Pro-cyclical Fiscal Policy in Brazil : Evidence from the States
The empirical literature on budget cyclicality has generally focused more on assessing the degree of pro-cyclicality in federal (central government) revenues and expenditures and less on budget cyclicality at the sub-national level in multi-tiered...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2012
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20091202102938 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4337 |
| id |
okr-10986-4337 |
|---|---|
| recordtype |
oai_dc |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
ACCESS TO CAPITAL ACCESS TO CREDIT AUTONOMY BAILOUTS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BORROWING BUDGET CONSTRAINT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS BUDGET RIGIDITIES BUSINESS CYCLE BUSINESS CYCLES CAPITAL EXPENDITURE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL MARKET CAPITAL MARKETS CAPITAL SPENDING CENTRAL BANK CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES COEFFICIENTS CONSOLIDATION CORRUPTION CREDIT CONSTRAINT CREDIT MARKETS CREDITWORTHINESS CURRENT EXPENDITURES CYCLICAL FISCAL POLICY DEBT CRISES DEBT RESTRUCTURING DEBT STOCK DEBTS DECENTRALIZATION DEFICIT BIAS DEFICITS DEVALUATION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT BANK DISCRETIONARY EXPENDITURES DISCRETIONARY FISCAL POLICY DOMESTIC INTEREST RATES DUMMY VARIABLE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS ECONOMIC GROWTH EMERGING ECONOMIES EMERGING MARKETS EMPLOYEE EQUALITY EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES EXPENDITURE DATA EXPENDITURE EQUATIONS EXPENDITURES EXTERNAL BALANCES EXTERNALITIES FEDERAL ADMINISTRATIONS FEDERAL COUNTRIES FEDERAL DISTRICT FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT FEDERAL REVENUES FEDERAL SYSTEMS FEDERAL TAX FEDERAL TAXES FEDERAL TRANSFERS FEDERAL TRANSFERS TO STATES FINANCES FINANCIAL DEPTH FINANCIAL MARKETS FISCAL ADJUSTMENT FISCAL ADJUSTMENT PROCESS FISCAL ADJUSTMENTS FISCAL BALANCES FISCAL CONSOLIDATION FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION FISCAL EXPANSION FISCAL FEDERALISM FISCAL IMPULSE FISCAL PERFORMANCE FISCAL POLICIES FISCAL POLICY FISCAL STANCE FISCAL SURPLUSES FISCAL VARIABLES FIXED EFFECTS FOREIGN CAPITAL GOVERNMENT DEBT GOVERNMENT FINANCES GOVERNMENT SPENDING GOVERNOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROSS REVENUE GROSS REVENUES HARD BUDGET CONSTRAINTS INCOME SHOCKS INCOME TAX INDEBTEDNESS INFLATION INTEREST PAYMENTS INTEREST RATE INTERGOVERNMENTAL REVENUE INTERGOVERNMENTAL TRANSFERS INTERNATIONAL BANK INVESTMENT SPENDING LEVEL OF GOVERNMENT LIABILITY LIABILITY MANAGEMENT LIMITED ACCESS LOCAL GOVERNMENTS MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY MACROECONOMIC POLICIES MACROECONOMIC POLICY MACROECONOMICS MATCHING GRANTS MONETARY FUND MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENTS MUNICIPALITIES NATIONAL TREASURY NET CURRENT REVENUE PENSIONS PERSONAL INCOME POLICY DISCRETION POLICY FRAMEWORK POLITICAL ECONOMY PRIMARY EXPENDITURE PRIMARY SURPLUS PRIVATE CREDIT PROVINCES PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT PROVINCIAL REVENUES PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC GOODS PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SPENDING RECESSIONS REDISTRIBUTION REVENUE CONTRIBUTIONS REVENUE STREAMS REVENUE VARIABLES REVENUE VOLATILITY RISK SHARING SOCIAL SERVICES STATE BUDGET STATE EXPENDITURES STATE FISCAL BEHAVIOR STATE GOVERNMENTS SUB-NATIONAL SUB-NATIONAL DEBT SUB-NATIONAL EXPENDITURES SUB-NATIONAL GOVERNMENT SUB-NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS SUBNATIONAL SUBNATIONAL EXPENDITURES SUBNATIONAL GOVERNMENTS TAX TAX BASE TAX REVENUE TAX REVENUE VOLATILITY TAX REVENUES TOTAL EXPENDITURE TOTAL EXPENDITURES TOTAL HEALTH EXPENDITURES TRANSPARENCY |
| spellingShingle |
ACCESS TO CAPITAL ACCESS TO CREDIT AUTONOMY BAILOUTS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BORROWING BUDGET CONSTRAINT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS BUDGET RIGIDITIES BUSINESS CYCLE BUSINESS CYCLES CAPITAL EXPENDITURE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL MARKET CAPITAL MARKETS CAPITAL SPENDING CENTRAL BANK CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES COEFFICIENTS CONSOLIDATION CORRUPTION CREDIT CONSTRAINT CREDIT MARKETS CREDITWORTHINESS CURRENT EXPENDITURES CYCLICAL FISCAL POLICY DEBT CRISES DEBT RESTRUCTURING DEBT STOCK DEBTS DECENTRALIZATION DEFICIT BIAS DEFICITS DEVALUATION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT BANK DISCRETIONARY EXPENDITURES DISCRETIONARY FISCAL POLICY DOMESTIC INTEREST RATES DUMMY VARIABLE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS ECONOMIC GROWTH EMERGING ECONOMIES EMERGING MARKETS EMPLOYEE EQUALITY EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES EXPENDITURE DATA EXPENDITURE EQUATIONS EXPENDITURES EXTERNAL BALANCES EXTERNALITIES FEDERAL ADMINISTRATIONS FEDERAL COUNTRIES FEDERAL DISTRICT FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT FEDERAL REVENUES FEDERAL SYSTEMS FEDERAL TAX FEDERAL TAXES FEDERAL TRANSFERS FEDERAL TRANSFERS TO STATES FINANCES FINANCIAL DEPTH FINANCIAL MARKETS FISCAL ADJUSTMENT FISCAL ADJUSTMENT PROCESS FISCAL ADJUSTMENTS FISCAL BALANCES FISCAL CONSOLIDATION FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION FISCAL EXPANSION FISCAL FEDERALISM FISCAL IMPULSE FISCAL PERFORMANCE FISCAL POLICIES FISCAL POLICY FISCAL STANCE FISCAL SURPLUSES FISCAL VARIABLES FIXED EFFECTS FOREIGN CAPITAL GOVERNMENT DEBT GOVERNMENT FINANCES GOVERNMENT SPENDING GOVERNOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROSS REVENUE GROSS REVENUES HARD BUDGET CONSTRAINTS INCOME SHOCKS INCOME TAX INDEBTEDNESS INFLATION INTEREST PAYMENTS INTEREST RATE INTERGOVERNMENTAL REVENUE INTERGOVERNMENTAL TRANSFERS INTERNATIONAL BANK INVESTMENT SPENDING LEVEL OF GOVERNMENT LIABILITY LIABILITY MANAGEMENT LIMITED ACCESS LOCAL GOVERNMENTS MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY MACROECONOMIC POLICIES MACROECONOMIC POLICY MACROECONOMICS MATCHING GRANTS MONETARY FUND MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENTS MUNICIPALITIES NATIONAL TREASURY NET CURRENT REVENUE PENSIONS PERSONAL INCOME POLICY DISCRETION POLICY FRAMEWORK POLITICAL ECONOMY PRIMARY EXPENDITURE PRIMARY SURPLUS PRIVATE CREDIT PROVINCES PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT PROVINCIAL REVENUES PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC GOODS PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SPENDING RECESSIONS REDISTRIBUTION REVENUE CONTRIBUTIONS REVENUE STREAMS REVENUE VARIABLES REVENUE VOLATILITY RISK SHARING SOCIAL SERVICES STATE BUDGET STATE EXPENDITURES STATE FISCAL BEHAVIOR STATE GOVERNMENTS SUB-NATIONAL SUB-NATIONAL DEBT SUB-NATIONAL EXPENDITURES SUB-NATIONAL GOVERNMENT SUB-NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS SUBNATIONAL SUBNATIONAL EXPENDITURES SUBNATIONAL GOVERNMENTS TAX TAX BASE TAX REVENUE TAX REVENUE VOLATILITY TAX REVENUES TOTAL EXPENDITURE TOTAL EXPENDITURES TOTAL HEALTH EXPENDITURES TRANSPARENCY Arena, Marco Revilla, Julio E. Pro-cyclical Fiscal Policy in Brazil : Evidence from the States |
| geographic_facet |
Latin America & Caribbean Latin America & Caribbean South America America Brazil |
| relation |
Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5144 |
| description |
The empirical literature on budget
cyclicality has generally focused more on assessing the
degree of pro-cyclicality in federal (central government)
revenues and expenditures and less on budget cyclicality at
the sub-national level in multi-tiered systems. This paper
attempts to contribute to the literature on budget
cyclicality by examining how sub-national fiscal revenues
and expenditures are linked to the business cycle in Brazil,
particularly after the introduction of the Fiscal
Responsibility Law. It explains the degree of
pro-cyclicality across Brazilian states, and assesses
whether intergovernmental transfers help to stabilize
states finances. These issues are addressed using both a
time-series and a cross-section dimension at the Brazilian
state level for the period 1991-2006. The empirical evidence
suggests the existence of a pro-cyclical fiscal policy in
Brazil at the state level. However, the introduction of the
Fiscal Responsibility Law helped to reduce Brazilian states
spending-side pro-cyclicality. For the Brazilian states, the
main source of the observed pro-cyclicality is found in the
behavior of tax revenues directly collected by the state
governments. Intergovernmental transfers (federal transfers
to the states) are not associated with changes in gross
state product, but they are pro-cyclically aligned with
national gross domestic product, which could amplify the
pro-cyclical behavior of sub-national expenditures. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Arena, Marco Revilla, Julio E. |
| author_facet |
Arena, Marco Revilla, Julio E. |
| author_sort |
Arena, Marco |
| title |
Pro-cyclical Fiscal Policy in Brazil : Evidence from the States |
| title_short |
Pro-cyclical Fiscal Policy in Brazil : Evidence from the States |
| title_full |
Pro-cyclical Fiscal Policy in Brazil : Evidence from the States |
| title_fullStr |
Pro-cyclical Fiscal Policy in Brazil : Evidence from the States |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Pro-cyclical Fiscal Policy in Brazil : Evidence from the States |
| title_sort |
pro-cyclical fiscal policy in brazil : evidence from the states |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20091202102938 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4337 |
| _version_ |
1764390986070360064 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-43372021-04-23T14:02:17Z Pro-cyclical Fiscal Policy in Brazil : Evidence from the States Arena, Marco Revilla, Julio E. ACCESS TO CAPITAL ACCESS TO CREDIT AUTONOMY BAILOUTS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BORROWING BUDGET CONSTRAINT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS BUDGET RIGIDITIES BUSINESS CYCLE BUSINESS CYCLES CAPITAL EXPENDITURE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL MARKET CAPITAL MARKETS CAPITAL SPENDING CENTRAL BANK CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES COEFFICIENTS CONSOLIDATION CORRUPTION CREDIT CONSTRAINT CREDIT MARKETS CREDITWORTHINESS CURRENT EXPENDITURES CYCLICAL FISCAL POLICY DEBT CRISES DEBT RESTRUCTURING DEBT STOCK DEBTS DECENTRALIZATION DEFICIT BIAS DEFICITS DEVALUATION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT BANK DISCRETIONARY EXPENDITURES DISCRETIONARY FISCAL POLICY DOMESTIC INTEREST RATES DUMMY VARIABLE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS ECONOMIC GROWTH EMERGING ECONOMIES EMERGING MARKETS EMPLOYEE EQUALITY EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES EXPENDITURE DATA EXPENDITURE EQUATIONS EXPENDITURES EXTERNAL BALANCES EXTERNALITIES FEDERAL ADMINISTRATIONS FEDERAL COUNTRIES FEDERAL DISTRICT FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT FEDERAL REVENUES FEDERAL SYSTEMS FEDERAL TAX FEDERAL TAXES FEDERAL TRANSFERS FEDERAL TRANSFERS TO STATES FINANCES FINANCIAL DEPTH FINANCIAL MARKETS FISCAL ADJUSTMENT FISCAL ADJUSTMENT PROCESS FISCAL ADJUSTMENTS FISCAL BALANCES FISCAL CONSOLIDATION FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION FISCAL EXPANSION FISCAL FEDERALISM FISCAL IMPULSE FISCAL PERFORMANCE FISCAL POLICIES FISCAL POLICY FISCAL STANCE FISCAL SURPLUSES FISCAL VARIABLES FIXED EFFECTS FOREIGN CAPITAL GOVERNMENT DEBT GOVERNMENT FINANCES GOVERNMENT SPENDING GOVERNOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROSS REVENUE GROSS REVENUES HARD BUDGET CONSTRAINTS INCOME SHOCKS INCOME TAX INDEBTEDNESS INFLATION INTEREST PAYMENTS INTEREST RATE INTERGOVERNMENTAL REVENUE INTERGOVERNMENTAL TRANSFERS INTERNATIONAL BANK INVESTMENT SPENDING LEVEL OF GOVERNMENT LIABILITY LIABILITY MANAGEMENT LIMITED ACCESS LOCAL GOVERNMENTS MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY MACROECONOMIC POLICIES MACROECONOMIC POLICY MACROECONOMICS MATCHING GRANTS MONETARY FUND MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENTS MUNICIPALITIES NATIONAL TREASURY NET CURRENT REVENUE PENSIONS PERSONAL INCOME POLICY DISCRETION POLICY FRAMEWORK POLITICAL ECONOMY PRIMARY EXPENDITURE PRIMARY SURPLUS PRIVATE CREDIT PROVINCES PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT PROVINCIAL REVENUES PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC GOODS PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SPENDING RECESSIONS REDISTRIBUTION REVENUE CONTRIBUTIONS REVENUE STREAMS REVENUE VARIABLES REVENUE VOLATILITY RISK SHARING SOCIAL SERVICES STATE BUDGET STATE EXPENDITURES STATE FISCAL BEHAVIOR STATE GOVERNMENTS SUB-NATIONAL SUB-NATIONAL DEBT SUB-NATIONAL EXPENDITURES SUB-NATIONAL GOVERNMENT SUB-NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS SUBNATIONAL SUBNATIONAL EXPENDITURES SUBNATIONAL GOVERNMENTS TAX TAX BASE TAX REVENUE TAX REVENUE VOLATILITY TAX REVENUES TOTAL EXPENDITURE TOTAL EXPENDITURES TOTAL HEALTH EXPENDITURES TRANSPARENCY The empirical literature on budget cyclicality has generally focused more on assessing the degree of pro-cyclicality in federal (central government) revenues and expenditures and less on budget cyclicality at the sub-national level in multi-tiered systems. This paper attempts to contribute to the literature on budget cyclicality by examining how sub-national fiscal revenues and expenditures are linked to the business cycle in Brazil, particularly after the introduction of the Fiscal Responsibility Law. It explains the degree of pro-cyclicality across Brazilian states, and assesses whether intergovernmental transfers help to stabilize states finances. These issues are addressed using both a time-series and a cross-section dimension at the Brazilian state level for the period 1991-2006. The empirical evidence suggests the existence of a pro-cyclical fiscal policy in Brazil at the state level. However, the introduction of the Fiscal Responsibility Law helped to reduce Brazilian states spending-side pro-cyclicality. For the Brazilian states, the main source of the observed pro-cyclicality is found in the behavior of tax revenues directly collected by the state governments. Intergovernmental transfers (federal transfers to the states) are not associated with changes in gross state product, but they are pro-cyclically aligned with national gross domestic product, which could amplify the pro-cyclical behavior of sub-national expenditures. 2012-03-19T19:14:16Z 2012-03-19T19:14:16Z 2009-12-01 http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20091202102938 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4337 English Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5144 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Latin America & Caribbean Latin America & Caribbean South America America Brazil |