Value-at-risk modelling for the Malaysian stock exchange based on Monte Carlo simulation / Zatul Karamah Haji Ahmad Baharul-Ulum

Value-at-risk modelling for the Malaysian stock exchange based on Monte Carlo simulation / Zatul Karamah Haji Ahmad Baharul-Ulum

This study puts forward Value-at-Risk (VaR) models based on Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) that are integrated with several volatility representations to estimate the market risk for seven non-financial sectors traded on the first board of the Malaysian stock exchange which is now known as Bursa Malay...

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Main Author: Haji Ahmad Baharul-Ulum, Zatul Karamah
Format: Thesis
Language:English
Published: 2008
Subjects:
Financial management. Business finance. Corporation finance
Online Access:http://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/15518/
http://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/15518/1/TP_ZATUL%20KARAMAH%20AHMAD%20BAHARUL-ULUM%20BM%2008_5.PDF
id uitm-15518
recordtype eprints
spelling uitm-155182016-11-18T04:33:45Z http://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/15518/ Value-at-risk modelling for the Malaysian stock exchange based on Monte Carlo simulation / Zatul Karamah Haji Ahmad Baharul-Ulum Haji Ahmad Baharul-Ulum, Zatul Karamah Financial management. Business finance. Corporation finance This study puts forward Value-at-Risk (VaR) models based on Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) that are integrated with several volatility representations to estimate the market risk for seven non-financial sectors traded on the first board of the Malaysian stock exchange which is now known as Bursa Malaysia. In a sample over the years from 1993 until 2004 for construction, consumer product, industrial product, plantation, property, trade and services and mining sectors, the expected maximum losses were quantified for 1-day, 10-days and 25-days at 95% and 99% confidence levels. While the mining sector gave the highest expected value of VaR in all parameter settings, the plantation sector delivered the minimum value of VaR in most circumstances. Next, in a two-year out-of-sample group covering 2005 to 2006, the performance of the RiskMetrics EWMA and GARCH-based models was assessed from three different perspectives; conservatism, accuracy and efficiency. Although mixed results were observed, the study provides some indications of the applicability of some VaR models for the sectors involved besides confirming that data and computational choices affect risk measurement qualities. Under conservatism tests, the GARCH-based models were the most conservative model at both the 95% and 99% levels of confidence of Mean Relative Bias and Root Mean Squared Relative Bias in the single variable cases, while the t-distributed EGARCH delivered good results in multiple variables circumstances. For accuracy performances, tests conducted using Kupiec’s and Christoffersen’s provided evidence that almost every model was found to be accurate for all sets of occurrence. However, using Lopez test, which takes into consideration the magnitude of the impact of exceptions, models with the highest accuracy rate for multiple variables and most of the sectors studied under single variable were the MCS2+EGARCHn and MCSi+GARCHt respectively. In measuring efficiency, restricted to the confidence levels, the t-distributed models were identified as the best representative to track movements in true risk exposure for single variable while MCS2+EGARCHn for multiple variables conditions. As such, this study indicates that a consideration of fat-tails and asymmetries are crucial issues when deciding to estimate VaR in managing financial risk. 2008 Thesis NonPeerReviewed text en http://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/15518/1/TP_ZATUL%20KARAMAH%20AHMAD%20BAHARUL-ULUM%20BM%2008_5.PDF Haji Ahmad Baharul-Ulum, Zatul Karamah (2008) Value-at-risk modelling for the Malaysian stock exchange based on Monte Carlo simulation / Zatul Karamah Haji Ahmad Baharul-Ulum. PhD thesis, Universiti Teknologi MARA.
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Local University
institution Universiti Teknologi MARA
building UiTM Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
language English
topic Financial management. Business finance. Corporation finance
spellingShingle Financial management. Business finance. Corporation finance
Haji Ahmad Baharul-Ulum, Zatul Karamah
Value-at-risk modelling for the Malaysian stock exchange based on Monte Carlo simulation / Zatul Karamah Haji Ahmad Baharul-Ulum
description This study puts forward Value-at-Risk (VaR) models based on Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) that are integrated with several volatility representations to estimate the market risk for seven non-financial sectors traded on the first board of the Malaysian stock exchange which is now known as Bursa Malaysia. In a sample over the years from 1993 until 2004 for construction, consumer product, industrial product, plantation, property, trade and services and mining sectors, the expected maximum losses were quantified for 1-day, 10-days and 25-days at 95% and 99% confidence levels. While the mining sector gave the highest expected value of VaR in all parameter settings, the plantation sector delivered the minimum value of VaR in most circumstances. Next, in a two-year out-of-sample group covering 2005 to 2006, the performance of the RiskMetrics EWMA and GARCH-based models was assessed from three different perspectives; conservatism, accuracy and efficiency. Although mixed results were observed, the study provides some indications of the applicability of some VaR models for the sectors involved besides confirming that data and computational choices affect risk measurement qualities. Under conservatism tests, the GARCH-based models were the most conservative model at both the 95% and 99% levels of confidence of Mean Relative Bias and Root Mean Squared Relative Bias in the single variable cases, while the t-distributed EGARCH delivered good results in multiple variables circumstances. For accuracy performances, tests conducted using Kupiec’s and Christoffersen’s provided evidence that almost every model was found to be accurate for all sets of occurrence. However, using Lopez test, which takes into consideration the magnitude of the impact of exceptions, models with the highest accuracy rate for multiple variables and most of the sectors studied under single variable were the MCS2+EGARCHn and MCSi+GARCHt respectively. In measuring efficiency, restricted to the confidence levels, the t-distributed models were identified as the best representative to track movements in true risk exposure for single variable while MCS2+EGARCHn for multiple variables conditions. As such, this study indicates that a consideration of fat-tails and asymmetries are crucial issues when deciding to estimate VaR in managing financial risk.
format Thesis
author Haji Ahmad Baharul-Ulum, Zatul Karamah
author_facet Haji Ahmad Baharul-Ulum, Zatul Karamah
author_sort Haji Ahmad Baharul-Ulum, Zatul Karamah
title Value-at-risk modelling for the Malaysian stock exchange based on Monte Carlo simulation / Zatul Karamah Haji Ahmad Baharul-Ulum
title_short Value-at-risk modelling for the Malaysian stock exchange based on Monte Carlo simulation / Zatul Karamah Haji Ahmad Baharul-Ulum
title_full Value-at-risk modelling for the Malaysian stock exchange based on Monte Carlo simulation / Zatul Karamah Haji Ahmad Baharul-Ulum
title_fullStr Value-at-risk modelling for the Malaysian stock exchange based on Monte Carlo simulation / Zatul Karamah Haji Ahmad Baharul-Ulum
title_full_unstemmed Value-at-risk modelling for the Malaysian stock exchange based on Monte Carlo simulation / Zatul Karamah Haji Ahmad Baharul-Ulum
title_sort value-at-risk modelling for the malaysian stock exchange based on monte carlo simulation / zatul karamah haji ahmad baharul-ulum
publishDate 2008
url http://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/15518/
http://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/15518/1/TP_ZATUL%20KARAMAH%20AHMAD%20BAHARUL-ULUM%20BM%2008_5.PDF
first_indexed 2023-09-18T22:54:02Z
last_indexed 2023-09-18T22:54:02Z
_version_ 1777417733968756736

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