China`s demographic onus and its implications for The Japan-U.S. Alliance: the increasing need for Deterring China`s Aggression against The Senkaku Islands

This paper will focus on the “demographic onus effect” to challenge established cognitions of rising China. The country’s demographic dynamics, especially the trade-off between a military build-up and welfare spending, will most probably lead to what might be called a “geriatric peace” by around 203...

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Main Author:	Matsumura, Masahiro
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Published:	Penerbit UKM 2014
Online Access:	http://journalarticle.ukm.my/8466/ http://journalarticle.ukm.my/8466/ http://journalarticle.ukm.my/8466/1/Masahiro__Matsumura_41%282%29_%28December_2014%29.pdf

id	ukm-8466
recordtype	eprints
spelling	ukm-84662016-12-14T06:47:16Z http://journalarticle.ukm.my/8466/ China`s demographic onus and its implications for The Japan-U.S. Alliance: the increasing need for Deterring China`s Aggression against The Senkaku Islands Matsumura, Masahiro This paper will focus on the “demographic onus effect” to challenge established cognitions of rising China. The country’s demographic dynamics, especially the trade-off between a military build-up and welfare spending, will most probably lead to what might be called a “geriatric peace” by around 2030. This is because, due to its long-time one child policy, China is set to confront an unprecedented ageing population before becoming an advanced industrial country. Until then, however, the Chinese will have the fiscal wherewithal to continue the country’s formidable military accrual. China is also likely to become far more belligerent by manipulating nationalist sentiments at home, alongside using foreign policy to divert growing popular discontent. This paper will analyze China’s demographic dynamics and explore the implications of the ageing population to Japan’s security, with the focus on a possible contingency over the Senkaku Islands as the most likely flash point. It will conclude with policy recommendations for Japan and the U.S. to weather possible China’s bellicosity during the next ten to fifteen years. Penerbit UKM 2014-12 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://journalarticle.ukm.my/8466/1/Masahiro__Matsumura_41%282%29_%28December_2014%29.pdf Matsumura, Masahiro (2014) China`s demographic onus and its implications for The Japan-U.S. Alliance: the increasing need for Deterring China`s Aggression against The Senkaku Islands. Jebat: Malaysian Journal of History, Politics and Strategic Studies, 41 (2). pp. 1-22. ISSN 2180-0251 http://www.ukm.my/jebat/v2/?cont=a&item=1&id_vol=53
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Local University
institution	Universiti Kebangasaan Malaysia
building	UKM Institutional Repository
collection	Online Access
language	English
description	This paper will focus on the “demographic onus effect” to challenge established cognitions of rising China. The country’s demographic dynamics, especially the trade-off between a military build-up and welfare spending, will most probably lead to what might be called a “geriatric peace” by around 2030. This is because, due to its long-time one child policy, China is set to confront an unprecedented ageing population before becoming an advanced industrial country. Until then, however, the Chinese will have the fiscal wherewithal to continue the country’s formidable military accrual. China is also likely to become far more belligerent by manipulating nationalist sentiments at home, alongside using foreign policy to divert growing popular discontent. This paper will analyze China’s demographic dynamics and explore the implications of the ageing population to Japan’s security, with the focus on a possible contingency over the Senkaku Islands as the most likely flash point. It will conclude with policy recommendations for Japan and the U.S. to weather possible China’s bellicosity during the next ten to fifteen years.
format	Article
author	Matsumura, Masahiro
spellingShingle	Matsumura, Masahiro China`s demographic onus and its implications for The Japan-U.S. Alliance: the increasing need for Deterring China`s Aggression against The Senkaku Islands
author_facet	Matsumura, Masahiro
author_sort	Matsumura, Masahiro
title	China`s demographic onus and its implications for The Japan-U.S. Alliance: the increasing need for Deterring China`s Aggression against The Senkaku Islands
title_short	China`s demographic onus and its implications for The Japan-U.S. Alliance: the increasing need for Deterring China`s Aggression against The Senkaku Islands
title_full	China`s demographic onus and its implications for The Japan-U.S. Alliance: the increasing need for Deterring China`s Aggression against The Senkaku Islands
title_fullStr	China`s demographic onus and its implications for The Japan-U.S. Alliance: the increasing need for Deterring China`s Aggression against The Senkaku Islands
title_full_unstemmed	China`s demographic onus and its implications for The Japan-U.S. Alliance: the increasing need for Deterring China`s Aggression against The Senkaku Islands
title_sort	china`s demographic onus and its implications for the japan-u.s. alliance: the increasing need for deterring china`s aggression against the senkaku islands
publisher	Penerbit UKM
publishDate	2014
url	http://journalarticle.ukm.my/8466/ http://journalarticle.ukm.my/8466/ http://journalarticle.ukm.my/8466/1/Masahiro__Matsumura_41%282%29_%28December_2014%29.pdf
first_indexed	2023-09-18T19:52:23Z
last_indexed	2023-09-18T19:52:23Z
_version_	1777406305284128768

China`s demographic onus and its implications for The Japan-U.S. Alliance: the increasing need for Deterring China`s Aggression against The Senkaku Islands

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