Ethnic Polarization and the Duration of Civil Wars

The authors analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these...

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Main Authors:	Montalvo, Jose G., Reynal-Querol, Marta
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2012
Subjects:	ARMED CONFLICT ARMED CONFLICTS ARMY CIVIL WAR CIVIL WARS CONFLICTS DEMOCRACY DEVELOPMENT POLICY DIASPORA DISPUTES DURATION OF CONFLICT DURATION OF WARS ECONOMIC GROWTH ETHNIC CONFLICT ETHNIC DIVERSITY ETHNIC DIVISIONS ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION ETHNIC FRAGMENTATION ETHNIC GROUP ETHNIC GROUPS ETHNIC HETEROGENEITY ETHNIC MAJORITY ETHNIC MINORITY ETHNIC POLARIZATION GENOCIDE HAZARD FUNCTION HUMAN LIFE INCOME INCOME INEQUALITY INTENSITY OF CONFLICT INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION MEASUREMENT OF POLARIZATION NATURAL RESOURCES NUMBER OF ETHNIC GROUPS OPPORTUNITY COST PEACE PEACE RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER POLITICAL INSTABILITY POLITICAL SYSTEMS POPULATION INCREASE POST-CONFLICT PROBABILITY OF WAR PROGRESS REBEL GROUP REBEL VICTORY REBELLION RELIGIOUS CONFLICT RELIGIOUS FRACTIONALIZATION RISK FACTOR RISK OF CONFLICT RULE OF LAW SOCIAL CONFLICTS SOCIAL POLARIZATION STATE CONFLICTS VIOLENCE WAR DURATION WAR LITERATURE WARFARE WARTIME
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/04/7523819/ethnic-polarization-duration-civil-wars http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7009

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recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-70092021-04-23T14:02:33Z Ethnic Polarization and the Duration of Civil Wars Montalvo, Jose G. Reynal-Querol, Marta ARMED CONFLICT ARMED CONFLICTS ARMY CIVIL WAR CIVIL WARS CONFLICTS DEMOCRACY DEVELOPMENT POLICY DIASPORA DISPUTES DURATION OF CONFLICT DURATION OF WARS ECONOMIC GROWTH ETHNIC CONFLICT ETHNIC DIVERSITY ETHNIC DIVISIONS ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION ETHNIC FRAGMENTATION ETHNIC GROUP ETHNIC GROUPS ETHNIC HETEROGENEITY ETHNIC MAJORITY ETHNIC MINORITY ETHNIC POLARIZATION GENOCIDE HAZARD FUNCTION HUMAN LIFE INCOME INCOME INEQUALITY INTENSITY OF CONFLICT INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION MEASUREMENT OF POLARIZATION NATURAL RESOURCES NUMBER OF ETHNIC GROUPS OPPORTUNITY COST PEACE PEACE RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER POLITICAL INSTABILITY POLITICAL SYSTEMS POPULATION INCREASE POST-CONFLICT PROBABILITY OF WAR PROGRESS REBEL GROUP REBEL VICTORY REBELLION RELIGIOUS CONFLICT RELIGIOUS FRACTIONALIZATION RISK FACTOR RISK OF CONFLICT RULE OF LAW SOCIAL CONFLICTS SOCIAL POLARIZATION STATE CONFLICTS VIOLENCE WAR DURATION WAR LITERATURE WARFARE WARTIME The authors analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is directly related to the relative size of the contenders. The authors argue that the duration of civil wars increases the more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily linked to the structure of the population but it could be traced back to the measurement of the size of the different groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier wars. The empirical results show that ethnically polarized countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically less polarized societies. 2012-06-04T17:43:31Z 2012-06-04T17:43:31Z 2007-04 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/04/7523819/ethnic-polarization-duration-civil-wars http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7009 English Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4192 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	ARMED CONFLICT ARMED CONFLICTS ARMY CIVIL WAR CIVIL WARS CONFLICTS DEMOCRACY DEVELOPMENT POLICY DIASPORA DISPUTES DURATION OF CONFLICT DURATION OF WARS ECONOMIC GROWTH ETHNIC CONFLICT ETHNIC DIVERSITY ETHNIC DIVISIONS ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION ETHNIC FRAGMENTATION ETHNIC GROUP ETHNIC GROUPS ETHNIC HETEROGENEITY ETHNIC MAJORITY ETHNIC MINORITY ETHNIC POLARIZATION GENOCIDE HAZARD FUNCTION HUMAN LIFE INCOME INCOME INEQUALITY INTENSITY OF CONFLICT INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION MEASUREMENT OF POLARIZATION NATURAL RESOURCES NUMBER OF ETHNIC GROUPS OPPORTUNITY COST PEACE PEACE RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER POLITICAL INSTABILITY POLITICAL SYSTEMS POPULATION INCREASE POST-CONFLICT PROBABILITY OF WAR PROGRESS REBEL GROUP REBEL VICTORY REBELLION RELIGIOUS CONFLICT RELIGIOUS FRACTIONALIZATION RISK FACTOR RISK OF CONFLICT RULE OF LAW SOCIAL CONFLICTS SOCIAL POLARIZATION STATE CONFLICTS VIOLENCE WAR DURATION WAR LITERATURE WARFARE WARTIME
spellingShingle	ARMED CONFLICT ARMED CONFLICTS ARMY CIVIL WAR CIVIL WARS CONFLICTS DEMOCRACY DEVELOPMENT POLICY DIASPORA DISPUTES DURATION OF CONFLICT DURATION OF WARS ECONOMIC GROWTH ETHNIC CONFLICT ETHNIC DIVERSITY ETHNIC DIVISIONS ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION ETHNIC FRAGMENTATION ETHNIC GROUP ETHNIC GROUPS ETHNIC HETEROGENEITY ETHNIC MAJORITY ETHNIC MINORITY ETHNIC POLARIZATION GENOCIDE HAZARD FUNCTION HUMAN LIFE INCOME INCOME INEQUALITY INTENSITY OF CONFLICT INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION MEASUREMENT OF POLARIZATION NATURAL RESOURCES NUMBER OF ETHNIC GROUPS OPPORTUNITY COST PEACE PEACE RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER POLITICAL INSTABILITY POLITICAL SYSTEMS POPULATION INCREASE POST-CONFLICT PROBABILITY OF WAR PROGRESS REBEL GROUP REBEL VICTORY REBELLION RELIGIOUS CONFLICT RELIGIOUS FRACTIONALIZATION RISK FACTOR RISK OF CONFLICT RULE OF LAW SOCIAL CONFLICTS SOCIAL POLARIZATION STATE CONFLICTS VIOLENCE WAR DURATION WAR LITERATURE WARFARE WARTIME Montalvo, Jose G. Reynal-Querol, Marta Ethnic Polarization and the Duration of Civil Wars
relation	Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4192
description	The authors analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is directly related to the relative size of the contenders. The authors argue that the duration of civil wars increases the more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily linked to the structure of the population but it could be traced back to the measurement of the size of the different groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier wars. The empirical results show that ethnically polarized countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically less polarized societies.
format	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author	Montalvo, Jose G. Reynal-Querol, Marta
author_facet	Montalvo, Jose G. Reynal-Querol, Marta
author_sort	Montalvo, Jose G.
title	Ethnic Polarization and the Duration of Civil Wars
title_short	Ethnic Polarization and the Duration of Civil Wars
title_full	Ethnic Polarization and the Duration of Civil Wars
title_fullStr	Ethnic Polarization and the Duration of Civil Wars
title_full_unstemmed	Ethnic Polarization and the Duration of Civil Wars
title_sort	ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2012
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/04/7523819/ethnic-polarization-duration-civil-wars http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7009
_version_	1764401732928929792

Ethnic Polarization and the Duration of Civil Wars

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