Energy Demand Models for Policy Formulation : A Comparative Study of Energy Demand Models
This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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2012
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| Online Access: | http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090317093816 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4061 |
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okr-10986-4061 |
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| recordtype |
oai_dc |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
AFFORDABLE ENERGY AGGREGATE DEMAND AGGREGATE ENERGY DEMAND AGGREGATE LEVEL AGRICULTURE ALLOCATION MODEL ALTERNATIVE USES ANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOK APPLIANCE STOCKS APPROACH AVAILABILITY BIOMASS CALORIFIC CONTENT CAPACITY SHORTAGES CLEAN ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATIC CONDITIONS COMMERCIAL ENERGY COMMERCIAL ENERGY DEMAND CONSUMER DEMAND CONSUMERS CONSUMPTION INCREASES COOKING COST OF ENERGY CRUDE OIL DECISION MAKING DEMAND CATEGORY DEMAND CURVE DEMAND ELASTICITY DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY DEMAND FOR ENERGY DEMAND FOR ENERGY PRODUCTS DEMAND FOR ENERGY SERVICES ECONOMETRIC ANALYSES ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMETRIC MODELS ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS ECONOMIC BARRIERS ECONOMIC FORECASTS ECONOMIC INTEGRATION ECONOMIC MODELS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMIC THEORIES ELASTICITY OF DEMAND ELECTRICITY ELECTRICITY DEMAND ELECTRICITY GENERATION EMPLOYMENT END-USE END-USE ENERGY END-USES ENERGY ANALYSIS ENERGY BALANCE ENERGY COMPANIES ENERGY CONVERSION ENERGY DECISION ENERGY DEMAND ENERGY DEMAND ANALYSIS ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENERGY FORM ENERGY INDUSTRY ENERGY INPUT ENERGY INTENSITY ENERGY MARKETS ENERGY MODEL ENERGY MODELING ENERGY MODELS ENERGY NEEDS ENERGY OUTLOOK ENERGY PLANNING ENERGY POLICIES ENERGY POLICY ENERGY POLICY ANALYSIS ENERGY PRICE ENERGY PRICES ENERGY PROBLEM ENERGY PRODUCTS ENERGY REQUIREMENT ENERGY RESOURCES ENERGY SOURCE ENERGY SUPPLY ENERGY SYSTEMS ENERGY USE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS EXTERNALITIES FACTOR DEMAND FINAL ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING MODELS FORECASTING TECHNIQUES FORECASTS FOSSIL FOSSIL FUELS FREIGHT TRANSPORT FUEL FUEL DEMAND FUEL PRICE FUEL SUBSTITUTION FUNCTIONAL FORMS FUTURE ENERGY DEMAND GDP GNP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT GROSS OUTPUT GROWTH RATE INCOME INCOME ELASTICITY OF DEMAND INCOMPLETE MARKETS INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITIES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY INVENTORY KEROSENE MARGINAL UTILITY NATIONAL INCOME OIL OIL CRISIS OIL DEMAND OIL PRICE OPTIMIZATION PER CAPITA ENERGY POLLUTION POWER POWER SECTOR PRICE OF ENERGY PRIMARY ENERGY PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND PURCHASING POWER REAL INCOME RENEWABLE ENERGIES RENEWABLE ENERGY RESIDENTIAL DEMAND RURAL ENERGY SOURCE OF ENERGY STATISTICAL ANALYSIS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE SYSTEMS ANALYSIS TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION TOTAL ENERGY DEMAND TOTAL OUTPUT TRADITIONAL FUELS UNEMPLOYMENT UTILITY FUNCTION UTILITY MAXIMIZATION VALUATION VALUE JUDGMENTS VALUE OF OUTPUT VEHICLES WORLD ENERGY WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL |
| spellingShingle |
AFFORDABLE ENERGY AGGREGATE DEMAND AGGREGATE ENERGY DEMAND AGGREGATE LEVEL AGRICULTURE ALLOCATION MODEL ALTERNATIVE USES ANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOK APPLIANCE STOCKS APPROACH AVAILABILITY BIOMASS CALORIFIC CONTENT CAPACITY SHORTAGES CLEAN ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATIC CONDITIONS COMMERCIAL ENERGY COMMERCIAL ENERGY DEMAND CONSUMER DEMAND CONSUMERS CONSUMPTION INCREASES COOKING COST OF ENERGY CRUDE OIL DECISION MAKING DEMAND CATEGORY DEMAND CURVE DEMAND ELASTICITY DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY DEMAND FOR ENERGY DEMAND FOR ENERGY PRODUCTS DEMAND FOR ENERGY SERVICES ECONOMETRIC ANALYSES ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMETRIC MODELS ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS ECONOMIC BARRIERS ECONOMIC FORECASTS ECONOMIC INTEGRATION ECONOMIC MODELS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMIC THEORIES ELASTICITY OF DEMAND ELECTRICITY ELECTRICITY DEMAND ELECTRICITY GENERATION EMPLOYMENT END-USE END-USE ENERGY END-USES ENERGY ANALYSIS ENERGY BALANCE ENERGY COMPANIES ENERGY CONVERSION ENERGY DECISION ENERGY DEMAND ENERGY DEMAND ANALYSIS ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENERGY FORM ENERGY INDUSTRY ENERGY INPUT ENERGY INTENSITY ENERGY MARKETS ENERGY MODEL ENERGY MODELING ENERGY MODELS ENERGY NEEDS ENERGY OUTLOOK ENERGY PLANNING ENERGY POLICIES ENERGY POLICY ENERGY POLICY ANALYSIS ENERGY PRICE ENERGY PRICES ENERGY PROBLEM ENERGY PRODUCTS ENERGY REQUIREMENT ENERGY RESOURCES ENERGY SOURCE ENERGY SUPPLY ENERGY SYSTEMS ENERGY USE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS EXTERNALITIES FACTOR DEMAND FINAL ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING MODELS FORECASTING TECHNIQUES FORECASTS FOSSIL FOSSIL FUELS FREIGHT TRANSPORT FUEL FUEL DEMAND FUEL PRICE FUEL SUBSTITUTION FUNCTIONAL FORMS FUTURE ENERGY DEMAND GDP GNP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT GROSS OUTPUT GROWTH RATE INCOME INCOME ELASTICITY OF DEMAND INCOMPLETE MARKETS INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITIES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY INVENTORY KEROSENE MARGINAL UTILITY NATIONAL INCOME OIL OIL CRISIS OIL DEMAND OIL PRICE OPTIMIZATION PER CAPITA ENERGY POLLUTION POWER POWER SECTOR PRICE OF ENERGY PRIMARY ENERGY PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND PURCHASING POWER REAL INCOME RENEWABLE ENERGIES RENEWABLE ENERGY RESIDENTIAL DEMAND RURAL ENERGY SOURCE OF ENERGY STATISTICAL ANALYSIS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE SYSTEMS ANALYSIS TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION TOTAL ENERGY DEMAND TOTAL OUTPUT TRADITIONAL FUELS UNEMPLOYMENT UTILITY FUNCTION UTILITY MAXIMIZATION VALUATION VALUE JUDGMENTS VALUE OF OUTPUT VEHICLES WORLD ENERGY WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. Timilsina, Govinda R. Energy Demand Models for Policy Formulation : A Comparative Study of Energy Demand Models |
| geographic_facet |
The World Region The World Region |
| relation |
Paper is funded by the Knowledge for Change
Program (KCP),Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 4866 |
| description |
This paper critically reviews existing
energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the
methodological diversities and developments over the past
four decades in order to investigate whether the existing
energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the
specific features of developing countries. The study finds
that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use
accounting, are used in the existing energy demand models.
Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the
early 1970s, key issues such as the poor-rich and
urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources, and
differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy
commodities are often poorly reflected in these models.
While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed
sector representations produce more realistic projections
compared with the econometric models, they still suffer from
huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries.
Development and maintenance of more detailed energy
databases, further development of models to better reflect
developing country context, and institutionalizing the
modeling capacity in developing countries are the key
requirements for energy demand modeling to deliver richer
and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. Timilsina, Govinda R. |
| author_facet |
Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. Timilsina, Govinda R. |
| author_sort |
Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. |
| title |
Energy Demand Models for Policy Formulation : A Comparative Study of Energy Demand Models |
| title_short |
Energy Demand Models for Policy Formulation : A Comparative Study of Energy Demand Models |
| title_full |
Energy Demand Models for Policy Formulation : A Comparative Study of Energy Demand Models |
| title_fullStr |
Energy Demand Models for Policy Formulation : A Comparative Study of Energy Demand Models |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Energy Demand Models for Policy Formulation : A Comparative Study of Energy Demand Models |
| title_sort |
energy demand models for policy formulation : a comparative study of energy demand models |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090317093816 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4061 |
| _version_ |
1764389740348440576 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-40612021-04-23T14:02:15Z Energy Demand Models for Policy Formulation : A Comparative Study of Energy Demand Models Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. Timilsina, Govinda R. AFFORDABLE ENERGY AGGREGATE DEMAND AGGREGATE ENERGY DEMAND AGGREGATE LEVEL AGRICULTURE ALLOCATION MODEL ALTERNATIVE USES ANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOK APPLIANCE STOCKS APPROACH AVAILABILITY BIOMASS CALORIFIC CONTENT CAPACITY SHORTAGES CLEAN ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATIC CONDITIONS COMMERCIAL ENERGY COMMERCIAL ENERGY DEMAND CONSUMER DEMAND CONSUMERS CONSUMPTION INCREASES COOKING COST OF ENERGY CRUDE OIL DECISION MAKING DEMAND CATEGORY DEMAND CURVE DEMAND ELASTICITY DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY DEMAND FOR ENERGY DEMAND FOR ENERGY PRODUCTS DEMAND FOR ENERGY SERVICES ECONOMETRIC ANALYSES ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMETRIC MODELS ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS ECONOMIC BARRIERS ECONOMIC FORECASTS ECONOMIC INTEGRATION ECONOMIC MODELS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMIC THEORIES ELASTICITY OF DEMAND ELECTRICITY ELECTRICITY DEMAND ELECTRICITY GENERATION EMPLOYMENT END-USE END-USE ENERGY END-USES ENERGY ANALYSIS ENERGY BALANCE ENERGY COMPANIES ENERGY CONVERSION ENERGY DECISION ENERGY DEMAND ENERGY DEMAND ANALYSIS ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENERGY FORM ENERGY INDUSTRY ENERGY INPUT ENERGY INTENSITY ENERGY MARKETS ENERGY MODEL ENERGY MODELING ENERGY MODELS ENERGY NEEDS ENERGY OUTLOOK ENERGY PLANNING ENERGY POLICIES ENERGY POLICY ENERGY POLICY ANALYSIS ENERGY PRICE ENERGY PRICES ENERGY PROBLEM ENERGY PRODUCTS ENERGY REQUIREMENT ENERGY RESOURCES ENERGY SOURCE ENERGY SUPPLY ENERGY SYSTEMS ENERGY USE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS EXTERNALITIES FACTOR DEMAND FINAL ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING MODELS FORECASTING TECHNIQUES FORECASTS FOSSIL FOSSIL FUELS FREIGHT TRANSPORT FUEL FUEL DEMAND FUEL PRICE FUEL SUBSTITUTION FUNCTIONAL FORMS FUTURE ENERGY DEMAND GDP GNP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT GROSS OUTPUT GROWTH RATE INCOME INCOME ELASTICITY OF DEMAND INCOMPLETE MARKETS INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITIES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY INVENTORY KEROSENE MARGINAL UTILITY NATIONAL INCOME OIL OIL CRISIS OIL DEMAND OIL PRICE OPTIMIZATION PER CAPITA ENERGY POLLUTION POWER POWER SECTOR PRICE OF ENERGY PRIMARY ENERGY PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND PURCHASING POWER REAL INCOME RENEWABLE ENERGIES RENEWABLE ENERGY RESIDENTIAL DEMAND RURAL ENERGY SOURCE OF ENERGY STATISTICAL ANALYSIS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE SYSTEMS ANALYSIS TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION TOTAL ENERGY DEMAND TOTAL OUTPUT TRADITIONAL FUELS UNEMPLOYMENT UTILITY FUNCTION UTILITY MAXIMIZATION VALUATION VALUE JUDGMENTS VALUE OF OUTPUT VEHICLES WORLD ENERGY WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early 1970s, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources, and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sector representations produce more realistic projections compared with the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context, and institutionalizing the modeling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modeling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries. 2012-03-19T19:09:16Z 2012-03-19T19:09:16Z 2009-03-01 http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090317093816 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4061 English Paper is funded by the Knowledge for Change Program (KCP),Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 4866 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper The World Region The World Region |