Challenges to MDG Achievement in Low Income Countries : Lessons from Ghana and Honduras

This paper summarizes the policy lessons from applications of the Maquette for MDG Simulations (MAMS) model to two low income countries: Ghana and Honduras. Results show that costs of MDGs achievement could reach 10-13 percent of GDP by 2015, altho...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Bussolo, Maurizio, Medvedev, Denis
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2012
Subjects:	ACCESS TO SAFE WATER ACCOUNTING AGGREGATE COSTS ALLOCATION ANNUAL GROWTH ANNUAL GROWTH RATE ANNUAL WAGE AVERAGE LEVEL BASELINE SCENARIO BASIC EDUCATION BASIC SERVICES BOND BOND ISSUES BORROWING BUDGET CONSTRAINTS BUDGET ENVELOPE CAPITAL SPENDING CHILD HEALTH CHILD MORTALITY CHILD MORTALITY RATE CHILD MORTALITY RATES COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM CONSUMERS CONSUMPTION GROWTH CONTRIBUTION CONTRIBUTIONS COST ESTIMATES COUNTRY SPECIFIC CURRENT PRICES DATA COLLECTION DEBT DEBT SUSTAINABILITY DEMAND FOR SERVICES DEPENDENT VARIABLE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES DISEASES DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS DOMESTIC BORROWING EARNINGS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICIES ECONOMIC SHOCKS EDUCATION SPENDING EDUCATIONAL SERVICES EMPIRICAL LITERATURE ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES ESTIMATED ELASTICITY EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES EXTERNAL DEBT FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY FOREIGN BORROWING FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN GRANTS FUTURE GROWTH FUTURE INCOME GENDER DISPARITY GENDER EQUALITY GENDER GAP GINI COEFFICIENT GOVERNMENT BUDGET GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT POLICIES GOVERNMENT SPENDING GROWTH COMPONENT GROWTH PERFORMANCE GROWTH RATES HEALTH EXPENDITURES HEALTH OUTCOMES HEALTH SECTOR HEALTH SERVICES HEALTH SPENDING HIGH GROWTH HIGH GROWTH RATE HOUSEHOLD WELFARE HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME GROWTH INCOME INEQUALITY INCOME LEVELS INCOMES INCREASING INEQUALITY INDEPENDENT VARIABLE INEQUALITY OUTCOMES INFANT INFANT MORTALITY INFANT MORTALITY RATE INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES INTEREST PAYMENTS INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY INVESTING KIDS LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LABOR SUPPLY LEVELS OF PRODUCTIVITY LIVE BIRTHS LOCAL CURRENCY LOW INCOME LOW-INCOME LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE MALARIA MARGINAL RETURNS MATERNAL MORTALITY MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE MATERNAL MORTALITY RATES MATH MEDICAL CARE MILLENNIUM DECLARATION MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS MINISTRY OF EDUCATION MINISTRY OF FINANCE MORTALITY NATIONAL AUTHORITIES PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME POLICY ALTERNATIVES POLICY IMPLICATIONS POLICY MAKERS POLICY RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER POOR COUNTRIES POOR HOUSEHOLDS POPULATION GROUPS POPULATION GROWTH PORTS POVERTY LINE POVERTY LINES POVERTY REDUCTION PRIMARY SCHOOL PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE SECTOR PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH PROGRESS PUBLIC PUBLIC BUDGET PUBLIC CONSUMPTION PUBLIC EDUCATION PUBLIC EXPENDITURE PUBLIC EXPENDITURE MANAGEMENT PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW PUBLIC EXPENDITURES PUBLIC HEALTH PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE PUBLIC POLICY PUBLIC PROVISION PUBLIC SAFETY NETS PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR EFFICIENCY PUBLIC SECTOR SERVICE DELIVERY PUBLIC SERVICE PUBLIC SERVICES PUBLIC SPENDING PURCHASING POWER QUALITY OF EDUCATION RATES OF GROWTH REAL EXCHANGE RATE RESOURCE NEEDS RESPECT RISING DEMAND ROADS RURAL AREAS SAFE WATER SAFETY NETS SANITATION SANITATION FACILITIES SANITATION SERVICES SAVINGS SCHOOL AGE SCHOOL FEES SECONDARY SCHOOL SECONDARY SCHOOLS SERVICE DELIVERY SERVICE PROVISION SKILLED WORKERS SLUM DWELLERS SOCIAL AFFAIRS SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL OUTCOMES SOCIAL SERVICE SOCIAL SERVICES SOCIAL SPENDING SPILLOVER SPILLOVER EFFECTS SUSTAINABLE ACCESS TAX TAX RATE TAXATION TERTIARY EDUCATION TOTAL COST TOTAL COSTS TOTAL PUBLIC SPENDING UNIVERSAL PRIMARY EDUCATION UNSKILLED LABOR UNSKILLED WORKERS URBAN AREAS WAGE WAGE DIFFERENTIALS WAGE GROWTH WAGES WORKFORCE WORLD TRADE YOUNG ADULTS YOUNG CHILDREN YOUNG PEOPLE
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/11/8665513/challenges-mdg-achievement-low-income-countries-lessons-ghana-honduras http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7544

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Summary:	This paper summarizes the policy lessons from applications of the Maquette for MDG Simulations (MAMS) model to two low income countries: Ghana and Honduras. Results show that costs of MDGs achievement could reach 10-13 percent of GDP by 2015, although, given the observed low productivity in the provision of social services, significant savings may be realized by improving efficiency. Sources of financing also matter: foreign aid inflows can reduce international competitiveness through real exchange appreciation, while domestic financing can crowd out the private sector and slow poverty reduction. Spending a large share of a fixed budget on growth-enhancing infrastructure may mean sacrificing some human development, even if higher growth is usually associated with lower costs of social services. The pursuit of MDGs increases demand for skills: while this encourages higher educational attainments, in the short term this could lead to increased income inequality and a lower poverty elasticity of growth.

Challenges to MDG Achievement in Low Income Countries : Lessons from Ghana and Honduras

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