISCAL LAXITY
FISCAL MANAGEMENT
FISCAL POLICY
FISCAL POSITION
FISCAL PROGRAM
FISCAL PRUDENCE
FISCAL REFORMS
FISCAL REVENUE
FISCAL RISK
FISCAL RISKS
FISCAL RULES
FISCAL SAVINGS
FISCAL STANCE
FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY
FIXED CAPITAL
FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE
FOREIGN BORROWING
FOREIGN CURRENCY
FOREIGN DEBT
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK
GOVERNMENT DEBT
GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE
GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
GOVERNMENT REVENUES
GROWTH RATE
HIGHER INTEREST
HIGHER INTEREST RATES
IMPLICIT SUBSIDIES
INCOME LEVEL
INCOME STREAM
INFLATION
INFLATIONARY PRESSURES
INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS
INTEREST EXPENDITURES
INTEREST RATE
INTEREST RATES
INTERNATIONAL BANK
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
INVESTMENT PROJECTS
LABOR MARKET
LEVEL OF DEBT
LEVEL OF RISK
LIQUIDITY RATIO
LOAN
LOAN PORTFOLIOS
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
MACROECONOMIC STABILITY
MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION
MARKET ACCESS
MARKET ECONOMY
MATURITIES
MEDIUM-TERM FISCAL FRAMEWORK
MINISTRY OF FINANCE
MONETARY FUND
NEGATIVE REAL INTEREST RATES
NET BORROWING
NET DEBT
NET PRESENT VALUE
NET SAVINGS
NON-PERFORMING LOANS
NONPAYMENT
NONPAYMENTS
OIL PRICE
OIL PRICES
OIL RESERVE
OIL RESERVES
OIL RESOURCES
OPERATIONAL DECISIONS
PENSIONS
PERPETUITY
POLICY RESPONSE
POVERTY REDUCTION
PRICE MOVEMENTS
PRICE UNCERTAINTY
PRICE VOLATILITY
PRIVATE CAPITAL
PRIVATE CAPITAL INFLOWS
PUBLIC DEBT
PUBLIC EXPENDITURE
PUBLIC EXPENDITURES
PUBLIC FINANCES
PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE
PUBLIC INVESTMENT
PUBLIC INVESTMENTS
PUBLIC SECTOR
PUBLIC SPENDING
REAL EXCHANGE RATE
REAL INTEREST
REAL INTEREST RATES
RESERVE
RESERVE FUND
RESERVES
RETURN
RETURNS
RISK ASSESSMENTS
SERVICE CHARGES
SOCIAL EXPENDITURE
SOCIAL PROGRAMS
SOCIAL SECURITY
SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM
SOFT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS
SOLVENCY
SPENDING LEVELS
STABILIZATION PROGRAMS
STOCKS
STRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENT
STRUCTURAL REFORMS
SUB-NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS
SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS
SUSTAINABLE FISCAL POLICY
TAX
TAX COLLECTIONS
TAX RATE
TOTAL EXPENDITURE
TRADE BALANCE
TRADE CREDITS
TRANSPARENCY
TREASURY
TREASURY MANAGEMENT
WORKING CAPITAL
spellingShingle ACCOUNTING
ALLOCATION
ARREARS
ASSET POSITION
BANK BORROWING
BANK EQUITY
BANK LENDING
BANK LOANS
BANK POLICY
BANKING CRISIS
BANKING SECTOR
BANKING SYSTEM
BASELINE SCENARIO
BASIS POINT
BASIS POINTS
BOND SPREADS
BUDGET BALANCE
BUDGET CONSTRAINT
BUDGET LAW
BUDGET PLANNING
CAPITAL ACCOUNT
CAPITAL ADEQUACY
CAPITAL FLOWS
CAPITAL FORMATION
CAPITAL GAIN
CAPITAL INFLOWS
CAPITAL INVESTMENT
CAPITAL MARKET
CAPITAL OUTFLOW
CAPITAL OUTFLOWS
CASH SETTLEMENTS
CENTRAL BANK
COLLATERAL
COMMERCIAL BANK
COMMERCIAL BANKS
CORPORATE BORROWERS
COUNTRY RISK
CREDIT RISK
CREDIT RISKS
CREDITOR
CURRENCY
CURRENCY CRISIS
DEBT ACCUMULATION
DEBT CRISES
DEBT DYNAMICS
DEBT LEVELS
DEBT OVERHANG
DEBT RESTRUCTURING
DEBT SERVICING
DEBT-SERVICE
DEBTOR
DEFAULT RISK
DEFICITS
DEPOSIT
DEPOSITS
DEVALUATION
DOMESTIC DEMAND
DOMESTIC GOODS
DOMESTIC INTEREST RATES
DOMESTIC LIQUIDITY
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMIC RECOVERY
EMERGING ECONOMIES
EMERGING MARKET
EMERGING MARKET BOND
EXCHANGE RATE
EXPENDITURE
EXPENDITURE COMMITMENTS
EXPENDITURE CONTROL
EXPENDITURE LEVEL
EXPENDITURE LEVELS
EXPENDITURE POLICY
EXPENDITURE PROGRAMS
EXPENDITURES
EXPORT GROWTH
EXPORTERS
EXTERNAL BORROWING
EXTERNAL FINANCING
FEDERAL BUDGET
FINANCIAL CONDITIONS
FINANCIAL CRISES
FINANCIAL CRISIS
FINANCIAL FLOWS
FINANCIAL SECTOR
FINANCIAL SECTOR INDICATORS
FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
FINANCIAL SYSTEM
FISCAL ADJUSTMENT
FISCAL BALANCE
FISCAL COST
FISCAL DEFICIT
FISCAL DEFICITS
FISCAL EXPENDITURE
FISCAL IMPLICATIONS
FISCAL LAXITY
FISCAL MANAGEMENT
FISCAL POLICY
FISCAL POSITION
FISCAL PROGRAM
FISCAL PRUDENCE
FISCAL REFORMS
FISCAL REVENUE
FISCAL RISK
FISCAL RISKS
FISCAL RULES
FISCAL SAVINGS
FISCAL STANCE
FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY
FIXED CAPITAL
FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE
FOREIGN BORROWING
FOREIGN CURRENCY
FOREIGN DEBT
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK
GOVERNMENT DEBT
GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE
GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
GOVERNMENT REVENUES
GROWTH RATE
HIGHER INTEREST
HIGHER INTEREST RATES
IMPLICIT SUBSIDIES
INCOME LEVEL
INCOME STREAM
INFLATION
INFLATIONARY PRESSURES
INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS
INTEREST EXPENDITURES
INTEREST RATE
INTEREST RATES
INTERNATIONAL BANK
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
INVESTMENT PROJECTS
LABOR MARKET
LEVEL OF DEBT
LEVEL OF RISK
LIQUIDITY RATIO
LOAN
LOAN PORTFOLIOS
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
MACROECONOMIC STABILITY
MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION
MARKET ACCESS
MARKET ECONOMY
MATURITIES
MEDIUM-TERM FISCAL FRAMEWORK
MINISTRY OF FINANCE
MONETARY FUND
NEGATIVE REAL INTEREST RATES
NET BORROWING
NET DEBT
NET PRESENT VALUE
NET SAVINGS
NON-PERFORMING LOANS
NONPAYMENT
NONPAYMENTS
OIL PRICE
OIL PRICES
OIL RESERVE
OIL RESERVES
OIL RESOURCES
OPERATIONAL DECISIONS
PENSIONS
PERPETUITY
POLICY RESPONSE
POVERTY REDUCTION
PRICE MOVEMENTS
PRICE UNCERTAINTY
PRICE VOLATILITY
PRIVATE CAPITAL
PRIVATE CAPITAL INFLOWS
PUBLIC DEBT
PUBLIC EXPENDITURE
PUBLIC EXPENDITURES
PUBLIC FINANCES
PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE
PUBLIC INVESTMENT
PUBLIC INVESTMENTS
PUBLIC SECTOR
PUBLIC SPENDING
REAL EXCHANGE RATE
REAL INTEREST
REAL INTEREST RATES
RESERVE
RESERVE FUND
RESERVES
RETURN
RETURNS
RISK ASSESSMENTS
SERVICE CHARGES
SOCIAL EXPENDITURE
SOCIAL PROGRAMS
SOCIAL SECURITY
SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM
SOFT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS
SOLVENCY
SPENDING LEVELS
STABILIZATION PROGRAMS
STOCKS
STRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENT
STRUCTURAL REFORMS
SUB-NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS
SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS
SUSTAINABLE FISCAL POLICY
TAX
TAX COLLECTIONS
TAX RATE
TOTAL EXPENDITURE
TRADE BALANCE
TRADE CREDITS
TRANSPARENCY
TREASURY
TREASURY MANAGEMENT
WORKING CAPITAL
Bogetic, Zeljko
Smits, Karlis
Budina, Nina
van Wijnbergen, Sweder
Long-Term Fiscal Risks and Sustainability in an Oil-Rich Country : The Case of Russia
geographic_facet Europe and Central Asia
Europe and Central Asia
Europe
Eastern Europe
Commonwealth of Independent States
Asia
Russian Federation
relation Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5240
description Russia entered the global crisis with strong fiscal position, low public debt, and large fiscal and monetary reserves, which helped it cushion the crisis shocks. But the rise in the non-oil fiscal deficit in 2007-08 and, more importantly, the massive impact of the global crisis in late 2008 and 2009 have dramatically altered Russia's medium-term and long-term economic and fiscal outlook. While Russia is emerging from this crisis on a much stronger footing than during the 1998-09 crisis thanks to its strong-pre crisis fundamentals, large fiscal reserves and solid management of the crisis, it will nevertheless need to implement sustained fiscal adjustment in the coming years. Both revenue and expenditure measures will be needed. This will require 2-3 percentage points of GDP in fiscal adjustment for about five years in addition to keeping total expenditure levels at a relatively low 31.5 percent of GDP, consistent with long-term social expenditure needs and requirements of long-term fiscal sustainability. Following a period of adjustment, if Russia would restrain its long-term non-oil deficits to the permanent income (PI) equivalent of its oil revenues as proposed in this paper, its fiscal policy will return to long-term sustainable path. The long-term, sustainable level of non-oil fiscal deficit is estimated at about 4.3 percent of GDP. With the 2009 actual non-oil fiscal deficit of about 14 percent of GDP, this implies significant and sustained fiscal adjustment over the medium term. The expenditure needs of the social security system as well as a reduction in key non-oil taxes represent a major fiscal risk to all scenarios.
format Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author Bogetic, Zeljko
Smits, Karlis
Budina, Nina
van Wijnbergen, Sweder
author_facet Bogetic, Zeljko
Smits, Karlis
Budina, Nina
van Wijnbergen, Sweder
author_sort Bogetic, Zeljko
title Long-Term Fiscal Risks and Sustainability in an Oil-Rich Country : The Case of Russia
title_short Long-Term Fiscal Risks and Sustainability in an Oil-Rich Country : The Case of Russia
title_full Long-Term Fiscal Risks and Sustainability in an Oil-Rich Country : The Case of Russia
title_fullStr Long-Term Fiscal Risks and Sustainability in an Oil-Rich Country : The Case of Russia
title_full_unstemmed Long-Term Fiscal Risks and Sustainability in an Oil-Rich Country : The Case of Russia
title_sort long-term fiscal risks and sustainability in an oil-rich country : the case of russia
publishDate 2012
url http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20100317120425
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3727
_version_ 1764388024863424512
spelling okr-10986-37272021-04-23T14:02:12Z Long-Term Fiscal Risks and Sustainability in an Oil-Rich Country : The Case of Russia Bogetic, Zeljko Smits, Karlis Budina, Nina van Wijnbergen, Sweder ACCOUNTING ALLOCATION ARREARS ASSET POSITION BANK BORROWING BANK EQUITY BANK LENDING BANK LOANS BANK POLICY BANKING CRISIS BANKING SECTOR BANKING SYSTEM BASELINE SCENARIO BASIS POINT BASIS POINTS BOND SPREADS BUDGET BALANCE BUDGET CONSTRAINT BUDGET LAW BUDGET PLANNING CAPITAL ACCOUNT CAPITAL ADEQUACY CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL GAIN CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL INVESTMENT CAPITAL MARKET CAPITAL OUTFLOW CAPITAL OUTFLOWS CASH SETTLEMENTS CENTRAL BANK COLLATERAL COMMERCIAL BANK COMMERCIAL BANKS CORPORATE BORROWERS COUNTRY RISK CREDIT RISK CREDIT RISKS CREDITOR CURRENCY CURRENCY CRISIS DEBT ACCUMULATION DEBT CRISES DEBT DYNAMICS DEBT LEVELS DEBT OVERHANG DEBT RESTRUCTURING DEBT SERVICING DEBT-SERVICE DEBTOR DEFAULT RISK DEFICITS DEPOSIT DEPOSITS DEVALUATION DOMESTIC DEMAND DOMESTIC GOODS DOMESTIC INTEREST RATES DOMESTIC LIQUIDITY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC RECOVERY EMERGING ECONOMIES EMERGING MARKET EMERGING MARKET BOND EXCHANGE RATE EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURE COMMITMENTS EXPENDITURE CONTROL EXPENDITURE LEVEL EXPENDITURE LEVELS EXPENDITURE POLICY EXPENDITURE PROGRAMS EXPENDITURES EXPORT GROWTH EXPORTERS EXTERNAL BORROWING EXTERNAL FINANCING FEDERAL BUDGET FINANCIAL CONDITIONS FINANCIAL CRISES FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL FLOWS FINANCIAL SECTOR FINANCIAL SECTOR INDICATORS FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FINANCIAL SYSTEM FISCAL ADJUSTMENT FISCAL BALANCE FISCAL COST FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL DEFICITS FISCAL EXPENDITURE FISCAL IMPLICATIONS FISCAL LAXITY FISCAL MANAGEMENT FISCAL POLICY FISCAL POSITION FISCAL PROGRAM FISCAL PRUDENCE FISCAL REFORMS FISCAL REVENUE FISCAL RISK FISCAL RISKS FISCAL RULES FISCAL SAVINGS FISCAL STANCE FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY FIXED CAPITAL FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE FOREIGN BORROWING FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN DEBT FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK GOVERNMENT DEBT GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT REVENUES GROWTH RATE HIGHER INTEREST HIGHER INTEREST RATES IMPLICIT SUBSIDIES INCOME LEVEL INCOME STREAM INFLATION INFLATIONARY PRESSURES INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS INTEREST EXPENDITURES INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVESTMENT PROJECTS LABOR MARKET LEVEL OF DEBT LEVEL OF RISK LIQUIDITY RATIO LOAN LOAN PORTFOLIOS MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION MARKET ACCESS MARKET ECONOMY MATURITIES MEDIUM-TERM FISCAL FRAMEWORK MINISTRY OF FINANCE MONETARY FUND NEGATIVE REAL INTEREST RATES NET BORROWING NET DEBT NET PRESENT VALUE NET SAVINGS NON-PERFORMING LOANS NONPAYMENT NONPAYMENTS OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OIL RESERVE OIL RESERVES OIL RESOURCES OPERATIONAL DECISIONS PENSIONS PERPETUITY POLICY RESPONSE POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE MOVEMENTS PRICE UNCERTAINTY PRICE VOLATILITY PRIVATE CAPITAL PRIVATE CAPITAL INFLOWS PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC EXPENDITURE PUBLIC EXPENDITURES PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC INVESTMENTS PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SPENDING REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL INTEREST REAL INTEREST RATES RESERVE RESERVE FUND RESERVES RETURN RETURNS RISK ASSESSMENTS SERVICE CHARGES SOCIAL EXPENDITURE SOCIAL PROGRAMS SOCIAL SECURITY SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM SOFT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS SOLVENCY SPENDING LEVELS STABILIZATION PROGRAMS STOCKS STRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENT STRUCTURAL REFORMS SUB-NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS SUSTAINABLE FISCAL POLICY TAX TAX COLLECTIONS TAX RATE TOTAL EXPENDITURE TRADE BALANCE TRADE CREDITS TRANSPARENCY TREASURY TREASURY MANAGEMENT WORKING CAPITAL Russia entered the global crisis with strong fiscal position, low public debt, and large fiscal and monetary reserves, which helped it cushion the crisis shocks. But the rise in the non-oil fiscal deficit in 2007-08 and, more importantly, the massive impact of the global crisis in late 2008 and 2009 have dramatically altered Russia's medium-term and long-term economic and fiscal outlook. While Russia is emerging from this crisis on a much stronger footing than during the 1998-09 crisis thanks to its strong-pre crisis fundamentals, large fiscal reserves and solid management of the crisis, it will nevertheless need to implement sustained fiscal adjustment in the coming years. Both revenue and expenditure measures will be needed. This will require 2-3 percentage points of GDP in fiscal adjustment for about five years in addition to keeping total expenditure levels at a relatively low 31.5 percent of GDP, consistent with long-term social expenditure needs and requirements of long-term fiscal sustainability. Following a period of adjustment, if Russia would restrain its long-term non-oil deficits to the permanent income (PI) equivalent of its oil revenues as proposed in this paper, its fiscal policy will return to long-term sustainable path. The long-term, sustainable level of non-oil fiscal deficit is estimated at about 4.3 percent of GDP. With the 2009 actual non-oil fiscal deficit of about 14 percent of GDP, this implies significant and sustained fiscal adjustment over the medium term. The expenditure needs of the social security system as well as a reduction in key non-oil taxes represent a major fiscal risk to all scenarios. 2012-03-19T18:38:43Z 2012-03-19T18:38:43Z 2010-03-01 http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20100317120425 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3727 English Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5240 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Europe and Central Asia Europe and Central Asia Europe Eastern Europe Commonwealth of Independent States Asia Russian Federation