Do We Need A Zero Pure Time Preference or the Risk of Climate Catastrophes to Justify A 2°C Global Warming Target?
This paper confronts the wide political support for the 2C objective of global increase in temperature, reaffirmed in Copenhagen, with the consistent set of hypotheses on which it relies. It explains why neither an almost zero pure time preference...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
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2012
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| Online Access: | http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20100730104858 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3876 |
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okr-10986-38762021-04-23T14:02:13Z Do We Need A Zero Pure Time Preference or the Risk of Climate Catastrophes to Justify A 2°C Global Warming Target? Dumas, P. Hourcade, J. C. Fabert, B. Perrissin ABATEMENT COST ABATEMENT COSTS ABATEMENT POLICIES ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE EFFECT ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ATMOSPHERE ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS BASELINE EMISSIONS BIOSPHERE CAPITAL STOCKS CAPITAL TURNOVER CARBON CARBON CYCLE CARBON DYNAMICS CARBON EMISSIONS CARBON FLOWS CARBON INTENSITY CARBON PRICES CARBON SAVING TECHNOLOGIES CARBON-CYCLE MODEL CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE CATASTROPHIC DAMAGES CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE DAMAGE CLIMATE CHANGE DAMAGES CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS CLIMATE DAMAGE CLIMATE MITIGATION CLIMATE MODEL CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE POLICIES CLIMATE SCENARIOS CLIMATE SENSITIVITY CLIMATE SYSTEM CLIMATE VARIABILITY CLIMATIC CHANGE CO2 COST OF ABATEMENT COST OF CLIMATE CHANGE COST-BENEFIT COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS COST-BENEFIT FRAMEWORK DEEP OCEAN DEFORESTATION DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DISCOUNT FACTOR DISCOUNT RATE DISCOUNT RATES ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC MODELS ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ECOSYSTEM EMISSION EMISSION ABATEMENT EMISSIONS ABATEMENT EMISSIONS PATHWAYS ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS EXTREME VALUES GHG GHGS GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE VARIATION GLOBAL TEMPERATURE GLOBAL WARMING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE INTEREST RATE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS IPCC LAND-USE CHANGE LEVEL OF EMISSIONS MONETARY VALUES PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION RADIATIVE FORCING RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE RESERVOIRS SCENARIOS SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE SURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE INCREASE TEMPERATURE RANGE TEMPERATURE RISES TEMPERATURE THRESHOLDS TEMPERATURES UTILITY FUNCTION VALUE OF CLIMATE SENSITIVITY WELFARE FUNCTION This paper confronts the wide political support for the 2C objective of global increase in temperature, reaffirmed in Copenhagen, with the consistent set of hypotheses on which it relies. It explains why neither an almost zero pure time preference nor concerns about catastrophic damages in case of uncontrolled global warming are prerequisites for policy decisions preserving the possibility of meeting a 2C target. It rests on an optimal stochastic control model balancing the costs and benefits of climate policies resolved sequentially in order to account for the arrival of new information (the RESPONSE model). This model describes the optimal abatement pathways for 2,304 worldviews, combining hypotheses about growth rates, baseline emissions, abatement costs, pure time preference, damages, and climate sensitivity. It shows that 26 percent of the worldviews selecting the 2C target are not characterized by one of the extreme assumptions about pure time preference or climate change damages. 2012-03-19T18:41:23Z 2012-03-19T18:41:23Z 2010-07-01 http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20100730104858 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3876 English Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5392 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper The World Region The World Region |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
ABATEMENT COST ABATEMENT COSTS ABATEMENT POLICIES ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE EFFECT ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ATMOSPHERE ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS BASELINE EMISSIONS BIOSPHERE CAPITAL STOCKS CAPITAL TURNOVER CARBON CARBON CYCLE CARBON DYNAMICS CARBON EMISSIONS CARBON FLOWS CARBON INTENSITY CARBON PRICES CARBON SAVING TECHNOLOGIES CARBON-CYCLE MODEL CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE CATASTROPHIC DAMAGES CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE DAMAGE CLIMATE CHANGE DAMAGES CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS CLIMATE DAMAGE CLIMATE MITIGATION CLIMATE MODEL CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE POLICIES CLIMATE SCENARIOS CLIMATE SENSITIVITY CLIMATE SYSTEM CLIMATE VARIABILITY CLIMATIC CHANGE CO2 COST OF ABATEMENT COST OF CLIMATE CHANGE COST-BENEFIT COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS COST-BENEFIT FRAMEWORK DEEP OCEAN DEFORESTATION DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DISCOUNT FACTOR DISCOUNT RATE DISCOUNT RATES ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC MODELS ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ECOSYSTEM EMISSION EMISSION ABATEMENT EMISSIONS ABATEMENT EMISSIONS PATHWAYS ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS EXTREME VALUES GHG GHGS GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE VARIATION GLOBAL TEMPERATURE GLOBAL WARMING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE INTEREST RATE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS IPCC LAND-USE CHANGE LEVEL OF EMISSIONS MONETARY VALUES PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION RADIATIVE FORCING RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE RESERVOIRS SCENARIOS SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE SURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE INCREASE TEMPERATURE RANGE TEMPERATURE RISES TEMPERATURE THRESHOLDS TEMPERATURES UTILITY FUNCTION VALUE OF CLIMATE SENSITIVITY WELFARE FUNCTION |
| spellingShingle |
ABATEMENT COST ABATEMENT COSTS ABATEMENT POLICIES ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE EFFECT ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ATMOSPHERE ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS BASELINE EMISSIONS BIOSPHERE CAPITAL STOCKS CAPITAL TURNOVER CARBON CARBON CYCLE CARBON DYNAMICS CARBON EMISSIONS CARBON FLOWS CARBON INTENSITY CARBON PRICES CARBON SAVING TECHNOLOGIES CARBON-CYCLE MODEL CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE CATASTROPHIC DAMAGES CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE DAMAGE CLIMATE CHANGE DAMAGES CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS CLIMATE DAMAGE CLIMATE MITIGATION CLIMATE MODEL CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE POLICIES CLIMATE SCENARIOS CLIMATE SENSITIVITY CLIMATE SYSTEM CLIMATE VARIABILITY CLIMATIC CHANGE CO2 COST OF ABATEMENT COST OF CLIMATE CHANGE COST-BENEFIT COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS COST-BENEFIT FRAMEWORK DEEP OCEAN DEFORESTATION DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DISCOUNT FACTOR DISCOUNT RATE DISCOUNT RATES ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC MODELS ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ECOSYSTEM EMISSION EMISSION ABATEMENT EMISSIONS ABATEMENT EMISSIONS PATHWAYS ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS EXTREME VALUES GHG GHGS GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE VARIATION GLOBAL TEMPERATURE GLOBAL WARMING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE INTEREST RATE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS IPCC LAND-USE CHANGE LEVEL OF EMISSIONS MONETARY VALUES PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION RADIATIVE FORCING RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE RESERVOIRS SCENARIOS SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE SURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE INCREASE TEMPERATURE RANGE TEMPERATURE RISES TEMPERATURE THRESHOLDS TEMPERATURES UTILITY FUNCTION VALUE OF CLIMATE SENSITIVITY WELFARE FUNCTION Dumas, P. Hourcade, J. C. Fabert, B. Perrissin Do We Need A Zero Pure Time Preference or the Risk of Climate Catastrophes to Justify A 2°C Global Warming Target? |
| geographic_facet |
The World Region The World Region |
| relation |
Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5392 |
| description |
This paper confronts the wide political
support for the 2C objective of global increase in
temperature, reaffirmed in Copenhagen, with the consistent
set of hypotheses on which it relies. It explains why
neither an almost zero pure time preference nor concerns
about catastrophic damages in case of uncontrolled global
warming are prerequisites for policy decisions preserving
the possibility of meeting a 2C target. It rests on an
optimal stochastic control model balancing the costs and
benefits of climate policies resolved sequentially in order
to account for the arrival of new information (the RESPONSE
model). This model describes the optimal abatement pathways
for 2,304 worldviews, combining hypotheses about growth
rates, baseline emissions, abatement costs, pure time
preference, damages, and climate sensitivity. It shows that
26 percent of the worldviews selecting the 2C target are not
characterized by one of the extreme assumptions about pure
time preference or climate change damages. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Dumas, P. Hourcade, J. C. Fabert, B. Perrissin |
| author_facet |
Dumas, P. Hourcade, J. C. Fabert, B. Perrissin |
| author_sort |
Dumas, P. |
| title |
Do We Need A Zero Pure Time Preference or the Risk of Climate Catastrophes to Justify A 2°C Global Warming Target? |
| title_short |
Do We Need A Zero Pure Time Preference or the Risk of Climate Catastrophes to Justify A 2°C Global Warming Target? |
| title_full |
Do We Need A Zero Pure Time Preference or the Risk of Climate Catastrophes to Justify A 2°C Global Warming Target? |
| title_fullStr |
Do We Need A Zero Pure Time Preference or the Risk of Climate Catastrophes to Justify A 2°C Global Warming Target? |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Do We Need A Zero Pure Time Preference or the Risk of Climate Catastrophes to Justify A 2°C Global Warming Target? |
| title_sort |
do we need a zero pure time preference or the risk of climate catastrophes to justify a 2°c global warming target? |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20100730104858 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3876 |
| _version_ |
1764388792493408256 |