More Growth or Fewer Collapses? A New Look at Long Run Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
Low and highly volatile growth define Africa's growth experience. But there is no evidence that growth volatility is associated to long term economic performance. This result may be misleading if it suggests that volatility is not important f...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2012
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/11/8665641/more-growth-or-fewer-collapses-new-look-long-run-growth-sub-saharan-africa http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7533 |
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okr-10986-75332021-04-23T14:02:34Z More Growth or Fewer Collapses? A New Look at Long Run Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa Arbache, Jorge Saba Page, John ACCOUNTABILITY ACTUAL GROWTH AGGREGATE LEVEL AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH RATE AVERAGE GROWTH RATES AVERAGE INCOME CAPITA INCOME GROWTH CONSUMER PRICE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CORRELATION ANALYSIS CORRELATION COEFFICIENT CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS CORRUPTION COUNTRY DATA COUNTRY LEVEL CROSS COUNTRY CROSS COUNTRY EVIDENCE DEPENDENT VARIABLE DETERMINANTS OF GROWTH DEVELOPING REGIONS DEVELOPMENT GOALS DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS DIRECT INVESTMENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ECONOMIC CONTRACTIONS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC LITERATURE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC REFORMS EFFECTS OF VOLATILITY EMPIRICAL STUDIES ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS EXCHANGE RATE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT GOOD GOVERNANCE GOVERNANCE INDICATOR GOVERNANCE INDICATORS GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS GROWTH ACCELERATIONS GROWTH PATH GROWTH PERFORMANCE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH SUCCESSES GROWTH VOLATILITY HEALTH OUTCOMES HIGH GROWTH HIGH INFLATION HIGHER VOLATILITY HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INCOME GROWTH INCOME PER CAPITA INFANT MORTALITY INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLES INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND LINK BETWEEN VOLATILITY LONG RUN MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT MEDIUM TERM MEDIUM TERM GROWTH NATIONAL ACCOUNTS NATURAL RESOURCES OIL EXPORTERS OVERALL RATE OF GROWTH PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME POLICY MAKERS POLICY RESEARCH POLITICAL CONDITIONS POLITICAL STABILITY POOR GOVERNANCE POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PRIVATE SECTOR PUBLIC POLICY PURCHASING POWER RAPID GROWTH RATE OF GROWTH REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE REGULATORY QUALITY RICH COUNTRIES RULE OF LAW SHARP REDUCTION SOCIAL OUTCOMES SOCIAL VARIABLES STAGNATION STRUCTURAL BREAK STRUCTURAL POLICIES SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUSTAINABLE GROWTH THE GAMBIA UNDER 5 MORTALITY Low and highly volatile growth define Africa's growth experience. But there is no evidence that growth volatility is associated to long term economic performance. This result may be misleading if it suggests that volatility is not important for economic and social progress. In this paper we use a variant of the method developed by Hausmann, Pritchett, and Rodrik (2005) to identify both growth acceleration and deceleration episodes in Africa between 1975 and 2005. The authors find that Africa has had numerous growth acceleration episodes in the last 30 years, but also nearly a comparable number of growth collapses, offsetting most of the benefits of growth. Had Africa avoided its growth collapses, it would have grown 1.7 percent a year instead of 0.7 percent, and its GDP per capita would have been more than 30 percent higher in 2005. The authors also find that growth accelerations and decelerations have an asymmetric impact on human development outcomes. Finally, our results suggest that it is easier to identify the likely institutional and policy origins of growth decelerations than of growth accelerations. 2012-06-08T15:51:51Z 2012-06-08T15:51:51Z 2007-11 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/11/8665641/more-growth-or-fewer-collapses-new-look-long-run-growth-sub-saharan-africa http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7533 English Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4384 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Africa |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
ACCOUNTABILITY ACTUAL GROWTH AGGREGATE LEVEL AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH RATE AVERAGE GROWTH RATES AVERAGE INCOME CAPITA INCOME GROWTH CONSUMER PRICE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CORRELATION ANALYSIS CORRELATION COEFFICIENT CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS CORRUPTION COUNTRY DATA COUNTRY LEVEL CROSS COUNTRY CROSS COUNTRY EVIDENCE DEPENDENT VARIABLE DETERMINANTS OF GROWTH DEVELOPING REGIONS DEVELOPMENT GOALS DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS DIRECT INVESTMENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ECONOMIC CONTRACTIONS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC LITERATURE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC REFORMS EFFECTS OF VOLATILITY EMPIRICAL STUDIES ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS EXCHANGE RATE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT GOOD GOVERNANCE GOVERNANCE INDICATOR GOVERNANCE INDICATORS GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS GROWTH ACCELERATIONS GROWTH PATH GROWTH PERFORMANCE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH SUCCESSES GROWTH VOLATILITY HEALTH OUTCOMES HIGH GROWTH HIGH INFLATION HIGHER VOLATILITY HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INCOME GROWTH INCOME PER CAPITA INFANT MORTALITY INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLES INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND LINK BETWEEN VOLATILITY LONG RUN MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT MEDIUM TERM MEDIUM TERM GROWTH NATIONAL ACCOUNTS NATURAL RESOURCES OIL EXPORTERS OVERALL RATE OF GROWTH PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME POLICY MAKERS POLICY RESEARCH POLITICAL CONDITIONS POLITICAL STABILITY POOR GOVERNANCE POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PRIVATE SECTOR PUBLIC POLICY PURCHASING POWER RAPID GROWTH RATE OF GROWTH REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE REGULATORY QUALITY RICH COUNTRIES RULE OF LAW SHARP REDUCTION SOCIAL OUTCOMES SOCIAL VARIABLES STAGNATION STRUCTURAL BREAK STRUCTURAL POLICIES SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUSTAINABLE GROWTH THE GAMBIA UNDER 5 MORTALITY |
| spellingShingle |
ACCOUNTABILITY ACTUAL GROWTH AGGREGATE LEVEL AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH RATE AVERAGE GROWTH RATES AVERAGE INCOME CAPITA INCOME GROWTH CONSUMER PRICE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CORRELATION ANALYSIS CORRELATION COEFFICIENT CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS CORRUPTION COUNTRY DATA COUNTRY LEVEL CROSS COUNTRY CROSS COUNTRY EVIDENCE DEPENDENT VARIABLE DETERMINANTS OF GROWTH DEVELOPING REGIONS DEVELOPMENT GOALS DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS DIRECT INVESTMENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ECONOMIC CONTRACTIONS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC LITERATURE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC REFORMS EFFECTS OF VOLATILITY EMPIRICAL STUDIES ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS EXCHANGE RATE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT GOOD GOVERNANCE GOVERNANCE INDICATOR GOVERNANCE INDICATORS GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS GROWTH ACCELERATIONS GROWTH PATH GROWTH PERFORMANCE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH SUCCESSES GROWTH VOLATILITY HEALTH OUTCOMES HIGH GROWTH HIGH INFLATION HIGHER VOLATILITY HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INCOME GROWTH INCOME PER CAPITA INFANT MORTALITY INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLES INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND LINK BETWEEN VOLATILITY LONG RUN MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT MEDIUM TERM MEDIUM TERM GROWTH NATIONAL ACCOUNTS NATURAL RESOURCES OIL EXPORTERS OVERALL RATE OF GROWTH PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME POLICY MAKERS POLICY RESEARCH POLITICAL CONDITIONS POLITICAL STABILITY POOR GOVERNANCE POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PRIVATE SECTOR PUBLIC POLICY PURCHASING POWER RAPID GROWTH RATE OF GROWTH REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE REGULATORY QUALITY RICH COUNTRIES RULE OF LAW SHARP REDUCTION SOCIAL OUTCOMES SOCIAL VARIABLES STAGNATION STRUCTURAL BREAK STRUCTURAL POLICIES SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUSTAINABLE GROWTH THE GAMBIA UNDER 5 MORTALITY Arbache, Jorge Saba Page, John More Growth or Fewer Collapses? A New Look at Long Run Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| geographic_facet |
Africa |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4384 |
| description |
Low and highly volatile growth define
Africa's growth experience. But there is no evidence
that growth volatility is associated to long term economic
performance. This result may be misleading if it suggests
that volatility is not important for economic and social
progress. In this paper we use a variant of the method
developed by Hausmann, Pritchett, and Rodrik (2005) to
identify both growth acceleration and deceleration episodes
in Africa between 1975 and 2005. The authors find that
Africa has had numerous growth acceleration episodes in the
last 30 years, but also nearly a comparable number of growth
collapses, offsetting most of the benefits of growth. Had
Africa avoided its growth collapses, it would have grown 1.7
percent a year instead of 0.7 percent, and its GDP per
capita would have been more than 30 percent higher in 2005.
The authors also find that growth accelerations and
decelerations have an asymmetric impact on human development
outcomes. Finally, our results suggest that it is easier to
identify the likely institutional and policy origins of
growth decelerations than of growth accelerations. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Arbache, Jorge Saba Page, John |
| author_facet |
Arbache, Jorge Saba Page, John |
| author_sort |
Arbache, Jorge Saba |
| title |
More Growth or Fewer Collapses? A New Look at Long Run Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_short |
More Growth or Fewer Collapses? A New Look at Long Run Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_full |
More Growth or Fewer Collapses? A New Look at Long Run Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_fullStr |
More Growth or Fewer Collapses? A New Look at Long Run Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed |
More Growth or Fewer Collapses? A New Look at Long Run Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_sort |
more growth or fewer collapses? a new look at long run growth in sub-saharan africa |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/11/8665641/more-growth-or-fewer-collapses-new-look-long-run-growth-sub-saharan-africa http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7533 |
| _version_ |
1764402469216976896 |