New Product Forecasting with Limited or No Data

In the real world, forecasts would always be based on historical data with the assumption that the behaviour be the same for the future. But how do we forecast when there is no such data available? New product or new technologies normally has limited amount of data available. Knowing that forecastin...

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Main Authors:	Zuhaimy, Ismai, Noratikah, Abu, Suliadi, Sufahani
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Published:	AIP Publishing 2016
Subjects:	Q Science (General)
Online Access:	http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/17014/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/17014/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/17014/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/17014/1/New%20Product%20Forecasting%20With%20Limited%20or%20No%20Data.pdf

id	ump-17014
recordtype	eprints
spelling	ump-170142018-07-25T06:52:12Z http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/17014/ New Product Forecasting with Limited or No Data Zuhaimy, Ismai Noratikah, Abu Suliadi, Sufahani Q Science (General) In the real world, forecasts would always be based on historical data with the assumption that the behaviour be the same for the future. But how do we forecast when there is no such data available? New product or new technologies normally has limited amount of data available. Knowing that forecasting is valuable for decision making, this paper presents forecasting of new product or new technologies using aggregate diffusion models and modified Bass Model. A newly launched Proton car and its penetration was chosen to demonstrate the possibility of forecasting sales demand where there is limited or no data available . The model was developed to forecast diffusion of new vehicle or an innovation in the Malaysian society. It is to represent the level of spread on the new vehicle among a given set of the society in terms of a simple mathematical function that elapsed since the introduction of the new product. This model will forecast the car sales volume. A procedure of the proposed diffusion model was designed and the parameters were estimated. Results obtained by applying the proposed diffusion model and numerical calculation shows that the model is robust and effective for forecasting demand of the new vehicle. The results reveal that newly developed modified Bass diffusion of demand function has significantly contributed for forecasting the diffusion of new Proton car or new product. AIP Publishing 2016 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/17014/1/New%20Product%20Forecasting%20With%20Limited%20or%20No%20Data.pdf Zuhaimy, Ismai and Noratikah, Abu and Suliadi, Sufahani (2016) New Product Forecasting with Limited or No Data. AIP Conference Proceedings, 1782 (1). pp. 1-8. ISSN 0094-243X http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4966099 DOI: 10.1063/1.4966099
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Local University
institution	Universiti Malaysia Pahang
building	UMP Institutional Repository
collection	Online Access
language	English
topic	Q Science (General)
spellingShingle	Q Science (General) Zuhaimy, Ismai Noratikah, Abu Suliadi, Sufahani New Product Forecasting with Limited or No Data
description	In the real world, forecasts would always be based on historical data with the assumption that the behaviour be the same for the future. But how do we forecast when there is no such data available? New product or new technologies normally has limited amount of data available. Knowing that forecasting is valuable for decision making, this paper presents forecasting of new product or new technologies using aggregate diffusion models and modified Bass Model. A newly launched Proton car and its penetration was chosen to demonstrate the possibility of forecasting sales demand where there is limited or no data available . The model was developed to forecast diffusion of new vehicle or an innovation in the Malaysian society. It is to represent the level of spread on the new vehicle among a given set of the society in terms of a simple mathematical function that elapsed since the introduction of the new product. This model will forecast the car sales volume. A procedure of the proposed diffusion model was designed and the parameters were estimated. Results obtained by applying the proposed diffusion model and numerical calculation shows that the model is robust and effective for forecasting demand of the new vehicle. The results reveal that newly developed modified Bass diffusion of demand function has significantly contributed for forecasting the diffusion of new Proton car or new product.
format	Article
author	Zuhaimy, Ismai Noratikah, Abu Suliadi, Sufahani
author_facet	Zuhaimy, Ismai Noratikah, Abu Suliadi, Sufahani
author_sort	Zuhaimy, Ismai
title	New Product Forecasting with Limited or No Data
title_short	New Product Forecasting with Limited or No Data
title_full	New Product Forecasting with Limited or No Data
title_fullStr	New Product Forecasting with Limited or No Data
title_full_unstemmed	New Product Forecasting with Limited or No Data
title_sort	new product forecasting with limited or no data
publisher	AIP Publishing
publishDate	2016
url	http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/17014/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/17014/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/17014/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/17014/1/New%20Product%20Forecasting%20With%20Limited%20or%20No%20Data.pdf
first_indexed	2023-09-18T22:23:11Z
last_indexed	2023-09-18T22:23:11Z
_version_	1777415793336647680

New Product Forecasting with Limited or No Data

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