Forecasting Migrant Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis

The financial crisis has highlighted the need for forecasts of remittance flows in many developing countries where these flows have proved to be a lifeline to the poor people and the economy. This note describes a simple methodology for forecasting...

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Main Authors:	Mohapatra, Sanket, Ratha, Dilip
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	2012
Subjects:	AMOUNT OF REMITTANCES ASSETS AVERAGE REMITTANCE BANK DEPOSITS BILATERAL FLOWS BLACK MARKET BLACK MARKET EXCHANGE RATES BRAIN DRAIN CAPITA INCOME CAPITAL FLOWS CREDIT RATING CREDIT RATING AGENCIES CREDITWORTHINESS CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT POSITION DATA ON REMITTANCES DEBT DEBT FLOWS DEBT SUSTAINABILITY DEPOSITS DEPRECIATION DESTINATION COUNTRY DETERMINANTS OF REMITTANCES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT IMPACT OF REMITTANCES DIASPORA ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DOWNTURN ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS ECONOMIC GROWTH EMERGING MARKET EMERGING MARKETS EMIGRANT REMITTANCES EQUITY FLOWS EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS EXPENDITURES EXPLANATORY VARIABLES FINANCIAL CRISES FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL FLOWS FINANCIAL SERVICES FIXED SHARE FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FORMAL FINANCIAL SERVICES FUTURE PROSPECTS FUTURE REMITTANCES GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCE GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL EXCHANGE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES HIGH-INCOME COUNTRY HOME COUNTRY HOST COUNTRIES HOST COUNTRY IMPORTANCE OF REMITTANCES INCOME INCOME GROUP INCOME LEVEL INCOME LEVELS INCOMES INFORMAL CHANNELS INSURANCE INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALS INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL BANKS INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL MIGRANT WORKERS INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION INTERNATIONAL REMITTANCES INTERNATIONAL TRADE KEY RISK KEY RISK FACTOR LOCAL CURRENCY LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS MARKET PLAYERS MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MIGRANT REMITTANCES MIGRANTS MIGRATION POLICY MONETARY FUND NATURAL DISASTER NATURAL DISASTERS NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATES NOMINAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT OUTPUT PARALLEL MARKET PORTFOLIO POST-CRISIS PERIOD POVERTY REDUCTION PRIVATE CAPITAL PRIVATE CAPITAL INFLOWS QUOTAS RECIPIENT COUNTRIES RECIPIENT HOUSEHOLDS REMITTANCE REMITTANCE CHANNELS REMITTANCE COSTS REMITTANCE FLOWS REMITTANCE INFLOWS REMITTANCE OUTFLOWS REMITTANCE RECEIPTS REMITTANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT RETURN RETURN MIGRATION RETURNS RISK FACTOR ROLE OF REMITTANCES SAVINGS SEND MONEY SEND REMITTANCES SKILLED MIGRANTS SOVEREIGN RATINGS STOCK DATA STOCKS TOTAL AMOUNT OF REMITTANCES TRANSACTION TRANSACTION COSTS TRANSFER COSTS VALUE OF REMITTANCES VOLATILITY VOLATILITY OF CAPITAL WEIGHTS WORKER REMITTANCES
Online Access:	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20101230132625 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3996

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spelling	okr-10986-39962021-04-23T14:02:14Z Forecasting Migrant Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis Mohapatra, Sanket Ratha, Dilip AMOUNT OF REMITTANCES ASSETS AVERAGE REMITTANCE BANK DEPOSITS BILATERAL FLOWS BLACK MARKET BLACK MARKET EXCHANGE RATES BRAIN DRAIN CAPITA INCOME CAPITAL FLOWS CREDIT RATING CREDIT RATING AGENCIES CREDITWORTHINESS CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT POSITION DATA ON REMITTANCES DEBT DEBT FLOWS DEBT SUSTAINABILITY DEPOSITS DEPRECIATION DESTINATION COUNTRY DETERMINANTS OF REMITTANCES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT IMPACT OF REMITTANCES DIASPORA ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DOWNTURN ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS ECONOMIC GROWTH EMERGING MARKET EMERGING MARKETS EMIGRANT REMITTANCES EQUITY FLOWS EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS EXPENDITURES EXPLANATORY VARIABLES FINANCIAL CRISES FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL FLOWS FINANCIAL SERVICES FIXED SHARE FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FORMAL FINANCIAL SERVICES FUTURE PROSPECTS FUTURE REMITTANCES GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCE GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL EXCHANGE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES HIGH-INCOME COUNTRY HOME COUNTRY HOST COUNTRIES HOST COUNTRY IMPORTANCE OF REMITTANCES INCOME INCOME GROUP INCOME LEVEL INCOME LEVELS INCOMES INFORMAL CHANNELS INSURANCE INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALS INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL BANKS INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL MIGRANT WORKERS INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION INTERNATIONAL REMITTANCES INTERNATIONAL TRADE KEY RISK KEY RISK FACTOR LOCAL CURRENCY LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS MARKET PLAYERS MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MIGRANT REMITTANCES MIGRANTS MIGRATION POLICY MONETARY FUND NATURAL DISASTER NATURAL DISASTERS NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATES NOMINAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT OUTPUT PARALLEL MARKET PORTFOLIO POST-CRISIS PERIOD POVERTY REDUCTION PRIVATE CAPITAL PRIVATE CAPITAL INFLOWS QUOTAS RECIPIENT COUNTRIES RECIPIENT HOUSEHOLDS REMITTANCE REMITTANCE CHANNELS REMITTANCE COSTS REMITTANCE FLOWS REMITTANCE INFLOWS REMITTANCE OUTFLOWS REMITTANCE RECEIPTS REMITTANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT RETURN RETURN MIGRATION RETURNS RISK FACTOR ROLE OF REMITTANCES SAVINGS SEND MONEY SEND REMITTANCES SKILLED MIGRANTS SOVEREIGN RATINGS STOCK DATA STOCKS TOTAL AMOUNT OF REMITTANCES TRANSACTION TRANSACTION COSTS TRANSFER COSTS VALUE OF REMITTANCES VOLATILITY VOLATILITY OF CAPITAL WEIGHTS WORKER REMITTANCES The financial crisis has highlighted the need for forecasts of remittance flows in many developing countries where these flows have proved to be a lifeline to the poor people and the economy. This note describes a simple methodology for forecasting country-level remittance flows in a manner consistent with the medium-term outlook for the global economy. Remittances are assumed to depend on bilateral migration stocks and income levels in the host country and the origin country. Changes in remittance costs, shifts in remittance channels, global exchange rate movements, and unpredictable immigration controls in the migrant-destination countries pose risks to the forecasts. Much remains to be done to improve the forecast methodology, data on bilateral flows, and high-frequency monitoring of migration and remittance flows. 2012-03-19T18:43:33Z 2012-03-19T18:43:33Z 2010-12-01 http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20101230132625 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3996 English Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5512 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper The World Region The World Region
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	AMOUNT OF REMITTANCES ASSETS AVERAGE REMITTANCE BANK DEPOSITS BILATERAL FLOWS BLACK MARKET BLACK MARKET EXCHANGE RATES BRAIN DRAIN CAPITA INCOME CAPITAL FLOWS CREDIT RATING CREDIT RATING AGENCIES CREDITWORTHINESS CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT POSITION DATA ON REMITTANCES DEBT DEBT FLOWS DEBT SUSTAINABILITY DEPOSITS DEPRECIATION DESTINATION COUNTRY DETERMINANTS OF REMITTANCES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT IMPACT OF REMITTANCES DIASPORA ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DOWNTURN ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS ECONOMIC GROWTH EMERGING MARKET EMERGING MARKETS EMIGRANT REMITTANCES EQUITY FLOWS EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS EXPENDITURES EXPLANATORY VARIABLES FINANCIAL CRISES FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL FLOWS FINANCIAL SERVICES FIXED SHARE FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FORMAL FINANCIAL SERVICES FUTURE PROSPECTS FUTURE REMITTANCES GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCE GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL EXCHANGE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES HIGH-INCOME COUNTRY HOME COUNTRY HOST COUNTRIES HOST COUNTRY IMPORTANCE OF REMITTANCES INCOME INCOME GROUP INCOME LEVEL INCOME LEVELS INCOMES INFORMAL CHANNELS INSURANCE INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALS INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL BANKS INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL MIGRANT WORKERS INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION INTERNATIONAL REMITTANCES INTERNATIONAL TRADE KEY RISK KEY RISK FACTOR LOCAL CURRENCY LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS MARKET PLAYERS MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MIGRANT REMITTANCES MIGRANTS MIGRATION POLICY MONETARY FUND NATURAL DISASTER NATURAL DISASTERS NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATES NOMINAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT OUTPUT PARALLEL MARKET PORTFOLIO POST-CRISIS PERIOD POVERTY REDUCTION PRIVATE CAPITAL PRIVATE CAPITAL INFLOWS QUOTAS RECIPIENT COUNTRIES RECIPIENT HOUSEHOLDS REMITTANCE REMITTANCE CHANNELS REMITTANCE COSTS REMITTANCE FLOWS REMITTANCE INFLOWS REMITTANCE OUTFLOWS REMITTANCE RECEIPTS REMITTANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT RETURN RETURN MIGRATION RETURNS RISK FACTOR ROLE OF REMITTANCES SAVINGS SEND MONEY SEND REMITTANCES SKILLED MIGRANTS SOVEREIGN RATINGS STOCK DATA STOCKS TOTAL AMOUNT OF REMITTANCES TRANSACTION TRANSACTION COSTS TRANSFER COSTS VALUE OF REMITTANCES VOLATILITY VOLATILITY OF CAPITAL WEIGHTS WORKER REMITTANCES
spellingShingle	AMOUNT OF REMITTANCES ASSETS AVERAGE REMITTANCE BANK DEPOSITS BILATERAL FLOWS BLACK MARKET BLACK MARKET EXCHANGE RATES BRAIN DRAIN CAPITA INCOME CAPITAL FLOWS CREDIT RATING CREDIT RATING AGENCIES CREDITWORTHINESS CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT POSITION DATA ON REMITTANCES DEBT DEBT FLOWS DEBT SUSTAINABILITY DEPOSITS DEPRECIATION DESTINATION COUNTRY DETERMINANTS OF REMITTANCES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT IMPACT OF REMITTANCES DIASPORA ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DOWNTURN ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS ECONOMIC GROWTH EMERGING MARKET EMERGING MARKETS EMIGRANT REMITTANCES EQUITY FLOWS EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS EXPENDITURES EXPLANATORY VARIABLES FINANCIAL CRISES FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL FLOWS FINANCIAL SERVICES FIXED SHARE FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FORMAL FINANCIAL SERVICES FUTURE PROSPECTS FUTURE REMITTANCES GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCE GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL EXCHANGE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES HIGH-INCOME COUNTRY HOME COUNTRY HOST COUNTRIES HOST COUNTRY IMPORTANCE OF REMITTANCES INCOME INCOME GROUP INCOME LEVEL INCOME LEVELS INCOMES INFORMAL CHANNELS INSURANCE INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALS INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL BANKS INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL MIGRANT WORKERS INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION INTERNATIONAL REMITTANCES INTERNATIONAL TRADE KEY RISK KEY RISK FACTOR LOCAL CURRENCY LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS MARKET PLAYERS MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MIGRANT REMITTANCES MIGRANTS MIGRATION POLICY MONETARY FUND NATURAL DISASTER NATURAL DISASTERS NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATES NOMINAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT OUTPUT PARALLEL MARKET PORTFOLIO POST-CRISIS PERIOD POVERTY REDUCTION PRIVATE CAPITAL PRIVATE CAPITAL INFLOWS QUOTAS RECIPIENT COUNTRIES RECIPIENT HOUSEHOLDS REMITTANCE REMITTANCE CHANNELS REMITTANCE COSTS REMITTANCE FLOWS REMITTANCE INFLOWS REMITTANCE OUTFLOWS REMITTANCE RECEIPTS REMITTANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT RETURN RETURN MIGRATION RETURNS RISK FACTOR ROLE OF REMITTANCES SAVINGS SEND MONEY SEND REMITTANCES SKILLED MIGRANTS SOVEREIGN RATINGS STOCK DATA STOCKS TOTAL AMOUNT OF REMITTANCES TRANSACTION TRANSACTION COSTS TRANSFER COSTS VALUE OF REMITTANCES VOLATILITY VOLATILITY OF CAPITAL WEIGHTS WORKER REMITTANCES Mohapatra, Sanket Ratha, Dilip Forecasting Migrant Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis
geographic_facet	The World Region The World Region
relation	Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5512
description	The financial crisis has highlighted the need for forecasts of remittance flows in many developing countries where these flows have proved to be a lifeline to the poor people and the economy. This note describes a simple methodology for forecasting country-level remittance flows in a manner consistent with the medium-term outlook for the global economy. Remittances are assumed to depend on bilateral migration stocks and income levels in the host country and the origin country. Changes in remittance costs, shifts in remittance channels, global exchange rate movements, and unpredictable immigration controls in the migrant-destination countries pose risks to the forecasts. Much remains to be done to improve the forecast methodology, data on bilateral flows, and high-frequency monitoring of migration and remittance flows.
format	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author	Mohapatra, Sanket Ratha, Dilip
author_facet	Mohapatra, Sanket Ratha, Dilip
author_sort	Mohapatra, Sanket
title	Forecasting Migrant Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis
title_short	Forecasting Migrant Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis
title_full	Forecasting Migrant Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis
title_fullStr	Forecasting Migrant Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis
title_full_unstemmed	Forecasting Migrant Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis
title_sort	forecasting migrant remittances during the global financial crisis
publishDate	2012
url	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20101230132625 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3996
_version_	1764389402113474560

Forecasting Migrant Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis

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