How Will Climate Change Shift Agro-Ecological Zones and Impact African Agriculture?
The study develops a new method to measure the impacts of climate change on agriculture called the Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) Model. A multinomial logit is estimated to predict the probability of each AEZ in each district. The average percentage of...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2012
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/09/9841788/climate-change-shift-agro-ecological-zones-impact-african-agriculture http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6994 |
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okr-10986-69942021-04-23T14:02:32Z How Will Climate Change Shift Agro-Ecological Zones and Impact African Agriculture? Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep Mendelsohn, Robert AGRICULTURAL LAND AGRICULTURAL LAND USE AGRICULTURE CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE DYNAMICS CLIMATE IMPACTS CLIMATE VARIABLES CROP CROP PRODUCTION CROPLAND CROPLANDS CROPPING CROPPING PATTERNS CROPS DESERTS DRAINAGE ECOLOGICAL ZONE ECOLOGICAL ZONES ECOSYSTEMS EMISSIONS EQUILIBRIUM FAO FARM FARMER FARMERS FARMING FARMS FOOD PRODUCTION FOREST FORESTRY FORESTS GCM GLOBAL POPULATION GRAINS GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GASES GROWING SEASON GROWING SEASONS INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE IPCC LAND COVER LAND DEGRADATION LAND TENURE LAND USE LAND USE SYSTEMS METEOROLOGY NORTH AFRICA PARTNERSHIP PRECIPITATION PRODUCE RAINFALL RAINFED AGRICULTURE RAINFED FARMING SAHARA SATELLITES SNOW SNOW COVER SOIL SOILS SPACING SURFACE TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE CHANGES TEMPERATURE DATA UNEP WATER RESOURCES WEATHER WEATHER STATIONS WOOD WORLD FOOD SUPPLY YIELDS The study develops a new method to measure the impacts of climate change on agriculture called the Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) Model. A multinomial logit is estimated to predict the probability of each AEZ in each district. The average percentage of cropland and average crop net revenue are calculated for each AEZ. Then an estimate of the amount of cropland in Africa and where it is located is provided. Using current conditions, the model calculates baseline values of cropland and crop net revenue, and estimates the future impact of climate change using two scenarios-harsh and mild. Total cropland does not change much across the two climate scenarios. However, the predicted change in African crop revenue ranges from a loss of 14 percent in the mild climate scenario to 30 percent in the harsher climate scenario. The analysis reveals that the greatest harm from climate change is that it will shift farms from high to low productive AEZs. The approach not only identifies the aggregate impacts, but also indicates where the impacts occur across Africa. The central region of Africa is hurt the most, especially in the harsher climate scenario. The Agro-Ecological Zone Model is a promising new method for valuing the long-term impacts of climate change on agriculture. 2012-06-04T16:01:39Z 2012-06-04T16:01:39Z 2008-09 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/09/9841788/climate-change-shift-agro-ecological-zones-impact-african-agriculture http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6994 English Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4717 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Africa |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
AGRICULTURAL LAND AGRICULTURAL LAND USE AGRICULTURE CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE DYNAMICS CLIMATE IMPACTS CLIMATE VARIABLES CROP CROP PRODUCTION CROPLAND CROPLANDS CROPPING CROPPING PATTERNS CROPS DESERTS DRAINAGE ECOLOGICAL ZONE ECOLOGICAL ZONES ECOSYSTEMS EMISSIONS EQUILIBRIUM FAO FARM FARMER FARMERS FARMING FARMS FOOD PRODUCTION FOREST FORESTRY FORESTS GCM GLOBAL POPULATION GRAINS GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GASES GROWING SEASON GROWING SEASONS INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE IPCC LAND COVER LAND DEGRADATION LAND TENURE LAND USE LAND USE SYSTEMS METEOROLOGY NORTH AFRICA PARTNERSHIP PRECIPITATION PRODUCE RAINFALL RAINFED AGRICULTURE RAINFED FARMING SAHARA SATELLITES SNOW SNOW COVER SOIL SOILS SPACING SURFACE TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE CHANGES TEMPERATURE DATA UNEP WATER RESOURCES WEATHER WEATHER STATIONS WOOD WORLD FOOD SUPPLY YIELDS |
| spellingShingle |
AGRICULTURAL LAND AGRICULTURAL LAND USE AGRICULTURE CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE DYNAMICS CLIMATE IMPACTS CLIMATE VARIABLES CROP CROP PRODUCTION CROPLAND CROPLANDS CROPPING CROPPING PATTERNS CROPS DESERTS DRAINAGE ECOLOGICAL ZONE ECOLOGICAL ZONES ECOSYSTEMS EMISSIONS EQUILIBRIUM FAO FARM FARMER FARMERS FARMING FARMS FOOD PRODUCTION FOREST FORESTRY FORESTS GCM GLOBAL POPULATION GRAINS GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GASES GROWING SEASON GROWING SEASONS INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE IPCC LAND COVER LAND DEGRADATION LAND TENURE LAND USE LAND USE SYSTEMS METEOROLOGY NORTH AFRICA PARTNERSHIP PRECIPITATION PRODUCE RAINFALL RAINFED AGRICULTURE RAINFED FARMING SAHARA SATELLITES SNOW SNOW COVER SOIL SOILS SPACING SURFACE TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE CHANGES TEMPERATURE DATA UNEP WATER RESOURCES WEATHER WEATHER STATIONS WOOD WORLD FOOD SUPPLY YIELDS Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep Mendelsohn, Robert How Will Climate Change Shift Agro-Ecological Zones and Impact African Agriculture? |
| geographic_facet |
Africa |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4717 |
| description |
The study develops a new method to
measure the impacts of climate change on agriculture called
the Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) Model. A multinomial logit is
estimated to predict the probability of each AEZ in each
district. The average percentage of cropland and average
crop net revenue are calculated for each AEZ. Then an
estimate of the amount of cropland in Africa and where it is
located is provided. Using current conditions, the model
calculates baseline values of cropland and crop net revenue,
and estimates the future impact of climate change using two
scenarios-harsh and mild. Total cropland does not change
much across the two climate scenarios. However, the
predicted change in African crop revenue ranges from a loss
of 14 percent in the mild climate scenario to 30 percent in
the harsher climate scenario. The analysis reveals that the
greatest harm from climate change is that it will shift
farms from high to low productive AEZs. The approach not
only identifies the aggregate impacts, but also indicates
where the impacts occur across Africa. The central region of
Africa is hurt the most, especially in the harsher climate
scenario. The Agro-Ecological Zone Model is a promising new
method for valuing the long-term impacts of climate change
on agriculture. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep Mendelsohn, Robert |
| author_facet |
Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep Mendelsohn, Robert |
| author_sort |
Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep |
| title |
How Will Climate Change Shift Agro-Ecological Zones and Impact African Agriculture? |
| title_short |
How Will Climate Change Shift Agro-Ecological Zones and Impact African Agriculture? |
| title_full |
How Will Climate Change Shift Agro-Ecological Zones and Impact African Agriculture? |
| title_fullStr |
How Will Climate Change Shift Agro-Ecological Zones and Impact African Agriculture? |
| title_full_unstemmed |
How Will Climate Change Shift Agro-Ecological Zones and Impact African Agriculture? |
| title_sort |
how will climate change shift agro-ecological zones and impact african agriculture? |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/09/9841788/climate-change-shift-agro-ecological-zones-impact-african-agriculture http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6994 |
| _version_ |
1764401223259127808 |