Tracking Economic Fluctuations in Bangladesh with Electricity Consumption

This paper investigates whether electricity consumption is a useful indicator for tracking economic fluctuations in Bangladesh. It presents monthly data on national electricity consumption since 1993 and daily consumption data since February 2010 f...

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Main Authors:	Arshad, Selvia, Beyer, Robert C.M.
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2022
Subjects:	ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS COVID-19 PANDEMIC CORONAVIRUS NATURAL DISASTERS ECONOMIC INDICATORS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INDICATOR
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099239404072234329/IDU02a02a0540a4e3044450946b009fbff8f4528 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37296

id	okr-10986-37296
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-372962022-04-13T05:10:37Z Tracking Economic Fluctuations in Bangladesh with Electricity Consumption Arshad, Selvia Beyer, Robert C.M. ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS COVID-19 PANDEMIC CORONAVIRUS NATURAL DISASTERS ECONOMIC INDICATORS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INDICATOR This paper investigates whether electricity consumption is a useful indicator for tracking economic fluctuations in Bangladesh. It presents monthly data on national electricity consumption since 1993 and daily consumption data since February 2010 for the country’s eight divisions. National electricity consumption is strongly correlated with other high-frequency indicators of economic activity, and it has declined during natural disasters and the COVID-19 lockdowns. The paper estimates an electricity consumption model that explains over 90 percent of the variation in daily consumption based on the trend, seasonality, within-week variation, holidays, Ramadan, and temperature. Deviations from the model prediction can act as in indicator of economic fluctuations. For example, during the first COVID-19 lockdown in April 2020, electricity consumption in Dhaka fell over 40 percent compared with normal and remained below the normal level until early 2021. The later lockdowns, in contrast, had only small additional impacts, in line with less stringent containment measures and more effective adaptation. 2022-04-12T21:13:39Z 2022-04-12T21:13:39Z 2022-04 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099239404072234329/IDU02a02a0540a4e3044450946b009fbff8f4528 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37296 English Policy Research Working Paper;10002 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Bangladesh
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS COVID-19 PANDEMIC CORONAVIRUS NATURAL DISASTERS ECONOMIC INDICATORS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INDICATOR
spellingShingle	ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS COVID-19 PANDEMIC CORONAVIRUS NATURAL DISASTERS ECONOMIC INDICATORS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INDICATOR Arshad, Selvia Beyer, Robert C.M. Tracking Economic Fluctuations in Bangladesh with Electricity Consumption
geographic_facet	Bangladesh
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;10002
description	This paper investigates whether electricity consumption is a useful indicator for tracking economic fluctuations in Bangladesh. It presents monthly data on national electricity consumption since 1993 and daily consumption data since February 2010 for the country’s eight divisions. National electricity consumption is strongly correlated with other high-frequency indicators of economic activity, and it has declined during natural disasters and the COVID-19 lockdowns. The paper estimates an electricity consumption model that explains over 90 percent of the variation in daily consumption based on the trend, seasonality, within-week variation, holidays, Ramadan, and temperature. Deviations from the model prediction can act as in indicator of economic fluctuations. For example, during the first COVID-19 lockdown in April 2020, electricity consumption in Dhaka fell over 40 percent compared with normal and remained below the normal level until early 2021. The later lockdowns, in contrast, had only small additional impacts, in line with less stringent containment measures and more effective adaptation.
format	Working Paper
author	Arshad, Selvia Beyer, Robert C.M.
author_facet	Arshad, Selvia Beyer, Robert C.M.
author_sort	Arshad, Selvia
title	Tracking Economic Fluctuations in Bangladesh with Electricity Consumption
title_short	Tracking Economic Fluctuations in Bangladesh with Electricity Consumption
title_full	Tracking Economic Fluctuations in Bangladesh with Electricity Consumption
title_fullStr	Tracking Economic Fluctuations in Bangladesh with Electricity Consumption
title_full_unstemmed	Tracking Economic Fluctuations in Bangladesh with Electricity Consumption
title_sort	tracking economic fluctuations in bangladesh with electricity consumption
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2022
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099239404072234329/IDU02a02a0540a4e3044450946b009fbff8f4528 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37296
_version_	1764486893266796544

Tracking Economic Fluctuations in Bangladesh with Electricity Consumption

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