Unpleasant Surprises : Sovereign Default Determinants and Prospects

This paper uses model averaging techniques to identify robust predictors of sovereign default episodes on a pooled database for 46 emerging economies over the period 1980-2004. Sovereign default episodes are defined according to Standard & Poor...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Bandiera, Luca, Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo, Vincelette, Gallina A.
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	2012
Subjects:	AVERAGING BENCHMARK BOND BUFFER CAPITAL CONTROL CHECKS CHOICE CONTROL VARIABLES CORRUPTION CURRENCY CURRENCY CRISES CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS DEBT DEBT ACCUMULATION DEBT BURDEN DEBT CRISES DEBT CRISIS DEBT DEFAULT DEBT DEFAULTS DEBT INTOLERANCE DEBT LEVEL DEBT LEVELS DEBT MANAGEMENT DEBT MANAGERS DEBT MARKETS DEBT PORTFOLIO DEBT RATIOS DEBT SERVICE DEBT SERVICE PROBLEMS DEBT SERVICE TO EXPORT DEBT SERVICING DEBT SUSTAINABILITY DEFAULT PROBABILITIES DEFAULT PROBABILITY DEFAULT RISK DEFAULT RISKS DEFICIT DEPENDENT DEPENDENT VARIABLE DEPRECIATION DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DISTORTION ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMETRIC MODELS ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMY EMERGING ECONOMIES EMERGING MARKET EMERGING MARKET COUNTRIES EMERGING MARKETS EXCHANGE EXCHANGE CONTROL EXISTING DEBT EXPECTED VALUE EXPLANATORY VARIABLE EXPLANATORY VARIABLES EXPORT GROWTH EXPORT RATIO EXPORTS EXPOSURE EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL DEBT SERVICE EXTERNAL DEMAND EXTERNAL SHOCKS FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL OPENNESS FINANCIAL STABILITY FISCAL BALANCE FISCAL BALANCES FISCAL POLICY FISCAL POSITION FORECASTS FOREIGN DEBT FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN EXCHANGE CONTROL FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES FOREIGN FINANCING FUTURE FUTURE DEBT GDP GDP PER CAPITA GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCE GOOD GROWTH RATE HIGH DEBT HIGHLY INDEBTED COUNTRIES INDEBTED INDEBTED COUNTRIES INDEBTEDNESS INFLATION INFLATION RATE INFLATION RATES INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK INSTRUMENTS INTEREST PAYMENT INTEREST RATE PAYMENTS INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL STATISTICS LEVEL OF DEBT LEVEL OF INDEBTEDNESS LIABILITIES LIQUIDITY LOAN LOANS LONG TERM DEBT LOW DEBT LOWER DEBT MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES MACROECONOMICS MARGINAL COSTS MATURITIES MATURITY MATURITY STRUCTURE MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES MONETARY FUND MONETARY POLICY MONEY OVERVALUATION PENALTIES PORTFOLIO POVERTY POVERTY REDUCTION PROBABILITY OF DEFAULT PROPERTIES PUBLIC DEBT QUOTA REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL EXCHANGE RATE MISALIGNMENT REAL GDP REAL INTEREST REAL INTEREST RATE REPAYMENT RESERVE RESERVES REVENUES RISK OF DEFAULT ROBUSTNESS CHECKS RULE OF LAW SHARE SHORT TERM DEBT SHORT TERM DEBT MARKETS SLOWDOWN SOLVENCY SOVEREIGN DEBT SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISES SOVEREIGN DEFAULT SOVEREIGN DEFAULTS STANDARD DEVIATION STOCK STOCK OF DEBT SURPLUS SURPLUSES TOTAL DEBT TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT TRADE UNCERTAINTY VALUE VALUE OF DEBT WEIGHT WEIGHTS
Online Access:	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20100816162137 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3885