Endogenous Irrigation : The Impact of Climate Change on Farmers in Africa
Previous Ricardian analyses of agriculture have either omitted irrigation or treated irrigation as though it is exogenous. In practice, it is a choice by farmers that is sensitive to climate. This paper develops a choice model of irrigation in the...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2012
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/07/7848144/endogenous-irrigation-impact-climate-change-farmers-africa http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7465 |
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okr-10986-74652021-04-23T14:02:33Z Endogenous Irrigation : The Impact of Climate Change on Farmers in Africa Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep Mendelsohn, Robert BASIN CLAY CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE IMPACTS CLIMATE SENSITIVITY CLIMATE VARIABLES CLOUDS DICHOTOMOUS CHOICE ELASTICITIES ELASTICITY ELECTRICITY EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS FARMS FORESTRY GLOBAL WARMING HYDROLOGY HYDROMETEOROLOGY INCOME IRRIGATION LABOR COSTS LAND ECONOMICS LAND SURFACE MEASUREMENTS METEOROLOGY NORMALS PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION QUANTITIES PRODUCTIVITY RAINFALL REGIONAL WATER RESOURCES SAND SATELLITES SCIENCES SILT SOIL SOILS SPRING SURFACE TEMPERATURE SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE CHANGE TEMPERATURE CHANGES TEMPERATURE DATA WAGES WATER RESOURCES WELFARE EFFECTS Previous Ricardian analyses of agriculture have either omitted irrigation or treated irrigation as though it is exogenous. In practice, it is a choice by farmers that is sensitive to climate. This paper develops a choice model of irrigation in the context of a Ricardian model of cropland. The authors examine how climate affects the decision to use irrigation and then how climate affects the net revenues of dryland and irrigated land. This Ricardian "selection" model, using a modified Heckman model, is then estimated across 8,400 farmers in Africa. The analysis explicitly models irrigation but controls for the endogeneity of irrigation. The authors find that the choice of irrigation is sensitive to both temperature and precipitation. Simulations of the welfare impacts of several climate scenarios demonstrate that a model which assumes irrigation is exogenous provides a biased estimate of the welfare effects of climate change. If dryland and irrigation are to be estimated separately in the Ricardian model, irrigation must be modeled endogenously. The results also indicate that African agriculture is sensitive to climate change. Many farmers in Africa will experience net revenue losses from warming. Irrigated farms, on the other hand, are more resilient to temperature change and, on the margin, are likely to realize slight gains in productivity. But any reduction in precipitation will be especially deleterious to dryland farmers, generally the poorest segment of the agriculture community. The results indicate that irrigation is an effective adaptation against loss of rainfall and higher temperatures provided there is sufficient water available. This will be an effective remedy in select regions of Africa with water. However, for many regions there is no available surface water, so that warming scenarios with reduced rainfall are particularly deleterious. 2012-06-07T20:26:34Z 2012-06-07T20:26:34Z 2007-07 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/07/7848144/endogenous-irrigation-impact-climate-change-farmers-africa http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7465 English Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4278 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Africa |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
BASIN CLAY CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE IMPACTS CLIMATE SENSITIVITY CLIMATE VARIABLES CLOUDS DICHOTOMOUS CHOICE ELASTICITIES ELASTICITY ELECTRICITY EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS FARMS FORESTRY GLOBAL WARMING HYDROLOGY HYDROMETEOROLOGY INCOME IRRIGATION LABOR COSTS LAND ECONOMICS LAND SURFACE MEASUREMENTS METEOROLOGY NORMALS PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION QUANTITIES PRODUCTIVITY RAINFALL REGIONAL WATER RESOURCES SAND SATELLITES SCIENCES SILT SOIL SOILS SPRING SURFACE TEMPERATURE SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE CHANGE TEMPERATURE CHANGES TEMPERATURE DATA WAGES WATER RESOURCES WELFARE EFFECTS |
| spellingShingle |
BASIN CLAY CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE IMPACTS CLIMATE SENSITIVITY CLIMATE VARIABLES CLOUDS DICHOTOMOUS CHOICE ELASTICITIES ELASTICITY ELECTRICITY EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS FARMS FORESTRY GLOBAL WARMING HYDROLOGY HYDROMETEOROLOGY INCOME IRRIGATION LABOR COSTS LAND ECONOMICS LAND SURFACE MEASUREMENTS METEOROLOGY NORMALS PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION QUANTITIES PRODUCTIVITY RAINFALL REGIONAL WATER RESOURCES SAND SATELLITES SCIENCES SILT SOIL SOILS SPRING SURFACE TEMPERATURE SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE CHANGE TEMPERATURE CHANGES TEMPERATURE DATA WAGES WATER RESOURCES WELFARE EFFECTS Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep Mendelsohn, Robert Endogenous Irrigation : The Impact of Climate Change on Farmers in Africa |
| geographic_facet |
Africa |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4278 |
| description |
Previous Ricardian analyses of
agriculture have either omitted irrigation or treated
irrigation as though it is exogenous. In practice, it is a
choice by farmers that is sensitive to climate. This paper
develops a choice model of irrigation in the context of a
Ricardian model of cropland. The authors examine how climate
affects the decision to use irrigation and then how climate
affects the net revenues of dryland and irrigated land. This
Ricardian "selection" model, using a modified
Heckman model, is then estimated across 8,400 farmers in
Africa. The analysis explicitly models irrigation but
controls for the endogeneity of irrigation. The authors find
that the choice of irrigation is sensitive to both
temperature and precipitation. Simulations of the welfare
impacts of several climate scenarios demonstrate that a
model which assumes irrigation is exogenous provides a
biased estimate of the welfare effects of climate change. If
dryland and irrigation are to be estimated separately in the
Ricardian model, irrigation must be modeled endogenously.
The results also indicate that African agriculture is
sensitive to climate change. Many farmers in Africa will
experience net revenue losses from warming. Irrigated farms,
on the other hand, are more resilient to temperature change
and, on the margin, are likely to realize slight gains in
productivity. But any reduction in precipitation will be
especially deleterious to dryland farmers, generally the
poorest segment of the agriculture community. The results
indicate that irrigation is an effective adaptation against
loss of rainfall and higher temperatures provided there is
sufficient water available. This will be an effective remedy
in select regions of Africa with water. However, for many
regions there is no available surface water, so that warming
scenarios with reduced rainfall are particularly deleterious. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep Mendelsohn, Robert |
| author_facet |
Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep Mendelsohn, Robert |
| author_sort |
Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep |
| title |
Endogenous Irrigation : The Impact of Climate Change on Farmers in Africa |
| title_short |
Endogenous Irrigation : The Impact of Climate Change on Farmers in Africa |
| title_full |
Endogenous Irrigation : The Impact of Climate Change on Farmers in Africa |
| title_fullStr |
Endogenous Irrigation : The Impact of Climate Change on Farmers in Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Endogenous Irrigation : The Impact of Climate Change on Farmers in Africa |
| title_sort |
endogenous irrigation : the impact of climate change on farmers in africa |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/07/7848144/endogenous-irrigation-impact-climate-change-farmers-africa http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7465 |
| _version_ |
1764402093626490880 |