How Will Climate Change Shift Agro-Ecological Zones and Impact African Agriculture?

The study develops a new method to measure the impacts of climate change on agriculture called the Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) Model. A multinomial logit is estimated to predict the probability of each AEZ in each district. The average percentage of...

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Main Authors: Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, Mendelsohn, Robert
Format: Policy Research Working Paper
Language:English
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2012
Subjects:
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/09/9841788/climate-change-shift-agro-ecological-zones-impact-african-agriculture
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6994
id okr-10986-6994
recordtype oai_dc
spelling okr-10986-69942021-04-23T14:02:32Z How Will Climate Change Shift Agro-Ecological Zones and Impact African Agriculture? Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep Mendelsohn, Robert AGRICULTURAL LAND AGRICULTURAL LAND USE AGRICULTURE CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE DYNAMICS CLIMATE IMPACTS CLIMATE VARIABLES CROP CROP PRODUCTION CROPLAND CROPLANDS CROPPING CROPPING PATTERNS CROPS DESERTS DRAINAGE ECOLOGICAL ZONE ECOLOGICAL ZONES ECOSYSTEMS EMISSIONS EQUILIBRIUM FAO FARM FARMER FARMERS FARMING FARMS FOOD PRODUCTION FOREST FORESTRY FORESTS GCM GLOBAL POPULATION GRAINS GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GASES GROWING SEASON GROWING SEASONS INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE IPCC LAND COVER LAND DEGRADATION LAND TENURE LAND USE LAND USE SYSTEMS METEOROLOGY NORTH AFRICA PARTNERSHIP PRECIPITATION PRODUCE RAINFALL RAINFED AGRICULTURE RAINFED FARMING SAHARA SATELLITES SNOW SNOW COVER SOIL SOILS SPACING SURFACE TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE CHANGES TEMPERATURE DATA UNEP WATER RESOURCES WEATHER WEATHER STATIONS WOOD WORLD FOOD SUPPLY YIELDS The study develops a new method to measure the impacts of climate change on agriculture called the Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) Model. A multinomial logit is estimated to predict the probability of each AEZ in each district. The average percentage of cropland and average crop net revenue are calculated for each AEZ. Then an estimate of the amount of cropland in Africa and where it is located is provided. Using current conditions, the model calculates baseline values of cropland and crop net revenue, and estimates the future impact of climate change using two scenarios-harsh and mild. Total cropland does not change much across the two climate scenarios. However, the predicted change in African crop revenue ranges from a loss of 14 percent in the mild climate scenario to 30 percent in the harsher climate scenario. The analysis reveals that the greatest harm from climate change is that it will shift farms from high to low productive AEZs. The approach not only identifies the aggregate impacts, but also indicates where the impacts occur across Africa. The central region of Africa is hurt the most, especially in the harsher climate scenario. The Agro-Ecological Zone Model is a promising new method for valuing the long-term impacts of climate change on agriculture. 2012-06-04T16:01:39Z 2012-06-04T16:01:39Z 2008-09 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/09/9841788/climate-change-shift-agro-ecological-zones-impact-african-agriculture http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6994 English Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4717 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Africa
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
topic AGRICULTURAL LAND
AGRICULTURAL LAND USE
AGRICULTURE
CLIMATE
CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGES
CLIMATE DYNAMICS
CLIMATE IMPACTS
CLIMATE VARIABLES
CROP
CROP PRODUCTION
CROPLAND
CROPLANDS
CROPPING
CROPPING PATTERNS
CROPS
DESERTS
DRAINAGE
ECOLOGICAL ZONE
ECOLOGICAL ZONES
ECOSYSTEMS
EMISSIONS
EQUILIBRIUM
FAO
FARM
FARMER
FARMERS
FARMING
FARMS
FOOD PRODUCTION
FOREST
FORESTRY
FORESTS
GCM
GLOBAL POPULATION
GRAINS
GREENHOUSE GAS
GREENHOUSE GASES
GROWING SEASON
GROWING SEASONS
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
IPCC
LAND COVER
LAND DEGRADATION
LAND TENURE
LAND USE
LAND USE SYSTEMS
METEOROLOGY
NORTH AFRICA
PARTNERSHIP
PRECIPITATION
PRODUCE
RAINFALL
RAINFED AGRICULTURE
RAINFED FARMING
SAHARA
SATELLITES
SNOW
SNOW COVER
SOIL
SOILS
SPACING
SURFACE TEMPERATURE
TEMPERATURE
TEMPERATURE CHANGES
TEMPERATURE DATA
UNEP
WATER RESOURCES
WEATHER
WEATHER STATIONS
WOOD
WORLD FOOD SUPPLY
YIELDS
spellingShingle AGRICULTURAL LAND
AGRICULTURAL LAND USE
AGRICULTURE
CLIMATE
CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGES
CLIMATE DYNAMICS
CLIMATE IMPACTS
CLIMATE VARIABLES
CROP
CROP PRODUCTION
CROPLAND
CROPLANDS
CROPPING
CROPPING PATTERNS
CROPS
DESERTS
DRAINAGE
ECOLOGICAL ZONE
ECOLOGICAL ZONES
ECOSYSTEMS
EMISSIONS
EQUILIBRIUM
FAO
FARM
FARMER
FARMERS
FARMING
FARMS
FOOD PRODUCTION
FOREST
FORESTRY
FORESTS
GCM
GLOBAL POPULATION
GRAINS
GREENHOUSE GAS
GREENHOUSE GASES
GROWING SEASON
GROWING SEASONS
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
IPCC
LAND COVER
LAND DEGRADATION
LAND TENURE
LAND USE
LAND USE SYSTEMS
METEOROLOGY
NORTH AFRICA
PARTNERSHIP
PRECIPITATION
PRODUCE
RAINFALL
RAINFED AGRICULTURE
RAINFED FARMING
SAHARA
SATELLITES
SNOW
SNOW COVER
SOIL
SOILS
SPACING
SURFACE TEMPERATURE
TEMPERATURE
TEMPERATURE CHANGES
TEMPERATURE DATA
UNEP
WATER RESOURCES
WEATHER
WEATHER STATIONS
WOOD
WORLD FOOD SUPPLY
YIELDS
Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep
Mendelsohn, Robert
How Will Climate Change Shift Agro-Ecological Zones and Impact African Agriculture?
geographic_facet Africa
relation Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4717
description The study develops a new method to measure the impacts of climate change on agriculture called the Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) Model. A multinomial logit is estimated to predict the probability of each AEZ in each district. The average percentage of cropland and average crop net revenue are calculated for each AEZ. Then an estimate of the amount of cropland in Africa and where it is located is provided. Using current conditions, the model calculates baseline values of cropland and crop net revenue, and estimates the future impact of climate change using two scenarios-harsh and mild. Total cropland does not change much across the two climate scenarios. However, the predicted change in African crop revenue ranges from a loss of 14 percent in the mild climate scenario to 30 percent in the harsher climate scenario. The analysis reveals that the greatest harm from climate change is that it will shift farms from high to low productive AEZs. The approach not only identifies the aggregate impacts, but also indicates where the impacts occur across Africa. The central region of Africa is hurt the most, especially in the harsher climate scenario. The Agro-Ecological Zone Model is a promising new method for valuing the long-term impacts of climate change on agriculture.
format Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep
Mendelsohn, Robert
author_facet Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep
Mendelsohn, Robert
author_sort Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep
title How Will Climate Change Shift Agro-Ecological Zones and Impact African Agriculture?
title_short How Will Climate Change Shift Agro-Ecological Zones and Impact African Agriculture?
title_full How Will Climate Change Shift Agro-Ecological Zones and Impact African Agriculture?
title_fullStr How Will Climate Change Shift Agro-Ecological Zones and Impact African Agriculture?
title_full_unstemmed How Will Climate Change Shift Agro-Ecological Zones and Impact African Agriculture?
title_sort how will climate change shift agro-ecological zones and impact african agriculture?
publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate 2012
url http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/09/9841788/climate-change-shift-agro-ecological-zones-impact-african-agriculture
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6994
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