Ethnic Polarization and the Duration of Civil Wars
The authors analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2012
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/04/7523819/ethnic-polarization-duration-civil-wars http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7009 |
| Summary: | The authors analyze the relationship
between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars.
Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about
the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to
increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is
directly related to the relative size of the contenders. The
authors argue that the duration of civil wars increases the
more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily
linked to the structure of the population but it could be
traced back to the measurement of the size of the different
groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement
error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier
wars. The empirical results show that ethnically polarized
countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically
less polarized societies. |
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