Eliciting Probabilistic Expectations with Visual Aids in Developing Countries : How Sensitive Are Answers to Variations in Elicitation Design?
Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. The authors conducted an experiment in India t...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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2012
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| Online Access: | http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20101025150351 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3940 |
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okr-10986-39402021-04-23T14:02:13Z Eliciting Probabilistic Expectations with Visual Aids in Developing Countries : How Sensitive Are Answers to Variations in Elicitation Design? Delavande, Adeline Giné, Xavier McKenzie, David BEANS BIASES CALCULATION CARROTS CENTRAL TENDENCY COGNITION COMPUTERS DESCRIPTION ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC STATISTICS FUTURE RESEARCH FUTURE STUDIES INCOME LITERACY OBJECTS ORDERING ORDERINGS PRECISION PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY READING RESEARCHER RESEARCHERS SALES SAMPLE SIZE SOCIAL SCIENCES SPREAD STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD DEVIATIONS STANDARD ERRORS TIME SERIES WEB YIELDS Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. The authors conducted an experiment in India that tested the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support (pre-determined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. The results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design. Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves accuracy. 2012-03-19T18:42:33Z 2012-03-19T18:42:33Z 2010-10-01 http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20101025150351 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3940 English Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5458 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper The World Region The World Region |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
BEANS BIASES CALCULATION CARROTS CENTRAL TENDENCY COGNITION COMPUTERS DESCRIPTION ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC STATISTICS FUTURE RESEARCH FUTURE STUDIES INCOME LITERACY OBJECTS ORDERING ORDERINGS PRECISION PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY READING RESEARCHER RESEARCHERS SALES SAMPLE SIZE SOCIAL SCIENCES SPREAD STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD DEVIATIONS STANDARD ERRORS TIME SERIES WEB YIELDS |
| spellingShingle |
BEANS BIASES CALCULATION CARROTS CENTRAL TENDENCY COGNITION COMPUTERS DESCRIPTION ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC STATISTICS FUTURE RESEARCH FUTURE STUDIES INCOME LITERACY OBJECTS ORDERING ORDERINGS PRECISION PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY READING RESEARCHER RESEARCHERS SALES SAMPLE SIZE SOCIAL SCIENCES SPREAD STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD DEVIATIONS STANDARD ERRORS TIME SERIES WEB YIELDS Delavande, Adeline Giné, Xavier McKenzie, David Eliciting Probabilistic Expectations with Visual Aids in Developing Countries : How Sensitive Are Answers to Variations in Elicitation Design? |
| geographic_facet |
The World Region The World Region |
| relation |
Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5458 |
| description |
Eliciting subjective probability
distributions in developing countries is often based on
visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and
intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. The
authors conducted an experiment in India that tested the
sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three
facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans,
the design of the support (pre-determined or self-anchored),
and the ordering of questions. The results show remarkable
robustness to variations in elicitation design.
Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more
beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined
support improves accuracy. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Delavande, Adeline Giné, Xavier McKenzie, David |
| author_facet |
Delavande, Adeline Giné, Xavier McKenzie, David |
| author_sort |
Delavande, Adeline |
| title |
Eliciting Probabilistic Expectations with Visual Aids in Developing Countries : How Sensitive Are Answers to Variations in Elicitation Design? |
| title_short |
Eliciting Probabilistic Expectations with Visual Aids in Developing Countries : How Sensitive Are Answers to Variations in Elicitation Design? |
| title_full |
Eliciting Probabilistic Expectations with Visual Aids in Developing Countries : How Sensitive Are Answers to Variations in Elicitation Design? |
| title_fullStr |
Eliciting Probabilistic Expectations with Visual Aids in Developing Countries : How Sensitive Are Answers to Variations in Elicitation Design? |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Eliciting Probabilistic Expectations with Visual Aids in Developing Countries : How Sensitive Are Answers to Variations in Elicitation Design? |
| title_sort |
eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries : how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design? |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20101025150351 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3940 |
| _version_ |
1764389123272998912 |