Why Have Traffic Fatalities Declined in Industrialized Countries? Implications for Pedestrians and Vehicle Occupants

This paper examines whether the relationship between traffic fatalities and per capita income is the same for different classes of road users and investigates the factors underlying the decline in fatalities per vehicle kilometer traveled (VKT) observed in high-income countries over recent decades....

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Main Authors:	Kopits, Elizabeth, Cropper, Maureen
Format:	Publications & Research
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2012
Subjects:	ACCIDENT ACCIDENT RATES ACCIDENTS ALCOHOL ABUSE ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION BICYCLISTS COLLISIONS CONGESTION CRASHES CRASHWORTHINESS DRIVER EDUCATION DRIVERS DRIVING DRIVING AGE DRIVING BEHAVIOR DRIVING EXPERIENCE DRIVING SPEED DRUNK DRIVING EMERGENCY MEDICAL CARE EMERGENCY MEDICAL SERVICES EQUATIONS FATAL ACCIDENTS FATALITIES HIGHWAY HIGHWAYS INCOME MOTOR VEHICLE MOTOR VEHICLE FLEET MOTOR VEHICLES MOTORCYCLE MOTORIZATION INCREASES MOTORIZATION RATE MOTORIZED ROAD USERS MOTORWAYS PEDESTRIAN PEDESTRIAN ACCIDENTS PEDESTRIAN SAFETY PEDESTRIANS RANGE ROAD CONDITIONS ROAD DEATHS ROAD DESIGN ROAD IMPROVEMENTS ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE ROAD LENGTH ROAD MAINTENANCE ROAD NETWORK ROAD NETWORKS ROAD SAFETY ROAD TRAFFIC ROAD USER ROAD USERS ROADS ROUTE ROUTES SAFER ROAD SAFER ROADS SAFETY DEVICES SAFETY FEATURES SINGLE VEHICLE ACCIDENTS SPEED TRAFFIC TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS URBAN AREAS VEHICLE FLEETS VEHICLE OCCUPANTS VEHICLE SAFETY VEHICLE STOCK VEHICLES VULNERABLE ROAD USERS
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/08/6200525/traffic-fatalities-declined-industrialized-countries-implications-pedestrians-vehicle-occupants http://hdl.handle.net/10986/8626

id	okr-10986-8626
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-86262021-04-23T14:02:43Z Why Have Traffic Fatalities Declined in Industrialized Countries? Implications for Pedestrians and Vehicle Occupants Kopits, Elizabeth Cropper, Maureen ACCIDENT ACCIDENT RATES ACCIDENTS ALCOHOL ABUSE ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION BICYCLISTS COLLISIONS CONGESTION CRASHES CRASHWORTHINESS DRIVER EDUCATION DRIVERS DRIVING DRIVING AGE DRIVING BEHAVIOR DRIVING EXPERIENCE DRIVING SPEED DRUNK DRIVING EMERGENCY MEDICAL CARE EMERGENCY MEDICAL SERVICES EQUATIONS FATAL ACCIDENTS FATALITIES HIGHWAY HIGHWAYS INCOME MOTOR VEHICLE MOTOR VEHICLE FLEET MOTOR VEHICLES MOTORCYCLE MOTORIZATION INCREASES MOTORIZATION RATE MOTORIZED ROAD USERS MOTORWAYS PEDESTRIAN PEDESTRIAN ACCIDENTS PEDESTRIAN SAFETY PEDESTRIANS RANGE ROAD CONDITIONS ROAD DEATHS ROAD DESIGN ROAD IMPROVEMENTS ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE ROAD LENGTH ROAD MAINTENANCE ROAD NETWORK ROAD NETWORKS ROAD SAFETY ROAD TRAFFIC ROAD USER ROAD USERS ROADS ROUTE ROUTES SAFER ROAD SAFER ROADS SAFETY DEVICES SAFETY FEATURES SINGLE VEHICLE ACCIDENTS SPEED TRAFFIC TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS URBAN AREAS VEHICLE FLEETS VEHICLE OCCUPANTS VEHICLE SAFETY VEHICLE STOCK VEHICLES VULNERABLE ROAD USERS This paper examines whether the relationship between traffic fatalities and per capita income is the same for different classes of road users and investigates the factors underlying the decline in fatalities per vehicle kilometer traveled (VKT) observed in high-income countries over recent decades. Formal models of traffic fatalities are developed for vehicle occupants and pedestrians. Reduced-form approximations to these models are estimated using panel data for 32 high-income countries over 1964-2002. The results suggest that the downward-sloping portion of the curve relating traffic fatalities per capita to per capita income is due primarily to improved pedestrian safety. The more detailed models shed light on some factors influencing pedestrian fatalities per VKT, but much of the reduction in pedestrian fatalities remains unexplained. Increased motorization and a reduction in the proportion of young drivers in the population, however, clearly played a role. In contrast to pedestrian fatalities, occupant fatalities do not show a significant decline with income. What does explain declines in occupant fatalities per VKT are reductions in alcohol abuse and improved medical services, and a reduction in young drivers. The importance of demographic factors suggests that in countries where young persons (between 15 and 24 years of age) comprise an increasing share of the driving population, adopting policies to improve young driver education and reduce speeds will be crucial. 2012-06-21T14:33:36Z 2012-06-21T14:33:36Z 2005-08 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/08/6200525/traffic-fatalities-declined-industrialized-countries-implications-pedestrians-vehicle-occupants http://hdl.handle.net/10986/8626 English Policy Research Working Paper; No. 3678 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	ACCIDENT ACCIDENT RATES ACCIDENTS ALCOHOL ABUSE ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION BICYCLISTS COLLISIONS CONGESTION CRASHES CRASHWORTHINESS DRIVER EDUCATION DRIVERS DRIVING DRIVING AGE DRIVING BEHAVIOR DRIVING EXPERIENCE DRIVING SPEED DRUNK DRIVING EMERGENCY MEDICAL CARE EMERGENCY MEDICAL SERVICES EQUATIONS FATAL ACCIDENTS FATALITIES HIGHWAY HIGHWAYS INCOME MOTOR VEHICLE MOTOR VEHICLE FLEET MOTOR VEHICLES MOTORCYCLE MOTORIZATION INCREASES MOTORIZATION RATE MOTORIZED ROAD USERS MOTORWAYS PEDESTRIAN PEDESTRIAN ACCIDENTS PEDESTRIAN SAFETY PEDESTRIANS RANGE ROAD CONDITIONS ROAD DEATHS ROAD DESIGN ROAD IMPROVEMENTS ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE ROAD LENGTH ROAD MAINTENANCE ROAD NETWORK ROAD NETWORKS ROAD SAFETY ROAD TRAFFIC ROAD USER ROAD USERS ROADS ROUTE ROUTES SAFER ROAD SAFER ROADS SAFETY DEVICES SAFETY FEATURES SINGLE VEHICLE ACCIDENTS SPEED TRAFFIC TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS URBAN AREAS VEHICLE FLEETS VEHICLE OCCUPANTS VEHICLE SAFETY VEHICLE STOCK VEHICLES VULNERABLE ROAD USERS
spellingShingle	ACCIDENT ACCIDENT RATES ACCIDENTS ALCOHOL ABUSE ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION BICYCLISTS COLLISIONS CONGESTION CRASHES CRASHWORTHINESS DRIVER EDUCATION DRIVERS DRIVING DRIVING AGE DRIVING BEHAVIOR DRIVING EXPERIENCE DRIVING SPEED DRUNK DRIVING EMERGENCY MEDICAL CARE EMERGENCY MEDICAL SERVICES EQUATIONS FATAL ACCIDENTS FATALITIES HIGHWAY HIGHWAYS INCOME MOTOR VEHICLE MOTOR VEHICLE FLEET MOTOR VEHICLES MOTORCYCLE MOTORIZATION INCREASES MOTORIZATION RATE MOTORIZED ROAD USERS MOTORWAYS PEDESTRIAN PEDESTRIAN ACCIDENTS PEDESTRIAN SAFETY PEDESTRIANS RANGE ROAD CONDITIONS ROAD DEATHS ROAD DESIGN ROAD IMPROVEMENTS ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE ROAD LENGTH ROAD MAINTENANCE ROAD NETWORK ROAD NETWORKS ROAD SAFETY ROAD TRAFFIC ROAD USER ROAD USERS ROADS ROUTE ROUTES SAFER ROAD SAFER ROADS SAFETY DEVICES SAFETY FEATURES SINGLE VEHICLE ACCIDENTS SPEED TRAFFIC TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS URBAN AREAS VEHICLE FLEETS VEHICLE OCCUPANTS VEHICLE SAFETY VEHICLE STOCK VEHICLES VULNERABLE ROAD USERS Kopits, Elizabeth Cropper, Maureen Why Have Traffic Fatalities Declined in Industrialized Countries? Implications for Pedestrians and Vehicle Occupants
relation	Policy Research Working Paper; No. 3678
description	This paper examines whether the relationship between traffic fatalities and per capita income is the same for different classes of road users and investigates the factors underlying the decline in fatalities per vehicle kilometer traveled (VKT) observed in high-income countries over recent decades. Formal models of traffic fatalities are developed for vehicle occupants and pedestrians. Reduced-form approximations to these models are estimated using panel data for 32 high-income countries over 1964-2002. The results suggest that the downward-sloping portion of the curve relating traffic fatalities per capita to per capita income is due primarily to improved pedestrian safety. The more detailed models shed light on some factors influencing pedestrian fatalities per VKT, but much of the reduction in pedestrian fatalities remains unexplained. Increased motorization and a reduction in the proportion of young drivers in the population, however, clearly played a role. In contrast to pedestrian fatalities, occupant fatalities do not show a significant decline with income. What does explain declines in occupant fatalities per VKT are reductions in alcohol abuse and improved medical services, and a reduction in young drivers. The importance of demographic factors suggests that in countries where young persons (between 15 and 24 years of age) comprise an increasing share of the driving population, adopting policies to improve young driver education and reduce speeds will be crucial.
format	Publications & Research
author	Kopits, Elizabeth Cropper, Maureen
author_facet	Kopits, Elizabeth Cropper, Maureen
author_sort	Kopits, Elizabeth
title	Why Have Traffic Fatalities Declined in Industrialized Countries? Implications for Pedestrians and Vehicle Occupants
title_short	Why Have Traffic Fatalities Declined in Industrialized Countries? Implications for Pedestrians and Vehicle Occupants
title_full	Why Have Traffic Fatalities Declined in Industrialized Countries? Implications for Pedestrians and Vehicle Occupants
title_fullStr	Why Have Traffic Fatalities Declined in Industrialized Countries? Implications for Pedestrians and Vehicle Occupants
title_full_unstemmed	Why Have Traffic Fatalities Declined in Industrialized Countries? Implications for Pedestrians and Vehicle Occupants
title_sort	why have traffic fatalities declined in industrialized countries? implications for pedestrians and vehicle occupants
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2012
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/08/6200525/traffic-fatalities-declined-industrialized-countries-implications-pedestrians-vehicle-occupants http://hdl.handle.net/10986/8626
_version_	1764407664677224448

Why Have Traffic Fatalities Declined in Industrialized Countries? Implications for Pedestrians and Vehicle Occupants

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