Trade Crisis and Recovery : Restructuring of Global Value Chains

The recent large and rapid slowdown in economic activity has resulted in even larger and more rapid declines in international trade. As world trade is set to rebound, this paper addresses three questions: (i) Will trade volumes rebound in a symmetr...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Milberg, William, Winkler, Deborah
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	2012
Subjects:	ABSOLUTE VALUE AGGREGATE DEMAND ANNUAL GROWTH AVERAGE COSTS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BANK CREDIT BARRIERS BENCHMARK BILATERAL EXCHANGE RATE BORROWERS BUSINESS CYCLE BUSINESS CYCLES BUSINESS INVESTMENT CAPITAL CAPITAL ALLOCATION CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL GOOD CAPITAL GOODS COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMUNICATION COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE CONSOLIDATION CONSUMER DEBT CONSUMER DEMAND CONSUMER DURABLES CONSUMER GOODS CONSUMPTION CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE CONSUMPTION GOOD CONSUMPTION GOODS COST STRUCTURE CREDIT CRITERIA CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT CURRENT ACCOUNT IMBALANCE DEBT DEMAND DECLINES DEMAND GROWTH DEPRECIATION DEPRESSION DEPRESSIONS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPING ECONOMIES DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES DOLLAR PEG DOMESTIC PRICE DURABLE GOODS ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DOWNTURN ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY ECONOMIC GROUPINGS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN ECONOMIC THEORY ECONOMICS ECONOMIES ECONOMIES OF SCALE ELASTICITY ERROR CORRECTION MODEL ERROR CORRECTION TERM ERROR TERM EXCHANGE RATE POLICY EXPANSIONARY FISCAL POLICY EXPORT CREDIT EXPORT GROWTH EXPORT MARKETS EXPORT REVENUE EXPORT REVENUES EXPORT SHARE EXPORT SHARES EXPORTERS EXPORTS EXTERNAL TRADE FEDERAL RESERVE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT FINANCIAL MARKET FINANCIAL MARKETS FINANCIAL SERVICES FISCAL POLICY FIXED COSTS FORECASTS FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES FUTURE GDP GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION GLOBAL CORPORATIONS GLOBAL ECONOMICS GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL EXPORT GLOBAL EXPORTS GLOBAL TRADE GLOBALIZATION GOODS GOVERNANCE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH IN TRADE GROWTH POTENTIAL GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES IMBALANCES IMPORT IMPORT CONTENT IMPORT DEMAND IMPORT GROWTH IMPORT TARIFF IMPORTS IMPORTS GOODS INCOME ELASTICITIES INCOME ELASTICITY INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS INFORMATION SERVICES INPUTS INSURANCE INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL BANKING INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVENTORIES INVENTORY INVESTMENT DEMAND INVESTMENT GOODS LAGS LIBERALIZATION OF TRADE LINES OF CREDIT MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS MAJOR CURRENCIES MARGINAL PRODUCTIVITY MARKET DEMAND MARKET FAILURE MARKET SHARE MARKET SHARES MARKETS MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRY NATIONAL INCOME OIL PRICES OUTPUT OUTSOURCING PARTICULAR COUNTRIES PAYMENT GUARANTEES PAYMENT SYSTEMS PAYMENTS POLITICAL ECONOMY PRICE ELASTICITIES PRIVATE SAVING PRODUCTION PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION STRUCTURE PROTECTIONISM REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE REAL IMPORT REAL INCOME RECESSION RECESSIONS RENT RESERVE ACCUMULATION REVALUATION RISK SECONDARY MARKET SIDE EFFECTS SLOWDOWN SPEED OF ADJUSTMENT STRUCTURAL CHANGE SUBSTITUTION EFFECT SUPPLIES SUPPLY SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE TELECOMMUNICATIONS THEORY TOTAL EXPORT TOTAL EXPORTS TOTAL IMPORTS TOTAL MARKET TRADE TRADE CREDIT TRADE DATA TRADE EXPANSION TRADE FINANCE TRADE FINANCING TRADE GROWTH TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE LOSSES TRADE OPENNESS TRADE PATTERNS TRADE PROTECTION TRADE RELATION TRADE STATISTICS TRADE TRANSACTIONS TRADING PARTNERS TRANSACTIONS COST TRANSACTIONS COSTS TRENDS TROUGH UNCERTAINTY UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES VALUE VALUE ADDED VARIABLE COSTS VARIABLE INPUTS VARIABLES VERTICAL INTEGRATION VOLATILITY VOLUME OF TRADE WAGES WORLD DEMAND WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS WORLD ECONOMY WORLD MARKET WORLD MARKET SHARE WORLD TRADE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION WTO
Online Access:	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20100507080428 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3780

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Summary:	The recent large and rapid slowdown in economic activity has resulted in even larger and more rapid declines in international trade. As world trade is set to rebound, this paper addresses three questions: (i) Will trade volumes rebound in a symmetric fashion as world economic growth rebounds? (ii) Will the crisis result in a change in the structure of trade, and in particular will it lead to a reversal of the pattern of more diversified sourcing and thus to a consolidation of global value chains? (iii) What policies can improve the prospects for developing country growth in the event that trade volumes do not rebound symmetrically and there is a consolidation of some global value chains?

Trade Crisis and Recovery : Restructuring of Global Value Chains

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