Sources of Mistrust: An Experimental Case Study of a Central Asian Water Conflict

With the disintegration of the USSR a conflict arose between Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan over the transboundary Syr Darya river. Upstream Kyrgyzstan controls the Toktogul reservoir which generates hydropower demanded mainly in winter for heating. Downstream Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan need i...

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Main Authors:	Abbink, Klaus, Moller, Lars Christian, O'Hara, Sarah
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	EN
Published:	2012
Subjects:	Economic Development: Agriculture Natural Resources Energy Environment Other Primary Products O130 Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Natural Resources Environment P280 Collectives Communes Agriculture P320 Land Ownership and Tenure Land Reform Land Use Irrigation Agriculture and Environment Q150 Renewable Resources and Conservation: Water Q250 Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts Q340
Online Access:	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/5457

id	okr-10986-5457
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-54572021-04-23T14:02:22Z Sources of Mistrust: An Experimental Case Study of a Central Asian Water Conflict Abbink, Klaus Moller, Lars Christian O'Hara, Sarah Economic Development: Agriculture Natural Resources Energy Environment Other Primary Products O130 Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Natural Resources Energy Environment P280 Collectives Communes Agriculture P320 Land Ownership and Tenure Land Reform Land Use Irrigation Agriculture and Environment Q150 Renewable Resources and Conservation: Water Q250 Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts Q340 With the disintegration of the USSR a conflict arose between Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan over the transboundary Syr Darya river. Upstream Kyrgyzstan controls the Toktogul reservoir which generates hydropower demanded mainly in winter for heating. Downstream Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan need irrigation water in summer, primarily to grow an export crop (cotton). Regional agreements obliging Kyrgyzstan to higher summer discharges in exchange for fossil fuel transfers from downstream riparians in winter have been unsuccessful, due to lack of trust between the parties. Striving for self-sufficiency in irrigation water, Uzbekistan initiated new reservoir construction. This paper examines their economic impact. We report a laboratory experiment modelling the Syr Darya scenario as a multi-round, three-player trust game with non-binding contracts. Payoff schemes are estimated using real-life data. While basinwide efficiency maximisation requires regional cooperation, our results demonstrate that cooperation in the laboratory is hard to achieve. Uzbek reservoirs improve cooperation only weakly and their positive impact is limited to low-water years. 2012-03-30T07:32:55Z 2012-03-30T07:32:55Z 2010 Journal Article Environmental and Resource Economics 09246460 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/5457 EN http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo World Bank Journal Article Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Kazakhstan
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	EN
topic	Economic Development: Agriculture Natural Resources Energy Environment Other Primary Products O130 Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Natural Resources Energy Environment P280 Collectives Communes Agriculture P320 Land Ownership and Tenure Land Reform Land Use Irrigation Agriculture and Environment Q150 Renewable Resources and Conservation: Water Q250 Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts Q340
spellingShingle	Economic Development: Agriculture Natural Resources Energy Environment Other Primary Products O130 Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Natural Resources Energy Environment P280 Collectives Communes Agriculture P320 Land Ownership and Tenure Land Reform Land Use Irrigation Agriculture and Environment Q150 Renewable Resources and Conservation: Water Q250 Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts Q340 Abbink, Klaus Moller, Lars Christian O'Hara, Sarah Sources of Mistrust: An Experimental Case Study of a Central Asian Water Conflict
geographic_facet	Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Kazakhstan
relation	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo
description	With the disintegration of the USSR a conflict arose between Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan over the transboundary Syr Darya river. Upstream Kyrgyzstan controls the Toktogul reservoir which generates hydropower demanded mainly in winter for heating. Downstream Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan need irrigation water in summer, primarily to grow an export crop (cotton). Regional agreements obliging Kyrgyzstan to higher summer discharges in exchange for fossil fuel transfers from downstream riparians in winter have been unsuccessful, due to lack of trust between the parties. Striving for self-sufficiency in irrigation water, Uzbekistan initiated new reservoir construction. This paper examines their economic impact. We report a laboratory experiment modelling the Syr Darya scenario as a multi-round, three-player trust game with non-binding contracts. Payoff schemes are estimated using real-life data. While basinwide efficiency maximisation requires regional cooperation, our results demonstrate that cooperation in the laboratory is hard to achieve. Uzbek reservoirs improve cooperation only weakly and their positive impact is limited to low-water years.
format	Journal Article
author	Abbink, Klaus Moller, Lars Christian O'Hara, Sarah
author_facet	Abbink, Klaus Moller, Lars Christian O'Hara, Sarah
author_sort	Abbink, Klaus
title	Sources of Mistrust: An Experimental Case Study of a Central Asian Water Conflict
title_short	Sources of Mistrust: An Experimental Case Study of a Central Asian Water Conflict
title_full	Sources of Mistrust: An Experimental Case Study of a Central Asian Water Conflict
title_fullStr	Sources of Mistrust: An Experimental Case Study of a Central Asian Water Conflict
title_full_unstemmed	Sources of Mistrust: An Experimental Case Study of a Central Asian Water Conflict
title_sort	sources of mistrust: an experimental case study of a central asian water conflict
publishDate	2012
url	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/5457
_version_	1764395113465774080

Sources of Mistrust: An Experimental Case Study of a Central Asian Water Conflict

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