A Land of Milk and Honey with Streets Paved with Gold : Do Emigrants Have Over-Optimistic Expectations about Incomes Abroad?
Millions of people emigrate every year in search of better economic and social opportunities. Anecdotal evidence suggests that emigrants may have over-optimistic expectations about the incomes they can earn abroad, resulting in excessive migration...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2012
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/03/7405775/land-milk-honey-streets-paved-gold-emigrants-over-optimistic-expectations-incomes-abroad http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7161 |
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okr-10986-71612021-04-23T14:02:33Z A Land of Milk and Honey with Streets Paved with Gold : Do Emigrants Have Over-Optimistic Expectations about Incomes Abroad? McKenzie, David Gibson, John Stillman, Steven CHILD MORTALITY CITIZEN DEPENDENT CHILDREN DESTINATION COUNTRY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DIASPORA DISTRIBUTION OF WAGES EARNING EARNINGS EARNINGS DISTRIBUTION EARNINGS OF IMMIGRANTS ECONOMIC MIGRANTS EMIGRATION EMPLOYMENT PROBABILITIES EMPLOYMENT STATUS EXPECTED WAGE EXTENDED FAMILY FAMILY MEMBERS FAMILY REUNIFICATION HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD SURVEY IMMIGRANT IMMIGRANTS IMMIGRATION IMMIGRATION QUOTA INCOMES JOB OFFER JOB OFFERS JOB OPPORTUNITIES JOBS LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKET INFORMATION LABOUR LABOUR MARKET LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION LARGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE LOTTERY LOW EMPLOYMENT MIGRANT MIGRANT NETWORKS MIGRATION MIGRATION PROCESS MOTHER NEW ZEALAND DOLLARS POLICY CHANGE POLICY RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER POTENTIAL MIGRANTS PROGRESS PUBLIC POLICY PUBLIC SECTOR WORKERS REMITTANCE REMITTANCES RESPECT SEX SKILLED MIGRANTS SOCIAL OPPORTUNITIES SOCIAL PROBLEMS SPOUSE TELEVISION UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES WAGE DISTRIBUTION WAGE GROWTH WAGES WEALTH WORKERS YOUNG PEOPLE Millions of people emigrate every year in search of better economic and social opportunities. Anecdotal evidence suggests that emigrants may have over-optimistic expectations about the incomes they can earn abroad, resulting in excessive migration pressure, and in disappointment among those who do migrate. Yet there is almost no statistical evidence on how accurately these emigrants predict the incomes that they will earn working abroad. In this paper the authors combine a natural emigration experiment with unique survey data on would-be emigrants' probabilistic expectations about employment and incomes in the migration destination. Their procedure enables them to obtain moments and quantiles of the subjective distribution of expected earnings in the destination country. The authors find a significant underestimation of both unconditional and conditional labor earnings at all points in the distribution. This underestimation appears driven in part by potential migrants placing too much weight on the negative employment experiences of some migrants, and by inaccurate information flows from extended family, who may be trying to moderate remittance demands by understating incomes. 2012-06-05T18:56:57Z 2012-06-05T18:56:57Z 2007-03 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/03/7405775/land-milk-honey-streets-paved-gold-emigrants-over-optimistic-expectations-incomes-abroad http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7161 English Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4141 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
CHILD MORTALITY CITIZEN DEPENDENT CHILDREN DESTINATION COUNTRY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DIASPORA DISTRIBUTION OF WAGES EARNING EARNINGS EARNINGS DISTRIBUTION EARNINGS OF IMMIGRANTS ECONOMIC MIGRANTS EMIGRATION EMPLOYMENT PROBABILITIES EMPLOYMENT STATUS EXPECTED WAGE EXTENDED FAMILY FAMILY MEMBERS FAMILY REUNIFICATION HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD SURVEY IMMIGRANT IMMIGRANTS IMMIGRATION IMMIGRATION QUOTA INCOMES JOB OFFER JOB OFFERS JOB OPPORTUNITIES JOBS LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKET INFORMATION LABOUR LABOUR MARKET LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION LARGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE LOTTERY LOW EMPLOYMENT MIGRANT MIGRANT NETWORKS MIGRATION MIGRATION PROCESS MOTHER NEW ZEALAND DOLLARS POLICY CHANGE POLICY RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER POTENTIAL MIGRANTS PROGRESS PUBLIC POLICY PUBLIC SECTOR WORKERS REMITTANCE REMITTANCES RESPECT SEX SKILLED MIGRANTS SOCIAL OPPORTUNITIES SOCIAL PROBLEMS SPOUSE TELEVISION UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES WAGE DISTRIBUTION WAGE GROWTH WAGES WEALTH WORKERS YOUNG PEOPLE |
| spellingShingle |
CHILD MORTALITY CITIZEN DEPENDENT CHILDREN DESTINATION COUNTRY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DIASPORA DISTRIBUTION OF WAGES EARNING EARNINGS EARNINGS DISTRIBUTION EARNINGS OF IMMIGRANTS ECONOMIC MIGRANTS EMIGRATION EMPLOYMENT PROBABILITIES EMPLOYMENT STATUS EXPECTED WAGE EXTENDED FAMILY FAMILY MEMBERS FAMILY REUNIFICATION HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD SURVEY IMMIGRANT IMMIGRANTS IMMIGRATION IMMIGRATION QUOTA INCOMES JOB OFFER JOB OFFERS JOB OPPORTUNITIES JOBS LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKET INFORMATION LABOUR LABOUR MARKET LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION LARGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE LOTTERY LOW EMPLOYMENT MIGRANT MIGRANT NETWORKS MIGRATION MIGRATION PROCESS MOTHER NEW ZEALAND DOLLARS POLICY CHANGE POLICY RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER POTENTIAL MIGRANTS PROGRESS PUBLIC POLICY PUBLIC SECTOR WORKERS REMITTANCE REMITTANCES RESPECT SEX SKILLED MIGRANTS SOCIAL OPPORTUNITIES SOCIAL PROBLEMS SPOUSE TELEVISION UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES WAGE DISTRIBUTION WAGE GROWTH WAGES WEALTH WORKERS YOUNG PEOPLE McKenzie, David Gibson, John Stillman, Steven A Land of Milk and Honey with Streets Paved with Gold : Do Emigrants Have Over-Optimistic Expectations about Incomes Abroad? |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4141 |
| description |
Millions of people emigrate every year
in search of better economic and social opportunities.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that emigrants may have
over-optimistic expectations about the incomes they can earn
abroad, resulting in excessive migration pressure, and in
disappointment among those who do migrate. Yet there is
almost no statistical evidence on how accurately these
emigrants predict the incomes that they will earn working
abroad. In this paper the authors combine a natural
emigration experiment with unique survey data on would-be
emigrants' probabilistic expectations about employment
and incomes in the migration destination. Their procedure
enables them to obtain moments and quantiles of the
subjective distribution of expected earnings in the
destination country. The authors find a significant
underestimation of both unconditional and conditional labor
earnings at all points in the distribution. This
underestimation appears driven in part by potential migrants
placing too much weight on the negative employment
experiences of some migrants, and by inaccurate information
flows from extended family, who may be trying to moderate
remittance demands by understating incomes. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
McKenzie, David Gibson, John Stillman, Steven |
| author_facet |
McKenzie, David Gibson, John Stillman, Steven |
| author_sort |
McKenzie, David |
| title |
A Land of Milk and Honey with Streets Paved with Gold : Do Emigrants Have Over-Optimistic Expectations about Incomes Abroad? |
| title_short |
A Land of Milk and Honey with Streets Paved with Gold : Do Emigrants Have Over-Optimistic Expectations about Incomes Abroad? |
| title_full |
A Land of Milk and Honey with Streets Paved with Gold : Do Emigrants Have Over-Optimistic Expectations about Incomes Abroad? |
| title_fullStr |
A Land of Milk and Honey with Streets Paved with Gold : Do Emigrants Have Over-Optimistic Expectations about Incomes Abroad? |
| title_full_unstemmed |
A Land of Milk and Honey with Streets Paved with Gold : Do Emigrants Have Over-Optimistic Expectations about Incomes Abroad? |
| title_sort |
land of milk and honey with streets paved with gold : do emigrants have over-optimistic expectations about incomes abroad? |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/03/7405775/land-milk-honey-streets-paved-gold-emigrants-over-optimistic-expectations-incomes-abroad http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7161 |
| _version_ |
1764401525279424512 |