Asian Century or Multi-polar Century?

Asian Century or Multi-polar Century?

The "rise of Asia" is something of a myth. During 1990-2005 China accounted for 28 percent of global growth, measured at purchasing power parity (PPP). India accounted for 9 percent. The rest of developing Asia, with nearly a billion peop...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	Dollar, David
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2012
Subjects:	ABUSE ADULT POPULATION AGRICULTURE AIR POLLUTION AVERAGE TARIFF AVERAGE TARIFF RATE AVERAGE TARIFFS BANKRUPTCY BONDS CAPITAL ACCOUNT CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL STOCK CITIZENS CIVIL SOCIETY CLIMATE CHANGE COAL COAL USE COMMODITY PRICES COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE CONSUMERS CUSTOMS CUSTOMS CLEARANCE CUSTOMS PROCEDURES DEBT DEBT CRISES DEMOCRACY DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING WORLD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY DIVIDENDS DOMESTIC DEMAND DOMESTIC NEEDS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC HISTORY ECONOMIC IMPACT ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ECONOMIC OUTCOMES ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC REFORM ECONOMIC TRENDS ECONOMICS EDUCATION SYSTEMS ENERGY DEMAND ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENERGY NEEDS ENERGY POLICIES ENERGY PRICES ENERGY USE ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES EXCHANGE RATE EXPORT GROWTH EXPORTS FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL SYSTEM FOREIGN INVESTMENT FOREIGN TRADE GAS RESOURCES GASOLINE PRICES GDP GINI COEFFICIENT GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL MARKET GLOBAL POPULATION GLOBAL PRODUCTION GLOBAL TRADE GREEN SPACE GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GREENHOUSE GASES GROWTH PERFORMANCE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH RECESSION HEALTH CARE HEALTH INSURANCE HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN NEEDS IMPORT TARIFF INCOME COUNTRIES INCOME DEVELOPING COUNTRIES INDUSTRIAL WASTE INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES INDUSTRY INFANT INFANT MORTALITY INFANT MORTALITY RATE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT INSURANCE SCHEMES INTEREST RATE INVESTMENT CLIMATE INVESTMENT CLIMATES INVESTMENT FLOWS INVESTMENT IN EDUCATION LABOR MARKET LARGE POPULATION LATIN AMERICAN LOCAL FIRMS LOCAL GOVERNMENTS LOCAL INFRASTRUCTURE LONG RUN LOW INFANT MORTALITY LOW SHARE MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MARKET ECONOMY MEDIUM TERM MIGRATION NATIONAL LEVEL NATURAL GAS NATURAL RESOURCE NATURAL RESOURCES NUMBER OF PEOPLE OIL OIL IMPORTS OPEN DOOR PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME PETROLEUM POLICY MEASURES POLICY RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER POLITICAL SYSTEMS POOR COUNTRIES POOR FAMILIES POPULATION GROWTH POTENTIAL OUTPUT POVERTY REDUCTION POWER PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE INVESTORS PRIVATE SECTOR PROGRESS PUBLIC EDUCATION PUBLIC HEALTH PUBLIC HEALTH EXPENDITURE PUBLIC SPENDING PUBLIC SUPPORT PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION PURCHASING POWER PURCHASING POWER PARITY RAPID GROWTH REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL INCOMES REFORM PROGRAM RETAIL PRICE OF GASOLINE RICH COUNTRIES RURAL POPULATION SAFETY NET SAFETY NETS SKILLED LABOR SOCIAL CONFLICT SOCIAL PROGRESS SOCIAL SERVICES SOCIAL SPENDING SOCIAL WELFARE SPACE HEATING STATE ENTERPRISES STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT TAX INCREASES TRADE BARRIERS TRADE DEFICIT TRADE INTEGRATION TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADING SYSTEM UNEMPLOYMENT URBAN AREAS URBAN MIGRATION URBANIZATION USE OF ENERGY VEHICLES WAGES WORLD ECONOMY WORLD POPULATION WTO
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/03/7471906/asian-century-or-multi-polar-century http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7215

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Summary:	The "rise of Asia" is something of a myth. During 1990-2005 China accounted for 28 percent of global growth, measured at purchasing power parity (PPP). India accounted for 9 percent. The rest of developing Asia, with nearly a billion people, accounted for only 7 percent, the same as Latin America. Hence there is no general success of Asian developing economies. China has grown better than its developing neighbors because it started its reform with a better base of human capital, has been more open to foreign trade and investment, and created good investment climates in coastal cities. China's success changes the equation going forward: its wages are now two to three times higher than in the populous Asian countries (Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Vietnam), and China will become an ever-larger importer of natural resource and labor-intensive products. Developing countries need to become more open and improve their investment climates to benefit from these opportunities. China itself faces new challenges that could hamper its further development: unsustainable trade imbalance with the United States, energy and water scarcity and unsustainable use of natural resources, and growing inequality and social tension. To address the first two of these challenges, good cooperation between China and the United States is essential. The author concludes that we are more likely to be facing a "multi-polar century," than an Asian century.

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