AIDS and Dualism : Ethiopia’s Burden under Rational Expectations

An AIDS epidemic threatens Ethiopia with a long wave of premature adult mortality, and thus with an enduring setback to capital formation and economic growth. The authors develop a two-sector model with three overlapping generations and intersector...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Bell, Clive, Koukoumelis, Anastasios
Format: Policy Research Working Paper
Language:English
Published: 2012
Subjects:
GDP
HIV
SEX
Online Access:http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090429102946
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4110
id okr-10986-4110
recordtype oai_dc
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
topic ADULT ILLITERACY
ADVERSE IMPACT
AGGREGATE COSTS
AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES
AGRICULTURE
AIDS EPIDEMIC
AIDS PATIENTS
ALGORITHM
AVERAGE GROWTH
BASE YEAR
BENCHMARK
BEQUESTS
BRAIN DRAIN
BUDGETARY SUPPORT
BULLETIN
CALCULATION
CALCULATIONS
CAPITAL ACCUMULATION
CAPITAL FORMATION
CAPITAL MARKETS
CAPITAL STOCK
CHILD LABOR
CHILD LABOUR
CHILD MORTALITY
COMPLICATIONS
CONDOM
CONDOM PROMOTION
CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE
CONTRIBUTION
CONTRIBUTIONS
COSTS OF AIDS
CURRENT INCOME
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
DEPENDENT CHILDREN
DEPRECIATION
DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
DIMINISHING RETURNS
DISABILITY
DISCOUNT RATE
DUAL ECONOMY
EARLY DEATH
ECONOMIC AGENTS
ECONOMIC COSTS
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMIC HISTORY
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
ECONOMIC REFORM
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTS
ELASTICITY
ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES
ENDOWMENTS
ENROLLMENT
ENROLLMENTS
ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS
EXCESS MORTALITY
EXCHANGE RATE
EXOGENOUS VARIABLES
EXPENDITURE
EXPENDITURES
EXTENDED FAMILY
FACT SHEET
FAMILIES
FAMILY FARM
FAMILY MEMBERS
FAMILY STRUCTURE
FARMERS
FERTILITY LEVELS
FERTILITY RATES
FEWER CHILDREN
FORECASTS
FORM OF INVESTMENT
FORMAL EDUCATION
GDP
GDP PER CAPITA
GENDER
GENDER INEQUALITY
GROWTH RATE
HEALTH CARE
HEALTH CARE COSTS
HEALTH-SECTOR
HIV
HOUSEHOLD POVERTY
HOUSEHOLDS
HUMAN CAPITAL
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
IMPACT OF AIDS
INCOME
INFANT
INFECTIONS
INSURANCE
INTERNAL MIGRATION
INTERNATIONAL BANK
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT IN EDUCATION
LABOR FORCE
LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION
LABOR MARKET
LABOR MARKETS
LABOR SUPPLY
LABOUR MARKET
LEVEL OF EDUCATION
LEVEL OF FERTILITY
LEVELS OF CONSUMPTION
LEVELS OF EDUCATION
LEVELS OF FERTILITY
LEVELS OF MORTALITY
LIFE EXPECTANCY
LIFETIME
LIVING CONDITIONS
LIVING STANDARDS
LOWER FERTILITY
MARGINAL PRODUCTIVITY
MARKET INFORMATION
MEDICAL CARE
MIGRANTS
MIGRATION FLOWS
MINISTRY OF HEALTH
MORTALITY RATE
NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
NATURAL RESOURCE
NUMBER OF CHILDREN
NUMBER OF MIGRANTS
OLD AGE
OPPORTUNITY COSTS
OPTIMIZATION
ORPHANS
PANDEMIC
PARENTAL CARE
PER CAPITA INCOMES
PHYSICAL CAPITAL
POLICY RESEARCH
POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER
POPULATION DIVISION
POPULATION GROWTH
POPULATION MOVEMENTS
POPULATION PRESSURE
POPULATION RESEARCH
POPULATION SIZE
POPULATION STRUCTURE
POPULATION STRUCTURES
PREMATURE ADULT MORTALITY
PREMATURE DEATH
PRESENT VALUE
PRESENT VALUES
PREVENTION INTERVENTIONS
PRIMARY EDUCATION
PRIMARY SCHOOL
PRIMARY SCHOOL AGE
PROBABILITIES
PROBABILITY
PRODUCTIVITY
PROFITABILITY
PROGRESS
PUBLIC GOOD
PUBLIC INVESTMENT
PUBLIC POLICY
RATE OF GROWTH
RATE OF TRANSMISSION
RESPECT
RURAL AREAS
RURAL POPULATION
SAFE BLOOD SUPPLY
SAVINGS
SAVINGS RATE
SCHOOL ATTENDANCE
SCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN
SECONDARY EDUCATION
SEX
SEX WORKERS
SEXUALLY ACTIVE
SEXUALLY ACTIVE POPULATION
SMALLHOLDERS
SOCIAL AFFAIRS
SOCIAL SCIENCE
SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH
SOCIAL WELFARE
SOIL EROSION
SOURCES OF INCOME
STOCKS
SURVIVAL RATE
TAX BURDEN
TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
UNEMPLOYED
UNEMPLOYMENT
UNION
UNIONS
URBAN AREAS
URBAN DEVELOPMENT
URBAN MIGRATION
URBAN POPULATION
URBANIZATION
UTILITY FUNCTION
VALUABLE
VALUE ADDED
VICTIMS
VILLAGE
VILLAGES
WAGE
WAGES
WORKING AGE
WORLD POPULATION
YOUNG ADULT
YOUNG ADULTHOOD
YOUNG ADULTS
YOUNG CHILDREN
YOUNG COUPLE
spellingShingle ADULT ILLITERACY
ADVERSE IMPACT
AGGREGATE COSTS
AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES
AGRICULTURE
AIDS EPIDEMIC
AIDS PATIENTS
ALGORITHM
AVERAGE GROWTH
BASE YEAR
BENCHMARK
BEQUESTS
BRAIN DRAIN
BUDGETARY SUPPORT
BULLETIN
CALCULATION
CALCULATIONS
CAPITAL ACCUMULATION
CAPITAL FORMATION
CAPITAL MARKETS
CAPITAL STOCK
CHILD LABOR
CHILD LABOUR
CHILD MORTALITY
COMPLICATIONS
CONDOM
CONDOM PROMOTION
CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE
CONTRIBUTION
CONTRIBUTIONS
COSTS OF AIDS
CURRENT INCOME
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
DEPENDENT CHILDREN
DEPRECIATION
DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
DIMINISHING RETURNS
DISABILITY
DISCOUNT RATE
DUAL ECONOMY
EARLY DEATH
ECONOMIC AGENTS
ECONOMIC COSTS
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMIC HISTORY
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
ECONOMIC REFORM
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTS
ELASTICITY
ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES
ENDOWMENTS
ENROLLMENT
ENROLLMENTS
ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS
EXCESS MORTALITY
EXCHANGE RATE
EXOGENOUS VARIABLES
EXPENDITURE
EXPENDITURES
EXTENDED FAMILY
FACT SHEET
FAMILIES
FAMILY FARM
FAMILY MEMBERS
FAMILY STRUCTURE
FARMERS
FERTILITY LEVELS
FERTILITY RATES
FEWER CHILDREN
FORECASTS
FORM OF INVESTMENT
FORMAL EDUCATION
GDP
GDP PER CAPITA
GENDER
GENDER INEQUALITY
GROWTH RATE
HEALTH CARE
HEALTH CARE COSTS
HEALTH-SECTOR
HIV
HOUSEHOLD POVERTY
HOUSEHOLDS
HUMAN CAPITAL
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
IMPACT OF AIDS
INCOME
INFANT
INFECTIONS
INSURANCE
INTERNAL MIGRATION
INTERNATIONAL BANK
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT IN EDUCATION
LABOR FORCE
LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION
LABOR MARKET
LABOR MARKETS
LABOR SUPPLY
LABOUR MARKET
LEVEL OF EDUCATION
LEVEL OF FERTILITY
LEVELS OF CONSUMPTION
LEVELS OF EDUCATION
LEVELS OF FERTILITY
LEVELS OF MORTALITY
LIFE EXPECTANCY
LIFETIME
LIVING CONDITIONS
LIVING STANDARDS
LOWER FERTILITY
MARGINAL PRODUCTIVITY
MARKET INFORMATION
MEDICAL CARE
MIGRANTS
MIGRATION FLOWS
MINISTRY OF HEALTH
MORTALITY RATE
NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
NATURAL RESOURCE
NUMBER OF CHILDREN
NUMBER OF MIGRANTS
OLD AGE
OPPORTUNITY COSTS
OPTIMIZATION
ORPHANS
PANDEMIC
PARENTAL CARE
PER CAPITA INCOMES
PHYSICAL CAPITAL
POLICY RESEARCH
POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER
POPULATION DIVISION
POPULATION GROWTH
POPULATION MOVEMENTS
POPULATION PRESSURE
POPULATION RESEARCH
POPULATION SIZE
POPULATION STRUCTURE
POPULATION STRUCTURES
PREMATURE ADULT MORTALITY
PREMATURE DEATH
PRESENT VALUE
PRESENT VALUES
PREVENTION INTERVENTIONS
PRIMARY EDUCATION
PRIMARY SCHOOL
PRIMARY SCHOOL AGE
PROBABILITIES
PROBABILITY
PRODUCTIVITY
PROFITABILITY
PROGRESS
PUBLIC GOOD
PUBLIC INVESTMENT
PUBLIC POLICY
RATE OF GROWTH
RATE OF TRANSMISSION
RESPECT
RURAL AREAS
RURAL POPULATION
SAFE BLOOD SUPPLY
SAVINGS
SAVINGS RATE
SCHOOL ATTENDANCE
SCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN
SECONDARY EDUCATION
SEX
SEX WORKERS
SEXUALLY ACTIVE
SEXUALLY ACTIVE POPULATION
SMALLHOLDERS
SOCIAL AFFAIRS
SOCIAL SCIENCE
SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH
SOCIAL WELFARE
SOIL EROSION
SOURCES OF INCOME
STOCKS
SURVIVAL RATE
TAX BURDEN
TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
UNEMPLOYED
UNEMPLOYMENT
UNION
UNIONS
URBAN AREAS
URBAN DEVELOPMENT
URBAN MIGRATION
URBAN POPULATION
URBANIZATION
UTILITY FUNCTION
VALUABLE
VALUE ADDED
VICTIMS
VILLAGE
VILLAGES
WAGE
WAGES
WORKING AGE
WORLD POPULATION
YOUNG ADULT
YOUNG ADULTHOOD
YOUNG ADULTS
YOUNG CHILDREN
YOUNG COUPLE
Bell, Clive
Koukoumelis, Anastasios
AIDS and Dualism : Ethiopia’s Burden under Rational Expectations
geographic_facet Africa
Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
East Africa
Ethiopia
relation Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 4919
description An AIDS epidemic threatens Ethiopia with a long wave of premature adult mortality, and thus with an enduring setback to capital formation and economic growth. The authors develop a two-sector model with three overlapping generations and intersectorally mobile labor, in which young adults allocate resources under rational expectations. They calibrate the model to the demographic and economic data, and perform simulations for the period ending in 2100 under alternative assumptions about mortality with and without the epidemic. Although the epidemic does not bring about a catastrophic economic collapse, which is hardly possible in view of Ethiopia's poverty and high background adult mortality, it does cause a permanent, downward displacement of the path of output per head, amounting to 10 percent in 2100. An externally funded program to combat the disease is socially very profitable.
format Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author Bell, Clive
Koukoumelis, Anastasios
author_facet Bell, Clive
Koukoumelis, Anastasios
author_sort Bell, Clive
title AIDS and Dualism : Ethiopia’s Burden under Rational Expectations
title_short AIDS and Dualism : Ethiopia’s Burden under Rational Expectations
title_full AIDS and Dualism : Ethiopia’s Burden under Rational Expectations
title_fullStr AIDS and Dualism : Ethiopia’s Burden under Rational Expectations
title_full_unstemmed AIDS and Dualism : Ethiopia’s Burden under Rational Expectations
title_sort aids and dualism : ethiopia’s burden under rational expectations
publishDate 2012
url http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090429102946
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4110
_version_ 1764389962338271232
spelling okr-10986-41102021-04-23T14:02:15Z AIDS and Dualism : Ethiopia’s Burden under Rational Expectations Bell, Clive Koukoumelis, Anastasios ADULT ILLITERACY ADVERSE IMPACT AGGREGATE COSTS AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AGRICULTURE AIDS EPIDEMIC AIDS PATIENTS ALGORITHM AVERAGE GROWTH BASE YEAR BENCHMARK BEQUESTS BRAIN DRAIN BUDGETARY SUPPORT BULLETIN CALCULATION CALCULATIONS CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL MARKETS CAPITAL STOCK CHILD LABOR CHILD LABOUR CHILD MORTALITY COMPLICATIONS CONDOM CONDOM PROMOTION CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE CONTRIBUTION CONTRIBUTIONS COSTS OF AIDS CURRENT INCOME DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION DEPENDENT CHILDREN DEPRECIATION DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES DIMINISHING RETURNS DISABILITY DISCOUNT RATE DUAL ECONOMY EARLY DEATH ECONOMIC AGENTS ECONOMIC COSTS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC HISTORY ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC REFORM EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTS ELASTICITY ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ENDOWMENTS ENROLLMENT ENROLLMENTS ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS EXCESS MORTALITY EXCHANGE RATE EXOGENOUS VARIABLES EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXTENDED FAMILY FACT SHEET FAMILIES FAMILY FARM FAMILY MEMBERS FAMILY STRUCTURE FARMERS FERTILITY LEVELS FERTILITY RATES FEWER CHILDREN FORECASTS FORM OF INVESTMENT FORMAL EDUCATION GDP GDP PER CAPITA GENDER GENDER INEQUALITY GROWTH RATE HEALTH CARE HEALTH CARE COSTS HEALTH-SECTOR HIV HOUSEHOLD POVERTY HOUSEHOLDS HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMPACT OF AIDS INCOME INFANT INFECTIONS INSURANCE INTERNAL MIGRATION INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY INVENTORY INVESTMENT IN EDUCATION LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LABOR SUPPLY LABOUR MARKET LEVEL OF EDUCATION LEVEL OF FERTILITY LEVELS OF CONSUMPTION LEVELS OF EDUCATION LEVELS OF FERTILITY LEVELS OF MORTALITY LIFE EXPECTANCY LIFETIME LIVING CONDITIONS LIVING STANDARDS LOWER FERTILITY MARGINAL PRODUCTIVITY MARKET INFORMATION MEDICAL CARE MIGRANTS MIGRATION FLOWS MINISTRY OF HEALTH MORTALITY RATE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT NATURAL RESOURCE NUMBER OF CHILDREN NUMBER OF MIGRANTS OLD AGE OPPORTUNITY COSTS OPTIMIZATION ORPHANS PANDEMIC PARENTAL CARE PER CAPITA INCOMES PHYSICAL CAPITAL POLICY RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER POPULATION DIVISION POPULATION GROWTH POPULATION MOVEMENTS POPULATION PRESSURE POPULATION RESEARCH POPULATION SIZE POPULATION STRUCTURE POPULATION STRUCTURES PREMATURE ADULT MORTALITY PREMATURE DEATH PRESENT VALUE PRESENT VALUES PREVENTION INTERVENTIONS PRIMARY EDUCATION PRIMARY SCHOOL PRIMARY SCHOOL AGE PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY PRODUCTIVITY PROFITABILITY PROGRESS PUBLIC GOOD PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC POLICY RATE OF GROWTH RATE OF TRANSMISSION RESPECT RURAL AREAS RURAL POPULATION SAFE BLOOD SUPPLY SAVINGS SAVINGS RATE SCHOOL ATTENDANCE SCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN SECONDARY EDUCATION SEX SEX WORKERS SEXUALLY ACTIVE SEXUALLY ACTIVE POPULATION SMALLHOLDERS SOCIAL AFFAIRS SOCIAL SCIENCE SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH SOCIAL WELFARE SOIL EROSION SOURCES OF INCOME STOCKS SURVIVAL RATE TAX BURDEN TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY UNEMPLOYED UNEMPLOYMENT UNION UNIONS URBAN AREAS URBAN DEVELOPMENT URBAN MIGRATION URBAN POPULATION URBANIZATION UTILITY FUNCTION VALUABLE VALUE ADDED VICTIMS VILLAGE VILLAGES WAGE WAGES WORKING AGE WORLD POPULATION YOUNG ADULT YOUNG ADULTHOOD YOUNG ADULTS YOUNG CHILDREN YOUNG COUPLE An AIDS epidemic threatens Ethiopia with a long wave of premature adult mortality, and thus with an enduring setback to capital formation and economic growth. The authors develop a two-sector model with three overlapping generations and intersectorally mobile labor, in which young adults allocate resources under rational expectations. They calibrate the model to the demographic and economic data, and perform simulations for the period ending in 2100 under alternative assumptions about mortality with and without the epidemic. Although the epidemic does not bring about a catastrophic economic collapse, which is hardly possible in view of Ethiopia's poverty and high background adult mortality, it does cause a permanent, downward displacement of the path of output per head, amounting to 10 percent in 2100. An externally funded program to combat the disease is socially very profitable. 2012-03-19T19:10:09Z 2012-03-19T19:10:09Z 2009-04-01 http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090429102946 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4110 English Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 4919 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Africa Africa Sub-Saharan Africa East Africa Ethiopia