Implications of WTO Agreements and Unilateral Trade Policy Reforms for Poverty in Bangladesh : Short versus Long-Run Impacts

The authors examine the effects of WTO agreements and domestic trade policy reforms on production, welfare, and poverty in Bangladesh. They use a sequential dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which takes into account accumulation effects, allowing for long-run analysis. The study is...

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Main Authors: Annabi, Nabil, Khondker, Bazlul, Raihan, Selim, Cockburn, John, Decaluwe, Bernard
Format: Policy Research Working Paper
Language:English
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2012
Subjects:
WTO
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2006/08/6951154/implications-wto-agreements-unilateral-trade-policy-reforms-poverty-bangladesh-short-versus-long-run-impacts
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/8370
id okr-10986-8370
recordtype oai_dc
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
topic ACCUMULATION RATE
AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT
AGRICULTURAL PRICES
AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
AGRICULTURAL SECTORS
AGRICULTURAL SUPPORT
AGRICULTURAL TRADE
AGRICULTURAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION
AGRICULTURE
AVERAGE TARIFF
BASKET OF GOODS
CAPITAL ACCUMULATION
CAPITAL INCREASE
CAPITAL STOCK
CHANGES IN POVERTY
COMMERCIAL CROPS
CONSTANT ELASTICITY OF TRANSFORMATION
CONSUMER PRICE
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
CONSUMER PRICE INDICES
CONSUMER PRICES
CONSUMERS
CONSUMPTION LEVELS
COST OF LIVING
COTTON PRODUCTION
COUNTERFACTUAL
CURRENCY
CURRENT ACCOUNT
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
DEBT
DEMAND CURVE
DEMAND FUNCTION
DEVALUATION
DIVIDENDS
DOMESTIC DEMAND
DOMESTIC MARKET
DOMESTIC PRICE OF IMPORTS
DOMESTIC PRICES
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMIC POLICIES
ELASTICITY
ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES
EXCHANGE RATE REGIME
EXPENDITURE
EXPORT GROWTH
EXPORT MARKET
EXPORT ORIENTATION
EXPORT PRICES
EXPORT SUBSIDIES
EXPORT TAXES
EXPORTS
EXTERNAL TRADE
FACTOR MARKETS
FACTORS OF PRODUCTION
FARMERS
FOOD GRAINS
FOOD PRICES
FOOD PROCESSING
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
FREE TRADE
FULL LIBERALIZATION
FULL TRADE LIBERALIZATION
GLOBAL FREE TRADE
GLOBAL TRADE
GROWTH RATE
HOUSEHOLD HEAD
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
HOUSEHOLD WELFARE
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
IMPERFECT SUBSTITUTES
IMPORT COMPETITION
IMPORT DUTY
IMPORT PENETRATION
IMPORT PRICES
INCOME
INCOME EFFECTS
INCOME GAINS
INCOME SHARES
INCOME TAXES
INEQUALITY
INTENSIVE AGRICULTURE
INTERNATIONAL MARKET
LANDLESS HOUSEHOLDS
LOST TARIFF REVENUES
MARKETING
NATIONAL INCOME
NOMINAL INCOME
OPTIMIZATION
POOR
POOR HOUSEHOLDS
POORER HOUSEHOLD
POORER HOUSEHOLDS
POSITIVE EFFECTS
POVERTY ANALYSIS
POVERTY GAP
POVERTY IMPACT
POVERTY INDICES
POVERTY LINE
POVERTY LINES
POVERTY MEASURES
POVERTY PROFILE
POVERTY RATES
POVERTY REDUCTION
PRICE INCREASES
QUANTITATIVE RESTRICTIONS
REAL GDP
REAL INTEREST RATE
RURAL
RURAL AREAS
RURAL HOUSEHOLDS
RURAL INCOMES
SALES
SAVINGS
SMALL FARMER
SMALL FARMERS
STOCKS
SUBSTITUTE
SUBSTITUTION
TARIFF RATE
TARIFF RATES
TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER
TERMS OF TRADE
TEXTILE IMPORTS
TRADE LIBERALIZATION
TRADE MODELS
TRADE POLICIES
TRADE POLICY
TRANSFERS
UNILATERAL TRADE
UNILATERAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION
UNILATERAL TRADE POLICY
UNSKILLED LABOR
UNSKILLED WORKERS
URUGUAY ROUND
UTILITY FUNCTION
VALUE ADDED
WAGE RATES
WAGES
WELFARE GAINS
WELFARE IMPACTS
WELFARE LOSSES
WORLD MARKET
WORLD PRICES
WORLD TRADE
WTO
spellingShingle ACCUMULATION RATE
AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT
AGRICULTURAL PRICES
AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
AGRICULTURAL SECTORS
AGRICULTURAL SUPPORT
AGRICULTURAL TRADE
AGRICULTURAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION
AGRICULTURE
AVERAGE TARIFF
BASKET OF GOODS
CAPITAL ACCUMULATION
CAPITAL INCREASE
CAPITAL STOCK
CHANGES IN POVERTY
COMMERCIAL CROPS
CONSTANT ELASTICITY OF TRANSFORMATION
CONSUMER PRICE
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
CONSUMER PRICE INDICES
CONSUMER PRICES
CONSUMERS
CONSUMPTION LEVELS
COST OF LIVING
COTTON PRODUCTION
COUNTERFACTUAL
CURRENCY
CURRENT ACCOUNT
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
DEBT
DEMAND CURVE
DEMAND FUNCTION
DEVALUATION
DIVIDENDS
DOMESTIC DEMAND
DOMESTIC MARKET
DOMESTIC PRICE OF IMPORTS
DOMESTIC PRICES
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMIC POLICIES
ELASTICITY
ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES
EXCHANGE RATE REGIME
EXPENDITURE
EXPORT GROWTH
EXPORT MARKET
EXPORT ORIENTATION
EXPORT PRICES
EXPORT SUBSIDIES
EXPORT TAXES
EXPORTS
EXTERNAL TRADE
FACTOR MARKETS
FACTORS OF PRODUCTION
FARMERS
FOOD GRAINS
FOOD PRICES
FOOD PROCESSING
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
FREE TRADE
FULL LIBERALIZATION
FULL TRADE LIBERALIZATION
GLOBAL FREE TRADE
GLOBAL TRADE
GROWTH RATE
HOUSEHOLD HEAD
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
HOUSEHOLD WELFARE
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
IMPERFECT SUBSTITUTES
IMPORT COMPETITION
IMPORT DUTY
IMPORT PENETRATION
IMPORT PRICES
INCOME
INCOME EFFECTS
INCOME GAINS
INCOME SHARES
INCOME TAXES
INEQUALITY
INTENSIVE AGRICULTURE
INTERNATIONAL MARKET
LANDLESS HOUSEHOLDS
LOST TARIFF REVENUES
MARKETING
NATIONAL INCOME
NOMINAL INCOME
OPTIMIZATION
POOR
POOR HOUSEHOLDS
POORER HOUSEHOLD
POORER HOUSEHOLDS
POSITIVE EFFECTS
POVERTY ANALYSIS
POVERTY GAP
POVERTY IMPACT
POVERTY INDICES
POVERTY LINE
POVERTY LINES
POVERTY MEASURES
POVERTY PROFILE
POVERTY RATES
POVERTY REDUCTION
PRICE INCREASES
QUANTITATIVE RESTRICTIONS
REAL GDP
REAL INTEREST RATE
RURAL
RURAL AREAS
RURAL HOUSEHOLDS
RURAL INCOMES
SALES
SAVINGS
SMALL FARMER
SMALL FARMERS
STOCKS
SUBSTITUTE
SUBSTITUTION
TARIFF RATE
TARIFF RATES
TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER
TERMS OF TRADE
TEXTILE IMPORTS
TRADE LIBERALIZATION
TRADE MODELS
TRADE POLICIES
TRADE POLICY
TRANSFERS
UNILATERAL TRADE
UNILATERAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION
UNILATERAL TRADE POLICY
UNSKILLED LABOR
UNSKILLED WORKERS
URUGUAY ROUND
UTILITY FUNCTION
VALUE ADDED
WAGE RATES
WAGES
WELFARE GAINS
WELFARE IMPACTS
WELFARE LOSSES
WORLD MARKET
WORLD PRICES
WORLD TRADE
WTO
Annabi, Nabil
Khondker, Bazlul
Raihan, Selim
Cockburn, John
Decaluwe, Bernard
Implications of WTO Agreements and Unilateral Trade Policy Reforms for Poverty in Bangladesh : Short versus Long-Run Impacts
geographic_facet South Asia
Bangladesh
relation Policy Research Working Paper; No. 3976
description The authors examine the effects of WTO agreements and domestic trade policy reforms on production, welfare, and poverty in Bangladesh. They use a sequential dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which takes into account accumulation effects, allowing for long-run analysis. The study is based on the 2000 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Bangladesh including 15 production sectors, four factors of production (skilled and unskilled labor, agricultural and nonagricultural capital), and nine household groups (five in rural areas and four in urban areas). To examine the link between the macroeconomic effects and microeconomic effects in terms of poverty, the authors use the representative household approach with actual intra-group income distributions. The study presents five simulations for which the major findings are: (1) The Doha scenario has negative implications for the overall macroeconomy, household welfare, and poverty in Bangladesh. Terms of trade deteriorate and consumer prices, particularly food prices, increase more than nominal incomes, especially among poor households. (2) Free world trade has similar, but larger, impacts. (3) Domestic trade liberalization induces an expansion of agricultural and light manufacturing sectors, favorable changes in the domestic terms of trade. Although the short-run welfare and poverty impacts are negative, these turn positive in the long run when capital has adjusted through new investments. Rising unskilled wage rates make the poorest households the biggest winners in terms of welfare and poverty reduction. (4) Domestic liberalization effects far outweigh those of free world trade when these scenarios are combined. (5) Remittances constitute a powerful poverty-reducing tool given their greater importance in the income of the poor.
format Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author Annabi, Nabil
Khondker, Bazlul
Raihan, Selim
Cockburn, John
Decaluwe, Bernard
author_facet Annabi, Nabil
Khondker, Bazlul
Raihan, Selim
Cockburn, John
Decaluwe, Bernard
author_sort Annabi, Nabil
title Implications of WTO Agreements and Unilateral Trade Policy Reforms for Poverty in Bangladesh : Short versus Long-Run Impacts
title_short Implications of WTO Agreements and Unilateral Trade Policy Reforms for Poverty in Bangladesh : Short versus Long-Run Impacts
title_full Implications of WTO Agreements and Unilateral Trade Policy Reforms for Poverty in Bangladesh : Short versus Long-Run Impacts
title_fullStr Implications of WTO Agreements and Unilateral Trade Policy Reforms for Poverty in Bangladesh : Short versus Long-Run Impacts
title_full_unstemmed Implications of WTO Agreements and Unilateral Trade Policy Reforms for Poverty in Bangladesh : Short versus Long-Run Impacts
title_sort implications of wto agreements and unilateral trade policy reforms for poverty in bangladesh : short versus long-run impacts
publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate 2012
url http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2006/08/6951154/implications-wto-agreements-unilateral-trade-policy-reforms-poverty-bangladesh-short-versus-long-run-impacts
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/8370
_version_ 1764406336128286720
spelling okr-10986-83702021-04-23T14:02:41Z Implications of WTO Agreements and Unilateral Trade Policy Reforms for Poverty in Bangladesh : Short versus Long-Run Impacts Annabi, Nabil Khondker, Bazlul Raihan, Selim Cockburn, John Decaluwe, Bernard ACCUMULATION RATE AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURAL PRICES AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AGRICULTURAL SECTORS AGRICULTURAL SUPPORT AGRICULTURAL TRADE AGRICULTURAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION AGRICULTURE AVERAGE TARIFF BASKET OF GOODS CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL INCREASE CAPITAL STOCK CHANGES IN POVERTY COMMERCIAL CROPS CONSTANT ELASTICITY OF TRANSFORMATION CONSUMER PRICE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMER PRICE INDICES CONSUMER PRICES CONSUMERS CONSUMPTION LEVELS COST OF LIVING COTTON PRODUCTION COUNTERFACTUAL CURRENCY CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE DEBT DEMAND CURVE DEMAND FUNCTION DEVALUATION DIVIDENDS DOMESTIC DEMAND DOMESTIC MARKET DOMESTIC PRICE OF IMPORTS DOMESTIC PRICES ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICIES ELASTICITY ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES EXCHANGE RATE REGIME EXPENDITURE EXPORT GROWTH EXPORT MARKET EXPORT ORIENTATION EXPORT PRICES EXPORT SUBSIDIES EXPORT TAXES EXPORTS EXTERNAL TRADE FACTOR MARKETS FACTORS OF PRODUCTION FARMERS FOOD GRAINS FOOD PRICES FOOD PROCESSING FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN EXCHANGE FREE TRADE FULL LIBERALIZATION FULL TRADE LIBERALIZATION GLOBAL FREE TRADE GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH RATE HOUSEHOLD HEAD HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HOUSEHOLD WELFARE HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMPERFECT SUBSTITUTES IMPORT COMPETITION IMPORT DUTY IMPORT PENETRATION IMPORT PRICES INCOME INCOME EFFECTS INCOME GAINS INCOME SHARES INCOME TAXES INEQUALITY INTENSIVE AGRICULTURE INTERNATIONAL MARKET LANDLESS HOUSEHOLDS LOST TARIFF REVENUES MARKETING NATIONAL INCOME NOMINAL INCOME OPTIMIZATION POOR POOR HOUSEHOLDS POORER HOUSEHOLD POORER HOUSEHOLDS POSITIVE EFFECTS POVERTY ANALYSIS POVERTY GAP POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY INDICES POVERTY LINE POVERTY LINES POVERTY MEASURES POVERTY PROFILE POVERTY RATES POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE INCREASES QUANTITATIVE RESTRICTIONS REAL GDP REAL INTEREST RATE RURAL RURAL AREAS RURAL HOUSEHOLDS RURAL INCOMES SALES SAVINGS SMALL FARMER SMALL FARMERS STOCKS SUBSTITUTE SUBSTITUTION TARIFF RATE TARIFF RATES TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER TERMS OF TRADE TEXTILE IMPORTS TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE MODELS TRADE POLICIES TRADE POLICY TRANSFERS UNILATERAL TRADE UNILATERAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION UNILATERAL TRADE POLICY UNSKILLED LABOR UNSKILLED WORKERS URUGUAY ROUND UTILITY FUNCTION VALUE ADDED WAGE RATES WAGES WELFARE GAINS WELFARE IMPACTS WELFARE LOSSES WORLD MARKET WORLD PRICES WORLD TRADE WTO The authors examine the effects of WTO agreements and domestic trade policy reforms on production, welfare, and poverty in Bangladesh. They use a sequential dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which takes into account accumulation effects, allowing for long-run analysis. The study is based on the 2000 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Bangladesh including 15 production sectors, four factors of production (skilled and unskilled labor, agricultural and nonagricultural capital), and nine household groups (five in rural areas and four in urban areas). To examine the link between the macroeconomic effects and microeconomic effects in terms of poverty, the authors use the representative household approach with actual intra-group income distributions. The study presents five simulations for which the major findings are: (1) The Doha scenario has negative implications for the overall macroeconomy, household welfare, and poverty in Bangladesh. Terms of trade deteriorate and consumer prices, particularly food prices, increase more than nominal incomes, especially among poor households. (2) Free world trade has similar, but larger, impacts. (3) Domestic trade liberalization induces an expansion of agricultural and light manufacturing sectors, favorable changes in the domestic terms of trade. Although the short-run welfare and poverty impacts are negative, these turn positive in the long run when capital has adjusted through new investments. Rising unskilled wage rates make the poorest households the biggest winners in terms of welfare and poverty reduction. (4) Domestic liberalization effects far outweigh those of free world trade when these scenarios are combined. (5) Remittances constitute a powerful poverty-reducing tool given their greater importance in the income of the poor. 2012-06-18T21:33:22Z 2012-06-18T21:33:22Z 2006-08 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2006/08/6951154/implications-wto-agreements-unilateral-trade-policy-reforms-poverty-bangladesh-short-versus-long-run-impacts http://hdl.handle.net/10986/8370 English Policy Research Working Paper; No. 3976 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research South Asia Bangladesh