The Growth Aftermath of Natural Disasters
This paper provides a description of the macroeconomic aftermath of natural disasters. It traces the yearly response of gross domestic product growth - both aggregated and disaggregated into its agricultural and non-agricultural components - to fou...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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2012
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| Online Access: | http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090717145342 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4193 |
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okr-10986-41932021-04-23T14:02:16Z The Growth Aftermath of Natural Disasters Fomby, Thomas Ikeda, Yuki Loayza, Norman AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AVALANCHES AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH RATE BUSINESS CYCLE BUSINESS CYCLES CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CASUALTIES CATASTROPHIC EVENTS CENTRE FOR RESEARCH ON THE EPIDEMIOLOGY COUNTRY SPECIFICITY COVARIANCE MATRIX CRED CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS DAMAGES DAT DATABASE DECLARATION DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH DISASTER DISASTER EVENTS DISASTER REDUCTION DISASTER RISK DISASTER RISK REDUCTION DISASTER TYPE DIVERSIFICATION DROUGHT DROUGHTS EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKES ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMICS ECONOMICS LETTERS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ERROR TERMS EXPLANATORY VARIABLES EXTERNAL CONDITIONS EXTERNAL SHOCKS FAMINES FINANCIAL CONDITIONS FINANCIAL SECTOR FIRES FIXED EFFECTS FLOOD FLOODS GOVERNMENT SPENDING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH EFFECT GROWTH IMPACT GROWTH MODEL GROWTH PERFORMANCE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HUMAN CAPITAL INSECT INFESTATIONS INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND LABOR FORCE LANDSLIDES LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT LONG-RUN GROWTH LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC OUTCOMES MONOTONIC EFFECTS NATURAL DISASTER NATURAL DISASTERS NATURAL HAZARDS NEGATIVE EFFECT NEGATIVE IMPACT 0 HYPOTHESIS OUTPUT VOLATILITY PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME POLICY RESEARCH PROMOTING GROWTH PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE RECESSIONS RECONSTRUCTION REGRESSION ANALYSIS REGRESSION MODEL RICH COUNTRIES SIGNIFICANT EFFECT STANDARD ERRORS STORM STORMS TRADE OPENNESS TRADE SHOCKS TSUNAMIS TYPE OF DISASTER TYPE OF DISASTERS URBAN AREAS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS VOLCANO WEALTH WIND STORMS This paper provides a description of the macroeconomic aftermath of natural disasters. It traces the yearly response of gross domestic product growth - both aggregated and disaggregated into its agricultural and non-agricultural components - to four types of natural disasters - droughts, floods, earthquakes, and storms. The paper uses a methodological approach based on pooling the experiences of various countries over time. It consists of vector auto-regressions in the presence of endogenous variables and exogenous shocks (VARX), applied to a panel of cross-country and time-series data. The analysis finds heterogeneous effects on a variety of dimensions. First, the effects of natural disasters are stronger, for better or worse, on developing than on rich countries. Second, while the impact of some natural disasters can be beneficial when they are of moderate intensity, severe disasters never have positive effects. Third, not all natural disasters are alike in terms of the growth response they induce, and, perhaps surprisingly, some can entail benefits regarding economic growth. Thus, droughts have a negative effect on both agricultural and non-agricultural growth. In contrast, floods tend to have a positive effect on economic growth in both major sectors. Earthquakes have a negative effect on agricultural growth but a positive one on non-agricultural growth. Storms tend to have a negative effect on gross domestic product growth but the effect is short-lived and small. Future research should concentrate on exploring the mechanisms behind these heterogeneous impacts. 2012-03-19T19:11:35Z 2012-03-19T19:11:35Z 2009-07-01 http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090717145342 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4193 English Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5002 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper The World Region The World Region |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AVALANCHES AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH RATE BUSINESS CYCLE BUSINESS CYCLES CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CASUALTIES CATASTROPHIC EVENTS CENTRE FOR RESEARCH ON THE EPIDEMIOLOGY COUNTRY SPECIFICITY COVARIANCE MATRIX CRED CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS DAMAGES DAT DATABASE DECLARATION DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH DISASTER DISASTER EVENTS DISASTER REDUCTION DISASTER RISK DISASTER RISK REDUCTION DISASTER TYPE DIVERSIFICATION DROUGHT DROUGHTS EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKES ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMICS ECONOMICS LETTERS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ERROR TERMS EXPLANATORY VARIABLES EXTERNAL CONDITIONS EXTERNAL SHOCKS FAMINES FINANCIAL CONDITIONS FINANCIAL SECTOR FIRES FIXED EFFECTS FLOOD FLOODS GOVERNMENT SPENDING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH EFFECT GROWTH IMPACT GROWTH MODEL GROWTH PERFORMANCE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HUMAN CAPITAL INSECT INFESTATIONS INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND LABOR FORCE LANDSLIDES LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT LONG-RUN GROWTH LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC OUTCOMES MONOTONIC EFFECTS NATURAL DISASTER NATURAL DISASTERS NATURAL HAZARDS NEGATIVE EFFECT NEGATIVE IMPACT 0 HYPOTHESIS OUTPUT VOLATILITY PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME POLICY RESEARCH PROMOTING GROWTH PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE RECESSIONS RECONSTRUCTION REGRESSION ANALYSIS REGRESSION MODEL RICH COUNTRIES SIGNIFICANT EFFECT STANDARD ERRORS STORM STORMS TRADE OPENNESS TRADE SHOCKS TSUNAMIS TYPE OF DISASTER TYPE OF DISASTERS URBAN AREAS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS VOLCANO WEALTH WIND STORMS |
| spellingShingle |
AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AVALANCHES AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH RATE BUSINESS CYCLE BUSINESS CYCLES CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CASUALTIES CATASTROPHIC EVENTS CENTRE FOR RESEARCH ON THE EPIDEMIOLOGY COUNTRY SPECIFICITY COVARIANCE MATRIX CRED CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS DAMAGES DAT DATABASE DECLARATION DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH DISASTER DISASTER EVENTS DISASTER REDUCTION DISASTER RISK DISASTER RISK REDUCTION DISASTER TYPE DIVERSIFICATION DROUGHT DROUGHTS EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKES ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMICS ECONOMICS LETTERS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ERROR TERMS EXPLANATORY VARIABLES EXTERNAL CONDITIONS EXTERNAL SHOCKS FAMINES FINANCIAL CONDITIONS FINANCIAL SECTOR FIRES FIXED EFFECTS FLOOD FLOODS GOVERNMENT SPENDING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH EFFECT GROWTH IMPACT GROWTH MODEL GROWTH PERFORMANCE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HUMAN CAPITAL INSECT INFESTATIONS INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND LABOR FORCE LANDSLIDES LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT LONG-RUN GROWTH LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC OUTCOMES MONOTONIC EFFECTS NATURAL DISASTER NATURAL DISASTERS NATURAL HAZARDS NEGATIVE EFFECT NEGATIVE IMPACT 0 HYPOTHESIS OUTPUT VOLATILITY PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME POLICY RESEARCH PROMOTING GROWTH PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE RECESSIONS RECONSTRUCTION REGRESSION ANALYSIS REGRESSION MODEL RICH COUNTRIES SIGNIFICANT EFFECT STANDARD ERRORS STORM STORMS TRADE OPENNESS TRADE SHOCKS TSUNAMIS TYPE OF DISASTER TYPE OF DISASTERS URBAN AREAS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS VOLCANO WEALTH WIND STORMS Fomby, Thomas Ikeda, Yuki Loayza, Norman The Growth Aftermath of Natural Disasters |
| geographic_facet |
The World Region The World Region |
| relation |
Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5002 |
| description |
This paper provides a description of the
macroeconomic aftermath of natural disasters. It traces the
yearly response of gross domestic product growth - both
aggregated and disaggregated into its agricultural and
non-agricultural components - to four types of natural
disasters - droughts, floods, earthquakes, and storms. The
paper uses a methodological approach based on pooling the
experiences of various countries over time. It consists of
vector auto-regressions in the presence of endogenous
variables and exogenous shocks (VARX), applied to a panel of
cross-country and time-series data. The analysis finds
heterogeneous effects on a variety of dimensions. First, the
effects of natural disasters are stronger, for better or
worse, on developing than on rich countries. Second, while
the impact of some natural disasters can be beneficial when
they are of moderate intensity, severe disasters never have
positive effects. Third, not all natural disasters are alike
in terms of the growth response they induce, and, perhaps
surprisingly, some can entail benefits regarding economic
growth. Thus, droughts have a negative effect on both
agricultural and non-agricultural growth. In contrast,
floods tend to have a positive effect on economic growth in
both major sectors. Earthquakes have a negative effect on
agricultural growth but a positive one on non-agricultural
growth. Storms tend to have a negative effect on gross
domestic product growth but the effect is short-lived and
small. Future research should concentrate on exploring the
mechanisms behind these heterogeneous impacts. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Fomby, Thomas Ikeda, Yuki Loayza, Norman |
| author_facet |
Fomby, Thomas Ikeda, Yuki Loayza, Norman |
| author_sort |
Fomby, Thomas |
| title |
The Growth Aftermath of Natural Disasters |
| title_short |
The Growth Aftermath of Natural Disasters |
| title_full |
The Growth Aftermath of Natural Disasters |
| title_fullStr |
The Growth Aftermath of Natural Disasters |
| title_full_unstemmed |
The Growth Aftermath of Natural Disasters |
| title_sort |
growth aftermath of natural disasters |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090717145342 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4193 |
| _version_ |
1764390345581264896 |