Superstitions and Civilian Displacement : Evidence from the Colombian Conflict
Violence during armed conflict has been explained using a variety of theories, including rationality, organizational dynamics, and personal and collective grievances. These explanations overlook the significance of so-called “irrational” belief sys...
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2022
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099851504262235525/IDU0ccf9533d00a44048a908f940ebbf3528dc2b http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37392 |
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okr-10986-373922022-05-05T05:10:49Z Superstitions and Civilian Displacement : Evidence from the Colombian Conflict Kaplan, Oliver SUPERSTITION ARMED CONFLICT VIOLENCE AND IRRATIONAL BELIEF SYSTEMS CIVILIAN DISPLACEMENT AND SUPERSTITION CONFLICT ZONE TOLERANCE CONFLICT LIVING CONDITIONS REFUGEE POPULATION CIVIL WAR RATIONALITY RELIGION FORCED DISPLACEMENT FORCED DISPLACEMENT CIVILIAN BEHAVIOR DURING ARMED CONFLICT Violence during armed conflict has been explained using a variety of theories, including rationality, organizational dynamics, and personal and collective grievances. These explanations overlook the significance of so-called “irrational” belief systems that are found in different countries among both combatants and the general population. Conflict-related religious and superstitious beliefs can shape civilians’ faith, resolve, optimism, social ties, and therefore levels of risk-acceptance and decisions to displace from their communities. This study explores new survey and interview data from Colombia from 2016–2019 and shows that a substantial share of the conflict-affected population holds a variety of conflict-related superstitious beliefs. The determinants of these beliefs are analyzed and impacts assessed on three key displacement-related outcomes: How likely are individuals to displace if their town is attacked; how they cope with the difficulties of daily life in conflict zones (resilience); and would they recommend that displaced relatives return home. Regression analysis, statistical matching techniques, and interview and focus group accounts indicate how superstitions and religious beliefs and practices affect these outcomes. The paper concludes with implications for the field of conflict studies, as existing theories of conflict and violence may be based on incomplete foundations and inaccurate models of decision-making. 2022-05-04T20:15:03Z 2022-05-04T20:15:03Z 2022-04 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099851504262235525/IDU0ccf9533d00a44048a908f940ebbf3528dc2b http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37392 English Policy Research Working Paper;10023 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Colombia |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
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World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
SUPERSTITION ARMED CONFLICT VIOLENCE AND IRRATIONAL BELIEF SYSTEMS CIVILIAN DISPLACEMENT AND SUPERSTITION CONFLICT ZONE TOLERANCE CONFLICT LIVING CONDITIONS REFUGEE POPULATION CIVIL WAR RATIONALITY RELIGION FORCED DISPLACEMENT FORCED DISPLACEMENT CIVILIAN BEHAVIOR DURING ARMED CONFLICT |
| spellingShingle |
SUPERSTITION ARMED CONFLICT VIOLENCE AND IRRATIONAL BELIEF SYSTEMS CIVILIAN DISPLACEMENT AND SUPERSTITION CONFLICT ZONE TOLERANCE CONFLICT LIVING CONDITIONS REFUGEE POPULATION CIVIL WAR RATIONALITY RELIGION FORCED DISPLACEMENT FORCED DISPLACEMENT CIVILIAN BEHAVIOR DURING ARMED CONFLICT Kaplan, Oliver Superstitions and Civilian Displacement : Evidence from the Colombian Conflict |
| geographic_facet |
Colombia |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;10023 |
| description |
Violence during armed conflict has
been explained using a variety of theories, including
rationality, organizational dynamics, and personal and
collective grievances. These explanations overlook the
significance of so-called “irrational” belief systems that
are found in different countries among both combatants and
the general population. Conflict-related religious and
superstitious beliefs can shape civilians’ faith, resolve,
optimism, social ties, and therefore levels of
risk-acceptance and decisions to displace from their
communities. This study explores new survey and interview
data from Colombia from 2016–2019 and shows that a
substantial share of the conflict-affected population holds
a variety of conflict-related superstitious beliefs. The
determinants of these beliefs are analyzed and impacts
assessed on three key displacement-related outcomes: How
likely are individuals to displace if their town is
attacked; how they cope with the difficulties of daily life
in conflict zones (resilience); and would they recommend
that displaced relatives return home. Regression analysis,
statistical matching techniques, and interview and focus
group accounts indicate how superstitions and religious
beliefs and practices affect these outcomes. The paper
concludes with implications for the field of conflict
studies, as existing theories of conflict and violence may
be based on incomplete foundations and inaccurate models of decision-making. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Kaplan, Oliver |
| author_facet |
Kaplan, Oliver |
| author_sort |
Kaplan, Oliver |
| title |
Superstitions and Civilian Displacement : Evidence from the Colombian Conflict |
| title_short |
Superstitions and Civilian Displacement : Evidence from the Colombian Conflict |
| title_full |
Superstitions and Civilian Displacement : Evidence from the Colombian Conflict |
| title_fullStr |
Superstitions and Civilian Displacement : Evidence from the Colombian Conflict |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Superstitions and Civilian Displacement : Evidence from the Colombian Conflict |
| title_sort |
superstitions and civilian displacement : evidence from the colombian conflict |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2022 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099851504262235525/IDU0ccf9533d00a44048a908f940ebbf3528dc2b http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37392 |
| _version_ |
1764487051933122560 |