Responding to Threats of Climate Change Mega-Catastrophes
There is a low but uncertain probability that climate change could trigger "mega-catastrophes," severe and at least partly irreversible adverse effects across broad regions. This paper first discusses the state of current knowledge and th...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2012
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20091112100234 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4318 |
| Summary: | There is a low but uncertain probability
that climate change could trigger
"mega-catastrophes," severe and at least partly
irreversible adverse effects across broad regions. This
paper first discusses the state of current knowledge and the
defining characteristics of potential climate change
mega-catastrophes. While some of these characteristics
present difficulties for using standard rational choice
methods to evaluate response options, there is still a need
to balance the benefits and costs of different possible
responses with appropriate attention to the uncertainties.
To that end, the authors present a qualitative analysis of
three options for mitigating the risk of climate
mega-catastrophes - drastic abatement of greenhouse gas
emissions, development and implementation of geoengineering,
and large-scale ex ante adaptation - against the criteria of
efficacy, cost, robustness, and flexibility. They discuss
the composition of a sound portfolio of initial investments
in reducing the risk of climate change mega-catastrophes. |
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