A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on African Cropland
This study examines the impact of climate change on cropland in Africa. It is based on a survey of more than 9,000 farmers in 11 countries: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Niger, Senegal, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. T...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2012
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/08/8044103/ricardian-analysis-impact-climate-change-african-cropland http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7508 |
| Summary: | This study examines the impact of
climate change on cropland in Africa. It is based on a
survey of more than 9,000 farmers in 11 countries: Burkina
Faso, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Niger,
Senegal, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The study uses
a Ricardian cross-sectional approach in which net revenue is
regressed on climate, water flow, soil, and economic
variables. The results show that net revenues fall as
precipitation falls or as temperatures warm across all the
surveyed farms. In addition to examining all farms together,
the study examined dryland and irrigated farms separately.
Dryland farms are especially climate sensitive. Irrigated
farms have a positive immediate response to warming because
they are located in relatively cool parts of Africa. The
study also examined some simple climate scenarios to see how
Africa would respond to climate change. These uniform
scenarios assume that only one aspect of climate changes and
the change is uniform across all of Africa. In addition, the
study examined three climate change scenarios from
Atmospheric Oceanic General Circulation Models. These
scenarios predicted changes in climate in each country over
time. Not all countries are equally vulnerable to climate
change. First, the climate scenarios predict different
temperature and precipitation changes in each country.
Second, it is also important whether a country is already
hot and dry. Third, the extent to which farms are irrigated
is also important. |
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