Partial Peace Rebel Groups Inside and Outside Civil War Ssettlements
Previous research proposes that peace is more likely to become durable if all rebel groups are included in the settlement reached. The argument implies that if actors are excluded and continue to pursue the military course, this could have a destab...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Washington, DC: World Bank
2012
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/03/9121378/partial-peace-rebel-groups-inside-outside-civil-war-settlements http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6556 |
| Summary: | Previous research proposes that peace is
more likely to become durable if all rebel groups are
included in the settlement reached. The argument implies
that if actors are excluded and continue to pursue the
military course, this could have a destabilizing effect on
the actors that have signed an agreement. This article
argues that all-inclusive peace deals - signed by the
government and all rebel groups - are not the panacea for
peace that many seem to believe. Given that the parties are
strategic actors who are forward-looking when making their
decisions, the signatories should anticipate that the
excluded parties may continue to fight. Therefore, the risk
of violent challenges from outside actors is likely to
already be factored into the decision-making calculus when
the signatories decide to reach a deal, and so does not
affect their commitment to peace. Implications from this
theoretical argument are tested using unique data on the
conflict behavior of the government and each of the rebel
groups in internal armed conflicts during the post-Cold War
period. The results are well in line with the theoretical
expectations and show that whether an agreement leaves out
some actor does not affect whether the signatories stick to
peace. The results demonstrate that even when excluded rebel
groups engage in conflict, this does not affect the
signatories' commitment to peace. Hence, the findings
suggest that partial peace is possible. |
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