Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Cyclones in a Changing Climate : Potential Damages and Adaptation Cost
This paper integrates information on climate change, hydrodynamic models, and geographic overlays to assess the vulnerability of coastal areas in Bangladesh to larger storm surges and sea-level rise by 2050. The approach identifies polders (diked a...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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2012
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| Online Access: | http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20100426144005 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3767 |
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okr-10986-3767 |
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| recordtype |
oai_dc |
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Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
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World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
ACCIDENT AFFORESTATION AIR AIR TEMPERATURE ANNUAL COST ANNUAL GROWTH RATE APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE BASES BUILDING CODES CASUALTIES CASUALTY CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS CLIMATE CHANGE INVESTMENT CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE RESEARCH CLIMATE VARIABLES CLIMATES CLIMATIC CHANGE CLIMATOLOGY CONCENTRATES CONDENSATION CONSEQUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS COPE WITH CLIMATE CHANGE COST ESTIMATES CYCLONE ACTIVITY CYCLONE EVENTS CYCLONE PREPAREDNESS CYCLONE TRACKS CYCLONES CYCLONIC STORMS DAMAGES DEVASTATION DISASTER DISASTER MANAGEMENT DISASTER PREPAREDNESS DISASTER RECOVERY DISASTER RISK DISASTER RISKS DISASTERS EARLY WARNING EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMICS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE ELECTRICITY EMERGENCY SHELTER EMERGENCY SHELTERS EPIDEMIOLOGY EVACUATION EVACUATIONS FATALITIES FATALITY FINANCIAL SUPPORT FLOOD FLOODS FOREST FORESTS GLOBAL CLIMATE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL WARMING GREENHOUSE GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS HUMIDITY HURRICANE HURRICANE INTENSITY HURRICANES ICE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEED INFORMATION ON CLIMATE INFORMATION ON CLIMATE CHANGE INFORMATION SYSTEM INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC LAND SURFACE MAJOR HURRICANES MANGROVE FOREST MANGROVE FORESTS MAXIMUM WIND SPEED METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH METEOROLOGY MONSOON MORTALITY RISK NATURAL HAZARDS OCEANS PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA INCOME POWER PLANTS POWER SECTOR PP PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE RAINFALL RAINY SEASON REGIONAL CLIMATE REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE SEA LEVEL RISE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SEA-LEVEL SEA-LEVEL RISE STORM SURGE STORM SURGE INUNDATION STORM SURGE MODEL STORM SURGES STORM TRACKS STORMS SUPER CYCLONES SUPER CYCLONIC STORM SURFACE DATA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SURGE FLOODING SURGE HEIGHT TIDAL WAVES TOTAL COST TOTAL DAMAGES TROPICAL CYCLONE TROPICAL CYCLONES TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS TROPICAL STORMS TROPOSPHERE TSUNAMIS UPPER ATMOSPHERE WIND WIND SPEED WIND SPEEDS WIND STRESS WIND VELOCITY WINDS |
| spellingShingle |
ACCIDENT AFFORESTATION AIR AIR TEMPERATURE ANNUAL COST ANNUAL GROWTH RATE APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE BASES BUILDING CODES CASUALTIES CASUALTY CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS CLIMATE CHANGE INVESTMENT CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE RESEARCH CLIMATE VARIABLES CLIMATES CLIMATIC CHANGE CLIMATOLOGY CONCENTRATES CONDENSATION CONSEQUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS COPE WITH CLIMATE CHANGE COST ESTIMATES CYCLONE ACTIVITY CYCLONE EVENTS CYCLONE PREPAREDNESS CYCLONE TRACKS CYCLONES CYCLONIC STORMS DAMAGES DEVASTATION DISASTER DISASTER MANAGEMENT DISASTER PREPAREDNESS DISASTER RECOVERY DISASTER RISK DISASTER RISKS DISASTERS EARLY WARNING EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMICS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE ELECTRICITY EMERGENCY SHELTER EMERGENCY SHELTERS EPIDEMIOLOGY EVACUATION EVACUATIONS FATALITIES FATALITY FINANCIAL SUPPORT FLOOD FLOODS FOREST FORESTS GLOBAL CLIMATE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL WARMING GREENHOUSE GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS HUMIDITY HURRICANE HURRICANE INTENSITY HURRICANES ICE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEED INFORMATION ON CLIMATE INFORMATION ON CLIMATE CHANGE INFORMATION SYSTEM INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC LAND SURFACE MAJOR HURRICANES MANGROVE FOREST MANGROVE FORESTS MAXIMUM WIND SPEED METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH METEOROLOGY MONSOON MORTALITY RISK NATURAL HAZARDS OCEANS PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA INCOME POWER PLANTS POWER SECTOR PP PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE RAINFALL RAINY SEASON REGIONAL CLIMATE REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE SEA LEVEL RISE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SEA-LEVEL SEA-LEVEL RISE STORM SURGE STORM SURGE INUNDATION STORM SURGE MODEL STORM SURGES STORM TRACKS STORMS SUPER CYCLONES SUPER CYCLONIC STORM SURFACE DATA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SURGE FLOODING SURGE HEIGHT TIDAL WAVES TOTAL COST TOTAL DAMAGES TROPICAL CYCLONE TROPICAL CYCLONES TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS TROPICAL STORMS TROPOSPHERE TSUNAMIS UPPER ATMOSPHERE WIND WIND SPEED WIND SPEEDS WIND STRESS WIND VELOCITY WINDS Dasgupta, Susmita Huq, Mainul Khan, Zahirul Huq Ahmed, Manjur Murshed Zahid Mukherjee, Nandan Khan, Malik Fida Pandey, Kiran Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Cyclones in a Changing Climate : Potential Damages and Adaptation Cost |
| geographic_facet |
South Asia South Asia South Asia Asia Bangladesh |
| relation |
Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5280 |
| description |
This paper integrates information on
climate change, hydrodynamic models, and geographic overlays
to assess the vulnerability of coastal areas in Bangladesh
to larger storm surges and sea-level rise by 2050. The
approach identifies polders (diked areas), coastal
populations, settlements, infrastructure, and economic
activity at risk of inundation, and estimates the cost of
damage versus the cost of several adaptation measures. A
27-centimeter sea-level rise and 10 percent intensification
of wind speed from global warming suggests the vulnerable
zone increases in size by 69 percent given a +3-meter
inundation depth and by 14 percent given a +1-meter
inundation depth. At present, Bangladesh has 123 polders, an
early warning and evacuation system, and more than 2,400
emergency shelters to protect coastal inhabitants from tidal
waves and storm surges. However, in a changing climate, it
is estimated that 59 of the 123 polders would be overtopped
during storm surges and another 5,500 cyclone shelters (each
with the capacity of 1,600 people) to safeguard the
population would be needed. Investments including
strengthening polders, foreshore afforestation, additional
multi-purpose cyclone shelters, cyclone-resistant private
housing, and further strengthening of the early warning and
evacuation system would cost more than $2.4 billion with an
annual recurrent cost of more than $50 million. However, a
conservative damage estimate suggests that the incremental
cost of adapting to these climate change related risks by
2050 is small compared with the potential damage in the
absence of adaptation measures. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Dasgupta, Susmita Huq, Mainul Khan, Zahirul Huq Ahmed, Manjur Murshed Zahid Mukherjee, Nandan Khan, Malik Fida Pandey, Kiran |
| author_facet |
Dasgupta, Susmita Huq, Mainul Khan, Zahirul Huq Ahmed, Manjur Murshed Zahid Mukherjee, Nandan Khan, Malik Fida Pandey, Kiran |
| author_sort |
Dasgupta, Susmita |
| title |
Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Cyclones in a Changing Climate : Potential Damages and Adaptation Cost |
| title_short |
Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Cyclones in a Changing Climate : Potential Damages and Adaptation Cost |
| title_full |
Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Cyclones in a Changing Climate : Potential Damages and Adaptation Cost |
| title_fullStr |
Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Cyclones in a Changing Climate : Potential Damages and Adaptation Cost |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Cyclones in a Changing Climate : Potential Damages and Adaptation Cost |
| title_sort |
vulnerability of bangladesh to cyclones in a changing climate : potential damages and adaptation cost |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20100426144005 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3767 |
| _version_ |
1764388230305677312 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-37672021-04-23T14:02:12Z Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Cyclones in a Changing Climate : Potential Damages and Adaptation Cost Dasgupta, Susmita Huq, Mainul Khan, Zahirul Huq Ahmed, Manjur Murshed Zahid Mukherjee, Nandan Khan, Malik Fida Pandey, Kiran ACCIDENT AFFORESTATION AIR AIR TEMPERATURE ANNUAL COST ANNUAL GROWTH RATE APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE BASES BUILDING CODES CASUALTIES CASUALTY CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS CLIMATE CHANGE INVESTMENT CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE RESEARCH CLIMATE VARIABLES CLIMATES CLIMATIC CHANGE CLIMATOLOGY CONCENTRATES CONDENSATION CONSEQUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS COPE WITH CLIMATE CHANGE COST ESTIMATES CYCLONE ACTIVITY CYCLONE EVENTS CYCLONE PREPAREDNESS CYCLONE TRACKS CYCLONES CYCLONIC STORMS DAMAGES DEVASTATION DISASTER DISASTER MANAGEMENT DISASTER PREPAREDNESS DISASTER RECOVERY DISASTER RISK DISASTER RISKS DISASTERS EARLY WARNING EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMICS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE ELECTRICITY EMERGENCY SHELTER EMERGENCY SHELTERS EPIDEMIOLOGY EVACUATION EVACUATIONS FATALITIES FATALITY FINANCIAL SUPPORT FLOOD FLOODS FOREST FORESTS GLOBAL CLIMATE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL WARMING GREENHOUSE GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS HUMIDITY HURRICANE HURRICANE INTENSITY HURRICANES ICE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEED INFORMATION ON CLIMATE INFORMATION ON CLIMATE CHANGE INFORMATION SYSTEM INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC LAND SURFACE MAJOR HURRICANES MANGROVE FOREST MANGROVE FORESTS MAXIMUM WIND SPEED METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH METEOROLOGY MONSOON MORTALITY RISK NATURAL HAZARDS OCEANS PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA INCOME POWER PLANTS POWER SECTOR PP PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE RAINFALL RAINY SEASON REGIONAL CLIMATE REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE SEA LEVEL RISE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SEA-LEVEL SEA-LEVEL RISE STORM SURGE STORM SURGE INUNDATION STORM SURGE MODEL STORM SURGES STORM TRACKS STORMS SUPER CYCLONES SUPER CYCLONIC STORM SURFACE DATA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SURGE FLOODING SURGE HEIGHT TIDAL WAVES TOTAL COST TOTAL DAMAGES TROPICAL CYCLONE TROPICAL CYCLONES TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS TROPICAL STORMS TROPOSPHERE TSUNAMIS UPPER ATMOSPHERE WIND WIND SPEED WIND SPEEDS WIND STRESS WIND VELOCITY WINDS This paper integrates information on climate change, hydrodynamic models, and geographic overlays to assess the vulnerability of coastal areas in Bangladesh to larger storm surges and sea-level rise by 2050. The approach identifies polders (diked areas), coastal populations, settlements, infrastructure, and economic activity at risk of inundation, and estimates the cost of damage versus the cost of several adaptation measures. A 27-centimeter sea-level rise and 10 percent intensification of wind speed from global warming suggests the vulnerable zone increases in size by 69 percent given a +3-meter inundation depth and by 14 percent given a +1-meter inundation depth. At present, Bangladesh has 123 polders, an early warning and evacuation system, and more than 2,400 emergency shelters to protect coastal inhabitants from tidal waves and storm surges. However, in a changing climate, it is estimated that 59 of the 123 polders would be overtopped during storm surges and another 5,500 cyclone shelters (each with the capacity of 1,600 people) to safeguard the population would be needed. Investments including strengthening polders, foreshore afforestation, additional multi-purpose cyclone shelters, cyclone-resistant private housing, and further strengthening of the early warning and evacuation system would cost more than $2.4 billion with an annual recurrent cost of more than $50 million. However, a conservative damage estimate suggests that the incremental cost of adapting to these climate change related risks by 2050 is small compared with the potential damage in the absence of adaptation measures. 2012-03-19T18:39:27Z 2012-03-19T18:39:27Z 2010-04-01 http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20100426144005 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3767 English Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5280 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper South Asia South Asia South Asia Asia Bangladesh |