Near-Real-Time Welfare and Livelihood Impacts of an Active Civil War : Evidence from Ethiopia
Ethiopia is currently embroiled in a large-scale civil war that has continued for more than a year. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey data, which spans several months before and after the outbreak of the war, this paper provides fresh eviden...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2022
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099237104142234870/IDU0852cd3970e8df04e170b3430d96d0e0c6179 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37309 |
| id |
okr-10986-37309 |
|---|---|
| recordtype |
oai_dc |
| spelling |
okr-10986-373092022-04-18T17:09:20Z Near-Real-Time Welfare and Livelihood Impacts of an Active Civil War : Evidence from Ethiopia Abay, Kibrom A. Tafere, Kibrom Berhane, Guush Chamberlin, Jordan Abay, Mehari H. CIVIL WAR CONFLICT FOOD INSECURITY LIVELIHOODS PHONE SURVEY DATA FOOD ASSISTANCE WELFARE IMPACT OF ARMED CONFLICT ARMED CONFLICT WAR IMPACT HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE VIOLENT CONFLICT CONFLICT AND DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME Ethiopia is currently embroiled in a large-scale civil war that has continued for more than a year. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey data, which spans several months before and after the outbreak of the war, this paper provides fresh evidence on the ex durante impacts of the conflict on the food security and livelihood activities of affected households. The analysis uses difference-in-differences estimation to compare trends in the outcomes of interest across affected and unaffected regions (households) and before and after the outbreak of the civil war. The findings show that seven months into the conflict, the outbreak of the civil war increased the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity by 38 percentage points. Using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data on households’ exposure to violent conflict, the analysis shows that exposure to one additional battle leads to a 1 percentage point increase in the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity. The conflict has reduced households’ access to food through supply chain disruptions while also curtailing non-farm livelihood activities. Non-farm and wage-related activities have been the most affected by the conflict, while farming activities have been relatively more resilient. Similarly, economic activities in urban areas have been much more affected than those in rural areas. These substantial impact estimates, which are likely to be underestimates of the true average effects on the population, constitute novel evidence of the near-real-time impacts of an ongoing civil conflict, providing direct evidence of how violent conflict disrupts the functioning of market supply chains and livelihoods activities. The paper highlights the potential of phone surveys to monitor active and large-scale conflicts, especially in contexts where conventional data sources are not immediately available. 2022-04-15T19:59:20Z 2022-04-15T19:59:20Z 2022-04 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099237104142234870/IDU0852cd3970e8df04e170b3430d96d0e0c6179 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37309 English Policy Research Working Paper;10004 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Ethiopia |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
CIVIL WAR CONFLICT FOOD INSECURITY LIVELIHOODS PHONE SURVEY DATA FOOD ASSISTANCE WELFARE IMPACT OF ARMED CONFLICT ARMED CONFLICT WAR IMPACT HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE VIOLENT CONFLICT CONFLICT AND DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME |
| spellingShingle |
CIVIL WAR CONFLICT FOOD INSECURITY LIVELIHOODS PHONE SURVEY DATA FOOD ASSISTANCE WELFARE IMPACT OF ARMED CONFLICT ARMED CONFLICT WAR IMPACT HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE VIOLENT CONFLICT CONFLICT AND DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME Abay, Kibrom A. Tafere, Kibrom Berhane, Guush Chamberlin, Jordan Abay, Mehari H. Near-Real-Time Welfare and Livelihood Impacts of an Active Civil War : Evidence from Ethiopia |
| geographic_facet |
Ethiopia |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;10004 |
| description |
Ethiopia is currently embroiled in a
large-scale civil war that has continued for more than a
year. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey data, which
spans several months before and after the outbreak of the
war, this paper provides fresh evidence on the ex durante
impacts of the conflict on the food security and livelihood
activities of affected households. The analysis uses
difference-in-differences estimation to compare trends in
the outcomes of interest across affected and unaffected
regions (households) and before and after the outbreak of
the civil war. The findings show that seven months into the
conflict, the outbreak of the civil war increased the
probability of moderate to severe food insecurity by 38
percentage points. Using the Armed Conflict Location and
Event Data on households’ exposure to violent conflict, the
analysis shows that exposure to one additional battle leads
to a 1 percentage point increase in the probability of
moderate to severe food insecurity. The conflict has reduced
households’ access to food through supply chain disruptions
while also curtailing non-farm livelihood activities.
Non-farm and wage-related activities have been the most
affected by the conflict, while farming activities have been
relatively more resilient. Similarly, economic activities in
urban areas have been much more affected than those in rural
areas. These substantial impact estimates, which are likely
to be underestimates of the true average effects on the
population, constitute novel evidence of the near-real-time
impacts of an ongoing civil conflict, providing direct
evidence of how violent conflict disrupts the functioning of
market supply chains and livelihoods activities. The paper
highlights the potential of phone surveys to monitor active
and large-scale conflicts, especially in contexts where
conventional data sources are not immediately available. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Abay, Kibrom A. Tafere, Kibrom Berhane, Guush Chamberlin, Jordan Abay, Mehari H. |
| author_facet |
Abay, Kibrom A. Tafere, Kibrom Berhane, Guush Chamberlin, Jordan Abay, Mehari H. |
| author_sort |
Abay, Kibrom A. |
| title |
Near-Real-Time Welfare and Livelihood Impacts of an Active Civil War : Evidence from Ethiopia |
| title_short |
Near-Real-Time Welfare and Livelihood Impacts of an Active Civil War : Evidence from Ethiopia |
| title_full |
Near-Real-Time Welfare and Livelihood Impacts of an Active Civil War : Evidence from Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr |
Near-Real-Time Welfare and Livelihood Impacts of an Active Civil War : Evidence from Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Near-Real-Time Welfare and Livelihood Impacts of an Active Civil War : Evidence from Ethiopia |
| title_sort |
near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active civil war : evidence from ethiopia |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2022 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099237104142234870/IDU0852cd3970e8df04e170b3430d96d0e0c6179 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37309 |
| _version_ |
1764486919552499712 |