AIDS and Dualism : Ethiopia’s Burden under Rational Expectations
An AIDS epidemic threatens Ethiopia with a long wave of premature adult mortality, and thus with an enduring setback to capital formation and economic growth. The authors develop a two-sector model with three overlapping generations and intersector...
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Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
Language: | English |
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2012
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Online Access: | http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090429102946 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4110 |
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okr-10986-4110 |
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World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
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World Bank |
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English |
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ADULT ILLITERACY ADVERSE IMPACT AGGREGATE COSTS AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AGRICULTURE AIDS EPIDEMIC AIDS PATIENTS ALGORITHM AVERAGE GROWTH BASE YEAR BENCHMARK BEQUESTS BRAIN DRAIN BUDGETARY SUPPORT BULLETIN CALCULATION CALCULATIONS CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL MARKETS CAPITAL STOCK CHILD LABOR CHILD LABOUR CHILD MORTALITY COMPLICATIONS CONDOM CONDOM PROMOTION CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE CONTRIBUTION CONTRIBUTIONS COSTS OF AIDS CURRENT INCOME DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION DEPENDENT CHILDREN DEPRECIATION DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES DIMINISHING RETURNS DISABILITY DISCOUNT RATE DUAL ECONOMY EARLY DEATH ECONOMIC AGENTS ECONOMIC COSTS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC HISTORY ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC REFORM EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTS ELASTICITY ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ENDOWMENTS ENROLLMENT ENROLLMENTS ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS EXCESS MORTALITY EXCHANGE RATE EXOGENOUS VARIABLES EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXTENDED FAMILY FACT SHEET FAMILIES FAMILY FARM FAMILY MEMBERS FAMILY STRUCTURE FARMERS FERTILITY LEVELS FERTILITY RATES FEWER CHILDREN FORECASTS FORM OF INVESTMENT FORMAL EDUCATION GDP GDP PER CAPITA GENDER GENDER INEQUALITY GROWTH RATE HEALTH CARE HEALTH CARE COSTS HEALTH-SECTOR HIV HOUSEHOLD POVERTY HOUSEHOLDS HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMPACT OF AIDS INCOME INFANT INFECTIONS INSURANCE INTERNAL MIGRATION INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY INVENTORY INVESTMENT IN EDUCATION LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LABOR SUPPLY LABOUR MARKET LEVEL OF EDUCATION LEVEL OF FERTILITY LEVELS OF CONSUMPTION LEVELS OF EDUCATION LEVELS OF FERTILITY LEVELS OF MORTALITY LIFE EXPECTANCY LIFETIME LIVING CONDITIONS LIVING STANDARDS LOWER FERTILITY MARGINAL PRODUCTIVITY MARKET INFORMATION MEDICAL CARE MIGRANTS MIGRATION FLOWS MINISTRY OF HEALTH MORTALITY RATE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT NATURAL RESOURCE NUMBER OF CHILDREN NUMBER OF MIGRANTS OLD AGE OPPORTUNITY COSTS OPTIMIZATION ORPHANS PANDEMIC PARENTAL CARE PER CAPITA INCOMES PHYSICAL CAPITAL POLICY RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER POPULATION DIVISION POPULATION GROWTH POPULATION MOVEMENTS POPULATION PRESSURE POPULATION RESEARCH POPULATION SIZE POPULATION STRUCTURE POPULATION STRUCTURES PREMATURE ADULT MORTALITY PREMATURE DEATH PRESENT VALUE PRESENT VALUES PREVENTION INTERVENTIONS PRIMARY EDUCATION PRIMARY SCHOOL PRIMARY SCHOOL AGE PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY PRODUCTIVITY PROFITABILITY PROGRESS PUBLIC GOOD PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC POLICY RATE OF GROWTH RATE OF TRANSMISSION RESPECT RURAL AREAS RURAL POPULATION SAFE BLOOD SUPPLY SAVINGS SAVINGS RATE SCHOOL ATTENDANCE SCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN SECONDARY EDUCATION SEX SEX WORKERS SEXUALLY ACTIVE SEXUALLY ACTIVE POPULATION SMALLHOLDERS SOCIAL AFFAIRS SOCIAL SCIENCE SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH SOCIAL WELFARE SOIL EROSION SOURCES OF INCOME STOCKS SURVIVAL RATE TAX BURDEN TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY UNEMPLOYED UNEMPLOYMENT UNION UNIONS URBAN AREAS URBAN DEVELOPMENT URBAN MIGRATION URBAN POPULATION URBANIZATION UTILITY FUNCTION VALUABLE VALUE ADDED VICTIMS VILLAGE VILLAGES WAGE WAGES WORKING AGE WORLD POPULATION YOUNG ADULT YOUNG ADULTHOOD YOUNG ADULTS YOUNG CHILDREN YOUNG COUPLE |
spellingShingle |
ADULT ILLITERACY ADVERSE IMPACT AGGREGATE COSTS AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AGRICULTURE AIDS EPIDEMIC AIDS PATIENTS ALGORITHM AVERAGE GROWTH BASE YEAR BENCHMARK BEQUESTS BRAIN DRAIN BUDGETARY SUPPORT BULLETIN CALCULATION CALCULATIONS CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL MARKETS CAPITAL STOCK CHILD LABOR CHILD LABOUR CHILD MORTALITY COMPLICATIONS CONDOM CONDOM PROMOTION CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE CONTRIBUTION CONTRIBUTIONS COSTS OF AIDS CURRENT INCOME DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION DEPENDENT CHILDREN DEPRECIATION DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES DIMINISHING RETURNS DISABILITY DISCOUNT RATE DUAL ECONOMY EARLY DEATH ECONOMIC AGENTS ECONOMIC COSTS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC HISTORY ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC REFORM EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTS ELASTICITY ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ENDOWMENTS ENROLLMENT ENROLLMENTS ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS EXCESS MORTALITY EXCHANGE RATE EXOGENOUS VARIABLES EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXTENDED FAMILY FACT SHEET FAMILIES FAMILY FARM FAMILY MEMBERS FAMILY STRUCTURE FARMERS FERTILITY LEVELS FERTILITY RATES FEWER CHILDREN FORECASTS FORM OF INVESTMENT FORMAL EDUCATION GDP GDP PER CAPITA GENDER GENDER INEQUALITY GROWTH RATE HEALTH CARE HEALTH CARE COSTS HEALTH-SECTOR HIV HOUSEHOLD POVERTY HOUSEHOLDS HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMPACT OF AIDS INCOME INFANT INFECTIONS INSURANCE INTERNAL MIGRATION INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY INVENTORY INVESTMENT IN EDUCATION LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LABOR SUPPLY LABOUR MARKET LEVEL OF EDUCATION LEVEL OF FERTILITY LEVELS OF CONSUMPTION LEVELS OF EDUCATION LEVELS OF FERTILITY LEVELS OF MORTALITY LIFE EXPECTANCY LIFETIME LIVING CONDITIONS LIVING STANDARDS LOWER FERTILITY MARGINAL PRODUCTIVITY MARKET INFORMATION MEDICAL CARE MIGRANTS MIGRATION FLOWS MINISTRY OF HEALTH MORTALITY RATE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT NATURAL RESOURCE NUMBER OF CHILDREN NUMBER OF MIGRANTS OLD AGE OPPORTUNITY COSTS OPTIMIZATION ORPHANS PANDEMIC PARENTAL CARE PER CAPITA INCOMES PHYSICAL CAPITAL POLICY RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER POPULATION DIVISION POPULATION GROWTH POPULATION MOVEMENTS POPULATION PRESSURE POPULATION RESEARCH POPULATION SIZE POPULATION STRUCTURE POPULATION STRUCTURES PREMATURE ADULT MORTALITY PREMATURE DEATH PRESENT VALUE PRESENT VALUES PREVENTION INTERVENTIONS PRIMARY EDUCATION PRIMARY SCHOOL PRIMARY SCHOOL AGE PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY PRODUCTIVITY PROFITABILITY PROGRESS PUBLIC GOOD PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC POLICY RATE OF GROWTH RATE OF TRANSMISSION RESPECT RURAL AREAS RURAL POPULATION SAFE BLOOD SUPPLY SAVINGS SAVINGS RATE SCHOOL ATTENDANCE SCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN SECONDARY EDUCATION SEX SEX WORKERS SEXUALLY ACTIVE SEXUALLY ACTIVE POPULATION SMALLHOLDERS SOCIAL AFFAIRS SOCIAL SCIENCE SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH SOCIAL WELFARE SOIL EROSION SOURCES OF INCOME STOCKS SURVIVAL RATE TAX BURDEN TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY UNEMPLOYED UNEMPLOYMENT UNION UNIONS URBAN AREAS URBAN DEVELOPMENT URBAN MIGRATION URBAN POPULATION URBANIZATION UTILITY FUNCTION VALUABLE VALUE ADDED VICTIMS VILLAGE VILLAGES WAGE WAGES WORKING AGE WORLD POPULATION YOUNG ADULT YOUNG ADULTHOOD YOUNG ADULTS YOUNG CHILDREN YOUNG COUPLE Bell, Clive Koukoumelis, Anastasios AIDS and Dualism : Ethiopia’s Burden under Rational Expectations |
geographic_facet |
Africa Africa Sub-Saharan Africa East Africa Ethiopia |
relation |
Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 4919 |
description |
An AIDS epidemic threatens Ethiopia with
a long wave of premature adult mortality, and thus with an
enduring setback to capital formation and economic growth.
The authors develop a two-sector model with three
overlapping generations and intersectorally mobile labor, in
which young adults allocate resources under rational
expectations. They calibrate the model to the demographic
and economic data, and perform simulations for the period
ending in 2100 under alternative assumptions about mortality
with and without the epidemic. Although the epidemic does
not bring about a catastrophic economic collapse, which is
hardly possible in view of Ethiopia's poverty and high
background adult mortality, it does cause a permanent,
downward displacement of the path of output per head,
amounting to 10 percent in 2100. An externally funded
program to combat the disease is socially very profitable. |
format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
author |
Bell, Clive Koukoumelis, Anastasios |
author_facet |
Bell, Clive Koukoumelis, Anastasios |
author_sort |
Bell, Clive |
title |
AIDS and Dualism : Ethiopia’s Burden under Rational Expectations |
title_short |
AIDS and Dualism : Ethiopia’s Burden under Rational Expectations |
title_full |
AIDS and Dualism : Ethiopia’s Burden under Rational Expectations |
title_fullStr |
AIDS and Dualism : Ethiopia’s Burden under Rational Expectations |
title_full_unstemmed |
AIDS and Dualism : Ethiopia’s Burden under Rational Expectations |
title_sort |
aids and dualism : ethiopia’s burden under rational expectations |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090429102946 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4110 |
_version_ |
1764389962338271232 |
spelling |
okr-10986-41102021-04-23T14:02:15Z AIDS and Dualism : Ethiopia’s Burden under Rational Expectations Bell, Clive Koukoumelis, Anastasios ADULT ILLITERACY ADVERSE IMPACT AGGREGATE COSTS AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AGRICULTURE AIDS EPIDEMIC AIDS PATIENTS ALGORITHM AVERAGE GROWTH BASE YEAR BENCHMARK BEQUESTS BRAIN DRAIN BUDGETARY SUPPORT BULLETIN CALCULATION CALCULATIONS CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL MARKETS CAPITAL STOCK CHILD LABOR CHILD LABOUR CHILD MORTALITY COMPLICATIONS CONDOM CONDOM PROMOTION CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE CONTRIBUTION CONTRIBUTIONS COSTS OF AIDS CURRENT INCOME DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION DEPENDENT CHILDREN DEPRECIATION DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES DIMINISHING RETURNS DISABILITY DISCOUNT RATE DUAL ECONOMY EARLY DEATH ECONOMIC AGENTS ECONOMIC COSTS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC HISTORY ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC REFORM EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTS ELASTICITY ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ENDOWMENTS ENROLLMENT ENROLLMENTS ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS EXCESS MORTALITY EXCHANGE RATE EXOGENOUS VARIABLES EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXTENDED FAMILY FACT SHEET FAMILIES FAMILY FARM FAMILY MEMBERS FAMILY STRUCTURE FARMERS FERTILITY LEVELS FERTILITY RATES FEWER CHILDREN FORECASTS FORM OF INVESTMENT FORMAL EDUCATION GDP GDP PER CAPITA GENDER GENDER INEQUALITY GROWTH RATE HEALTH CARE HEALTH CARE COSTS HEALTH-SECTOR HIV HOUSEHOLD POVERTY HOUSEHOLDS HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMPACT OF AIDS INCOME INFANT INFECTIONS INSURANCE INTERNAL MIGRATION INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY INVENTORY INVESTMENT IN EDUCATION LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LABOR SUPPLY LABOUR MARKET LEVEL OF EDUCATION LEVEL OF FERTILITY LEVELS OF CONSUMPTION LEVELS OF EDUCATION LEVELS OF FERTILITY LEVELS OF MORTALITY LIFE EXPECTANCY LIFETIME LIVING CONDITIONS LIVING STANDARDS LOWER FERTILITY MARGINAL PRODUCTIVITY MARKET INFORMATION MEDICAL CARE MIGRANTS MIGRATION FLOWS MINISTRY OF HEALTH MORTALITY RATE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT NATURAL RESOURCE NUMBER OF CHILDREN NUMBER OF MIGRANTS OLD AGE OPPORTUNITY COSTS OPTIMIZATION ORPHANS PANDEMIC PARENTAL CARE PER CAPITA INCOMES PHYSICAL CAPITAL POLICY RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER POPULATION DIVISION POPULATION GROWTH POPULATION MOVEMENTS POPULATION PRESSURE POPULATION RESEARCH POPULATION SIZE POPULATION STRUCTURE POPULATION STRUCTURES PREMATURE ADULT MORTALITY PREMATURE DEATH PRESENT VALUE PRESENT VALUES PREVENTION INTERVENTIONS PRIMARY EDUCATION PRIMARY SCHOOL PRIMARY SCHOOL AGE PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY PRODUCTIVITY PROFITABILITY PROGRESS PUBLIC GOOD PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC POLICY RATE OF GROWTH RATE OF TRANSMISSION RESPECT RURAL AREAS RURAL POPULATION SAFE BLOOD SUPPLY SAVINGS SAVINGS RATE SCHOOL ATTENDANCE SCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN SECONDARY EDUCATION SEX SEX WORKERS SEXUALLY ACTIVE SEXUALLY ACTIVE POPULATION SMALLHOLDERS SOCIAL AFFAIRS SOCIAL SCIENCE SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH SOCIAL WELFARE SOIL EROSION SOURCES OF INCOME STOCKS SURVIVAL RATE TAX BURDEN TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY UNEMPLOYED UNEMPLOYMENT UNION UNIONS URBAN AREAS URBAN DEVELOPMENT URBAN MIGRATION URBAN POPULATION URBANIZATION UTILITY FUNCTION VALUABLE VALUE ADDED VICTIMS VILLAGE VILLAGES WAGE WAGES WORKING AGE WORLD POPULATION YOUNG ADULT YOUNG ADULTHOOD YOUNG ADULTS YOUNG CHILDREN YOUNG COUPLE An AIDS epidemic threatens Ethiopia with a long wave of premature adult mortality, and thus with an enduring setback to capital formation and economic growth. The authors develop a two-sector model with three overlapping generations and intersectorally mobile labor, in which young adults allocate resources under rational expectations. They calibrate the model to the demographic and economic data, and perform simulations for the period ending in 2100 under alternative assumptions about mortality with and without the epidemic. Although the epidemic does not bring about a catastrophic economic collapse, which is hardly possible in view of Ethiopia's poverty and high background adult mortality, it does cause a permanent, downward displacement of the path of output per head, amounting to 10 percent in 2100. An externally funded program to combat the disease is socially very profitable. 2012-03-19T19:10:09Z 2012-03-19T19:10:09Z 2009-04-01 http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090429102946 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4110 English Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 4919 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Africa Africa Sub-Saharan Africa East Africa Ethiopia |