AIDS and Dualism : Ethiopia’s Burden under Rational Expectations

An AIDS epidemic threatens Ethiopia with a long wave of premature adult mortality, and thus with an enduring setback to capital formation and economic growth. The authors develop a two-sector model with three overlapping generations and intersector...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Bell, Clive, Koukoumelis, Anastasios
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	2012
Subjects:	ADULT ILLITERACY ADVERSE IMPACT AGGREGATE COSTS AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AGRICULTURE AIDS EPIDEMIC AIDS PATIENTS ALGORITHM AVERAGE GROWTH BASE YEAR BENCHMARK BEQUESTS BRAIN DRAIN BUDGETARY SUPPORT BULLETIN CALCULATION CALCULATIONS CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL MARKETS CAPITAL STOCK CHILD LABOR CHILD LABOUR CHILD MORTALITY COMPLICATIONS CONDOM CONDOM PROMOTION CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE CONTRIBUTION CONTRIBUTIONS COSTS OF AIDS CURRENT INCOME DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION DEPENDENT CHILDREN DEPRECIATION DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES DIMINISHING RETURNS DISABILITY DISCOUNT RATE DUAL ECONOMY EARLY DEATH ECONOMIC AGENTS ECONOMIC COSTS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC HISTORY ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC REFORM EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTS ELASTICITY ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ENDOWMENTS ENROLLMENT ENROLLMENTS ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS EXCESS MORTALITY EXCHANGE RATE EXOGENOUS VARIABLES EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXTENDED FAMILY FACT SHEET FAMILIES FAMILY FARM FAMILY MEMBERS FAMILY STRUCTURE FARMERS FERTILITY LEVELS FERTILITY RATES FEWER CHILDREN FORECASTS FORM OF INVESTMENT FORMAL EDUCATION GDP GDP PER CAPITA GENDER GENDER INEQUALITY GROWTH RATE HEALTH CARE HEALTH CARE COSTS HEALTH-SECTOR HIV HOUSEHOLD POVERTY HOUSEHOLDS HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMPACT OF AIDS INCOME INFANT INFECTIONS INSURANCE INTERNAL MIGRATION INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY INVENTORY INVESTMENT IN EDUCATION LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LABOR SUPPLY LABOUR MARKET LEVEL OF EDUCATION LEVEL OF FERTILITY LEVELS OF CONSUMPTION LEVELS OF EDUCATION LEVELS OF FERTILITY LEVELS OF MORTALITY LIFE EXPECTANCY LIFETIME LIVING CONDITIONS LIVING STANDARDS LOWER FERTILITY MARGINAL PRODUCTIVITY MARKET INFORMATION MEDICAL CARE MIGRANTS MIGRATION FLOWS MINISTRY OF HEALTH MORTALITY RATE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT NATURAL RESOURCE NUMBER OF CHILDREN NUMBER OF MIGRANTS OLD AGE OPPORTUNITY COSTS OPTIMIZATION ORPHANS PANDEMIC PARENTAL CARE PER CAPITA INCOMES PHYSICAL CAPITAL POLICY RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER POPULATION DIVISION POPULATION GROWTH POPULATION MOVEMENTS POPULATION PRESSURE POPULATION RESEARCH POPULATION SIZE POPULATION STRUCTURE POPULATION STRUCTURES PREMATURE ADULT MORTALITY PREMATURE DEATH PRESENT VALUE PRESENT VALUES PREVENTION INTERVENTIONS PRIMARY EDUCATION PRIMARY SCHOOL PRIMARY SCHOOL AGE PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY PRODUCTIVITY PROFITABILITY PROGRESS PUBLIC GOOD PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC POLICY RATE OF GROWTH RATE OF TRANSMISSION RESPECT RURAL AREAS RURAL POPULATION SAFE BLOOD SUPPLY SAVINGS SAVINGS RATE SCHOOL ATTENDANCE SCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN SECONDARY EDUCATION SEX SEX WORKERS SEXUALLY ACTIVE SEXUALLY ACTIVE POPULATION SMALLHOLDERS SOCIAL AFFAIRS SOCIAL SCIENCE SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH SOCIAL WELFARE SOIL EROSION SOURCES OF INCOME STOCKS SURVIVAL RATE TAX BURDEN TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY UNEMPLOYED UNEMPLOYMENT UNION UNIONS URBAN AREAS URBAN DEVELOPMENT URBAN MIGRATION URBAN POPULATION URBANIZATION UTILITY FUNCTION VALUABLE VALUE ADDED VICTIMS VILLAGE VILLAGES WAGE WAGES WORKING AGE WORLD POPULATION YOUNG ADULT YOUNG ADULTHOOD YOUNG ADULTS YOUNG CHILDREN YOUNG COUPLE
Online Access:	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090429102946 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4110

Description
Summary:	An AIDS epidemic threatens Ethiopia with a long wave of premature adult mortality, and thus with an enduring setback to capital formation and economic growth. The authors develop a two-sector model with three overlapping generations and intersectorally mobile labor, in which young adults allocate resources under rational expectations. They calibrate the model to the demographic and economic data, and perform simulations for the period ending in 2100 under alternative assumptions about mortality with and without the epidemic. Although the epidemic does not bring about a catastrophic economic collapse, which is hardly possible in view of Ethiopia's poverty and high background adult mortality, it does cause a permanent, downward displacement of the path of output per head, amounting to 10 percent in 2100. An externally funded program to combat the disease is socially very profitable.

AIDS and Dualism : Ethiopia’s Burden under Rational Expectations

Similar Items