What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows?
Successful export growth and diversification require not only entry into new export products and markets, but also the survival and growth of export flows. This paper uses a detailed, cross-country dataset of product level bilateral export flows to...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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2012
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| Online Access: | http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090605125423 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4148 |
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okr-10986-41482021-04-23T14:02:15Z What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows? Brenton, Paul Saborowski, Christian von Uexkull, Erik ABSOLUTE VALUE ADVERSE IMPACTS BARRIERS TO TRADE BILATERAL TRADE COMMODITIES CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT COUNTRY MARKETS CURRENCY DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC SIZE ENFORCEMENT OF CONTRACTS EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTED RETURN EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION EXPORT DYNAMICS EXPORT GROWTH EXPORT MARKETS EXPORT PERFORMANCE EXPORT PRODUCTS EXPORT PROMOTION EXPORT PROMOTION AGENCY EXPORT PROMOTION STRATEGIES EXPORT TAX EXPORT VALUE EXPORTERS EXPORTS FINISHED PRODUCT FIXED COSTS FOREIGN MARKETS FUTURE RESEARCH GDP GROWTH RATES IMPACT OF TRADE IMPORT DATA IMPORTS INCOME INCOME GROUPS INCOME LEVELS INFORMATION ASYMMETRIES INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT INSURANCE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS INTERNATIONAL TRADE LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRY LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES LOW-INCOME COUNTRY MARKET INFORMATION MARKET SIZE NEW MARKET OVERVALUATION PERFECT INFORMATION PREFERENTIAL TRADE PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENT PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENTS PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION PRODUCTION COSTS PUBLIC POLICY PURCHASING PURCHASING POWER REGRESSION ANALYSIS REPUTATION SINGLE MARKET SUNK COSTS SUPPLIER SUPPLIERS TARIFF LINE TARIFF PREFERENCES TARIFF RATE TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TRADE CLASSIFICATION TRADE COSTS TRADE DIVERSION TRADE FLOW DATA TRADE FLOWS TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE PARTNERS TRADE POLICY TRADE POLICY REFORMS TRADE REFORM TRADE RELATIONSHIP TRADE RELATIONSHIPS TRADE VALUE TRANSITION ECONOMIES UNEMPLOYMENT VALUE OF TRADE VOLATILITY WEAK ENFORCEMENT WEALTH Successful export growth and diversification require not only entry into new export products and markets, but also the survival and growth of export flows. This paper uses a detailed, cross-country dataset of product level bilateral export flows to illustrate that exporting is an extremely perilous activity and especially so in low-income countries. The authors find that unobserved individual heterogeneity in product-level export flow data prevails despite controlling for a wide range of observed country and product characteristics. This questions previous studies that have used the Cox proportional hazards model to model export survival. The authors estimate a Prentice-Gloeckler model, amended with a gamma mixture distribution summarizing unobserved individual heterogeneity. The empirical results confirm the significance of a range of products as well as country-specific factors in determining the survival of export flows. From a policy perspective, an interesting finding is the importance of learning-by-doing for export survival: experience with exporting the same product to other markets or different products to the same market are found to strongly increase the chance of export survival. A better understanding of such learning effects could substantially improve the effectiveness of export promotion strategies. 2012-03-19T19:10:47Z 2012-03-19T19:10:47Z 2009-06-01 http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090605125423 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4148 English Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 4951 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper The World Region The World Region |
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Digital Repository |
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Foreign Institution |
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Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
ABSOLUTE VALUE ADVERSE IMPACTS BARRIERS TO TRADE BILATERAL TRADE COMMODITIES CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT COUNTRY MARKETS CURRENCY DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC SIZE ENFORCEMENT OF CONTRACTS EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTED RETURN EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION EXPORT DYNAMICS EXPORT GROWTH EXPORT MARKETS EXPORT PERFORMANCE EXPORT PRODUCTS EXPORT PROMOTION EXPORT PROMOTION AGENCY EXPORT PROMOTION STRATEGIES EXPORT TAX EXPORT VALUE EXPORTERS EXPORTS FINISHED PRODUCT FIXED COSTS FOREIGN MARKETS FUTURE RESEARCH GDP GROWTH RATES IMPACT OF TRADE IMPORT DATA IMPORTS INCOME INCOME GROUPS INCOME LEVELS INFORMATION ASYMMETRIES INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT INSURANCE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS INTERNATIONAL TRADE LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRY LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES LOW-INCOME COUNTRY MARKET INFORMATION MARKET SIZE NEW MARKET OVERVALUATION PERFECT INFORMATION PREFERENTIAL TRADE PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENT PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENTS PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION PRODUCTION COSTS PUBLIC POLICY PURCHASING PURCHASING POWER REGRESSION ANALYSIS REPUTATION SINGLE MARKET SUNK COSTS SUPPLIER SUPPLIERS TARIFF LINE TARIFF PREFERENCES TARIFF RATE TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TRADE CLASSIFICATION TRADE COSTS TRADE DIVERSION TRADE FLOW DATA TRADE FLOWS TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE PARTNERS TRADE POLICY TRADE POLICY REFORMS TRADE REFORM TRADE RELATIONSHIP TRADE RELATIONSHIPS TRADE VALUE TRANSITION ECONOMIES UNEMPLOYMENT VALUE OF TRADE VOLATILITY WEAK ENFORCEMENT WEALTH |
| spellingShingle |
ABSOLUTE VALUE ADVERSE IMPACTS BARRIERS TO TRADE BILATERAL TRADE COMMODITIES CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT COUNTRY MARKETS CURRENCY DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC SIZE ENFORCEMENT OF CONTRACTS EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTED RETURN EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION EXPORT DYNAMICS EXPORT GROWTH EXPORT MARKETS EXPORT PERFORMANCE EXPORT PRODUCTS EXPORT PROMOTION EXPORT PROMOTION AGENCY EXPORT PROMOTION STRATEGIES EXPORT TAX EXPORT VALUE EXPORTERS EXPORTS FINISHED PRODUCT FIXED COSTS FOREIGN MARKETS FUTURE RESEARCH GDP GROWTH RATES IMPACT OF TRADE IMPORT DATA IMPORTS INCOME INCOME GROUPS INCOME LEVELS INFORMATION ASYMMETRIES INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT INSURANCE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS INTERNATIONAL TRADE LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRY LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES LOW-INCOME COUNTRY MARKET INFORMATION MARKET SIZE NEW MARKET OVERVALUATION PERFECT INFORMATION PREFERENTIAL TRADE PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENT PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENTS PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION PRODUCTION COSTS PUBLIC POLICY PURCHASING PURCHASING POWER REGRESSION ANALYSIS REPUTATION SINGLE MARKET SUNK COSTS SUPPLIER SUPPLIERS TARIFF LINE TARIFF PREFERENCES TARIFF RATE TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TRADE CLASSIFICATION TRADE COSTS TRADE DIVERSION TRADE FLOW DATA TRADE FLOWS TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE PARTNERS TRADE POLICY TRADE POLICY REFORMS TRADE REFORM TRADE RELATIONSHIP TRADE RELATIONSHIPS TRADE VALUE TRANSITION ECONOMIES UNEMPLOYMENT VALUE OF TRADE VOLATILITY WEAK ENFORCEMENT WEALTH Brenton, Paul Saborowski, Christian von Uexkull, Erik What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows? |
| geographic_facet |
The World Region The World Region |
| relation |
Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 4951 |
| description |
Successful export growth and
diversification require not only entry into new export
products and markets, but also the survival and growth of
export flows. This paper uses a detailed, cross-country
dataset of product level bilateral export flows to
illustrate that exporting is an extremely perilous activity
and especially so in low-income countries. The authors find
that unobserved individual heterogeneity in product-level
export flow data prevails despite controlling for a wide
range of observed country and product characteristics. This
questions previous studies that have used the Cox
proportional hazards model to model export survival. The
authors estimate a Prentice-Gloeckler model, amended with a
gamma mixture distribution summarizing unobserved individual
heterogeneity. The empirical results confirm the
significance of a range of products as well as
country-specific factors in determining the survival of
export flows. From a policy perspective, an interesting
finding is the importance of learning-by-doing for export
survival: experience with exporting the same product to
other markets or different products to the same market are
found to strongly increase the chance of export survival. A
better understanding of such learning effects could
substantially improve the effectiveness of export promotion strategies. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Brenton, Paul Saborowski, Christian von Uexkull, Erik |
| author_facet |
Brenton, Paul Saborowski, Christian von Uexkull, Erik |
| author_sort |
Brenton, Paul |
| title |
What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows? |
| title_short |
What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows? |
| title_full |
What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows? |
| title_fullStr |
What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows? |
| title_full_unstemmed |
What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows? |
| title_sort |
what explains the low survival rate of developing country export flows? |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090605125423 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4148 |
| _version_ |
1764390149607653376 |