Estimating Global Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Projects : Applications in India, Sri Lanka and Vietnam
The world is faced with considerable risk and uncertainty about climate change. Particular attention has been paid increasingly to hydropower generation in recent years because it is renewable energy. However, hydropower is among the most vulnerabl...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2012
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/09/8267877/estimating-global-climate-change-impacts-hydropower-projects-applications-india-sri-lanka-vietnam-estimating-global-climate-change-impacts-hydropower-projects-applications-india-sri-lanka-vietnam http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7332 |
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okr-10986-73322021-04-23T14:02:34Z Estimating Global Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Projects : Applications in India, Sri Lanka and Vietnam Iimi, Atsushi APPROACH ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH AVAILABILITY CARBON CARBON DIOXIDE CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS CARBON EMISSIONS CARBON MARKET CHRONIC DROUGHTS CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE FORECASTS CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE RESEARCH CLIMATE VARIABILITY CLIMATE VARIABLES DAM DAMS DEMAND FOR ENERGY DOWNPOURS DRY SEASON ECONOMIC IMPACTS ELASTICITY ELECTRICITY ELECTRICITY GENERATION ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION EMISSIONS ENERGY STRATEGY ENERGY SUPPLY EVAPORATION EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FLOODS FLOW OF WATER FOSSIL FOSSIL FUEL GENERATION CAPACITY GLACIERS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL WARMING HEAD HEAT HEAT WAVES HIGHER ENERGY PRICES HYDRO ENERGY HYDRO POWER HYDRO POWER PROJECT HYDRO STATIONS HYDROLOGICAL DATA HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING HYDROLOGICAL INFORMATION HYDROLOGICAL MODEL HYDROLOGICAL MODELS HYDROLOGICAL RESOURCES HYDROLOGY HYDROPOWER HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT HYDROPOWER GENERATION HYDROPOWER PLANT HYDROPOWER PLANTS HYDROPOWER PROJECT HYDROPOWER PROJECTS HYDROPOWER STATION HYDROPOWER STATIONS INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC LAND USE LOAD FACTOR METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS PEAK LOAD PLANT OPERATION POTENTIAL IMPACTS POWER PLANTS PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OF ELECTRICITY RAIN RAINFALL RAINY SEASON RENEWABLE ENERGY RESERVOIR RESERVOIRS RIVER RIVER FLOW RIVER FLOWS RIVERS RUNOFF SEDIMENT SOIL TEMPERATURE TURBINE WATER CYCLE WATER FLOW WATER FLOWS WATER LEVEL WATER LEVELS WATER USE WEATHER The world is faced with considerable risk and uncertainty about climate change. Particular attention has been paid increasingly to hydropower generation in recent years because it is renewable energy. However, hydropower is among the most vulnerable industries to changes in global and regional climate. This paper aims to examine the possibility of applying a simple vector autoregressive model to forecast future hydrological series and evaluate the resulting impact on hydropower projects. Three projects are considered - in India, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam. The results are still tentative in terms of both methodology and implications; but the analysis shows that the calibrated dynamic forecasts of hydrological series are much different from the conventional reference points in the 90 percent dependable year. The paper also finds that hydrological discharges tend to increase with rainfall and decrease with temperature. The rainy season would likely have higher water levels, but in the lean season water resources would become even more limited. The amount of energy generated would be affected to a certain extent, but the project viability may not change so much. Comparing the three cases, it is suggested that having larger installed capacity and some storage capacity might be useful to accommodate future hydrological series and seasonality. A broader assessment will be called for at the project preparation stage. 2012-06-06T20:24:29Z 2012-06-06T20:24:29Z 2007-09 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/09/8267877/estimating-global-climate-change-impacts-hydropower-projects-applications-india-sri-lanka-vietnam-estimating-global-climate-change-impacts-hydropower-projects-applications-india-sri-lanka-vietnam http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7332 English Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4344 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research South Asia East Asia and Pacific Vietnam India Sri Lanka |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
APPROACH ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH AVAILABILITY CARBON CARBON DIOXIDE CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS CARBON EMISSIONS CARBON MARKET CHRONIC DROUGHTS CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE FORECASTS CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE RESEARCH CLIMATE VARIABILITY CLIMATE VARIABLES DAM DAMS DEMAND FOR ENERGY DOWNPOURS DRY SEASON ECONOMIC IMPACTS ELASTICITY ELECTRICITY ELECTRICITY GENERATION ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION EMISSIONS ENERGY STRATEGY ENERGY SUPPLY EVAPORATION EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FLOODS FLOW OF WATER FOSSIL FOSSIL FUEL GENERATION CAPACITY GLACIERS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL WARMING HEAD HEAT HEAT WAVES HIGHER ENERGY PRICES HYDRO ENERGY HYDRO POWER HYDRO POWER PROJECT HYDRO STATIONS HYDROLOGICAL DATA HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING HYDROLOGICAL INFORMATION HYDROLOGICAL MODEL HYDROLOGICAL MODELS HYDROLOGICAL RESOURCES HYDROLOGY HYDROPOWER HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT HYDROPOWER GENERATION HYDROPOWER PLANT HYDROPOWER PLANTS HYDROPOWER PROJECT HYDROPOWER PROJECTS HYDROPOWER STATION HYDROPOWER STATIONS INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC LAND USE LOAD FACTOR METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS PEAK LOAD PLANT OPERATION POTENTIAL IMPACTS POWER PLANTS PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OF ELECTRICITY RAIN RAINFALL RAINY SEASON RENEWABLE ENERGY RESERVOIR RESERVOIRS RIVER RIVER FLOW RIVER FLOWS RIVERS RUNOFF SEDIMENT SOIL TEMPERATURE TURBINE WATER CYCLE WATER FLOW WATER FLOWS WATER LEVEL WATER LEVELS WATER USE WEATHER |
| spellingShingle |
APPROACH ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH AVAILABILITY CARBON CARBON DIOXIDE CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS CARBON EMISSIONS CARBON MARKET CHRONIC DROUGHTS CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE FORECASTS CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE RESEARCH CLIMATE VARIABILITY CLIMATE VARIABLES DAM DAMS DEMAND FOR ENERGY DOWNPOURS DRY SEASON ECONOMIC IMPACTS ELASTICITY ELECTRICITY ELECTRICITY GENERATION ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION EMISSIONS ENERGY STRATEGY ENERGY SUPPLY EVAPORATION EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FLOODS FLOW OF WATER FOSSIL FOSSIL FUEL GENERATION CAPACITY GLACIERS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL WARMING HEAD HEAT HEAT WAVES HIGHER ENERGY PRICES HYDRO ENERGY HYDRO POWER HYDRO POWER PROJECT HYDRO STATIONS HYDROLOGICAL DATA HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING HYDROLOGICAL INFORMATION HYDROLOGICAL MODEL HYDROLOGICAL MODELS HYDROLOGICAL RESOURCES HYDROLOGY HYDROPOWER HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT HYDROPOWER GENERATION HYDROPOWER PLANT HYDROPOWER PLANTS HYDROPOWER PROJECT HYDROPOWER PROJECTS HYDROPOWER STATION HYDROPOWER STATIONS INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC LAND USE LOAD FACTOR METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS PEAK LOAD PLANT OPERATION POTENTIAL IMPACTS POWER PLANTS PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OF ELECTRICITY RAIN RAINFALL RAINY SEASON RENEWABLE ENERGY RESERVOIR RESERVOIRS RIVER RIVER FLOW RIVER FLOWS RIVERS RUNOFF SEDIMENT SOIL TEMPERATURE TURBINE WATER CYCLE WATER FLOW WATER FLOWS WATER LEVEL WATER LEVELS WATER USE WEATHER Iimi, Atsushi Estimating Global Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Projects : Applications in India, Sri Lanka and Vietnam |
| geographic_facet |
South Asia East Asia and Pacific Vietnam India Sri Lanka |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4344 |
| description |
The world is faced with considerable
risk and uncertainty about climate change. Particular
attention has been paid increasingly to hydropower
generation in recent years because it is renewable energy.
However, hydropower is among the most vulnerable industries
to changes in global and regional climate. This paper aims
to examine the possibility of applying a simple vector
autoregressive model to forecast future hydrological series
and evaluate the resulting impact on hydropower projects.
Three projects are considered - in India, Sri Lanka, and
Vietnam. The results are still tentative in terms of both
methodology and implications; but the analysis shows that
the calibrated dynamic forecasts of hydrological series are
much different from the conventional reference points in the
90 percent dependable year. The paper also finds that
hydrological discharges tend to increase with rainfall and
decrease with temperature. The rainy season would likely
have higher water levels, but in the lean season water
resources would become even more limited. The amount of
energy generated would be affected to a certain extent, but
the project viability may not change so much. Comparing the
three cases, it is suggested that having larger installed
capacity and some storage capacity might be useful to
accommodate future hydrological series and seasonality. A
broader assessment will be called for at the project
preparation stage. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Iimi, Atsushi |
| author_facet |
Iimi, Atsushi |
| author_sort |
Iimi, Atsushi |
| title |
Estimating Global Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Projects : Applications in India, Sri Lanka and Vietnam |
| title_short |
Estimating Global Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Projects : Applications in India, Sri Lanka and Vietnam |
| title_full |
Estimating Global Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Projects : Applications in India, Sri Lanka and Vietnam |
| title_fullStr |
Estimating Global Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Projects : Applications in India, Sri Lanka and Vietnam |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating Global Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Projects : Applications in India, Sri Lanka and Vietnam |
| title_sort |
estimating global climate change impacts on hydropower projects : applications in india, sri lanka and vietnam |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/09/8267877/estimating-global-climate-change-impacts-hydropower-projects-applications-india-sri-lanka-vietnam-estimating-global-climate-change-impacts-hydropower-projects-applications-india-sri-lanka-vietnam http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7332 |
| _version_ |
1764402344749957120 |