Urban Youth Bulges and Social Disorder : An Empirical Study of Asian and Sub-Saharan African Cities
By 2050, two-thirds of the world s population will live in cities, and the greatest growth in urban populations will take place in the least developed countries. This presents many governments with considerable challenges related to urban governanc...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2012
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20091103111000 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4299 |
| Summary: | By 2050, two-thirds of the world s
population will live in cities, and the greatest growth in
urban populations will take place in the least developed
countries. This presents many governments with considerable
challenges related to urban governance and the provision of
services and opportunities to a burgeoning urban population.
Among the concerns is that large youth bulges in urban
centers could be a source of political instability and
violence. Here, we assess this claim empirically using newly
collected data on city-level urban social disorder, ranging
from non-violent actions, such as demonstrations and
strikes, to violent political actions, such as riots,
terrorism, and armed conflict. The dataset covers 55 major
cities in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa for 1960-2006. The
study also utilizes a new United Nations Population Division
dataset on urban populations by age and sex. The study
further considers factors that could condition the effect of
age structure, in particular the level of informal
employment, economic growth, education, and gender
imbalances. The analysis finds that large male youth bulges
aged 15-24 are not generally associated with increased risks
of either violent or non-violent social disturbance.
Furthermore, the proxy measures of "youth
exclusion" do not seem to increase the risk that large
urban male youth bulges are associated with either form of
disturbance. However, several other factors that may be
associated with higher levels of youth exclusion - notably
absence of democratic institutions, low economic growth, and
low levels of secondary educational attainment - are
significantly and robustly associated with increasing levels
of urban social disturbance. |
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